Member Info for Davde

PYUECK it may have been possible to achieve a higher headline price by going down the IPO route however there would have been additional risks and costs associated with that route. FGP have covered themselves to some extent with the First Transit earn out clause. There is no doubt they have not achieved the full asset value however given the market it was maybe the best they could get at the current time. The distribution plan is fairly sensible, they are clearing the decks for the future. I am sure the major institutional investors will have a view but doubt they will pull plug on deal but we will see. For me the issues going forward are what level of rail dividend (profit) will they make and how realistic is the 10% target margin on the road business. For FGP to be valued at say £1.00 it would need to generate circa £120m EBITDA at a P/E ratio of 10, the payment of a dividend may allow a higher P/E ratio and subsequent SP. There are still a lot of unknowns and do suspect we may see management changes to take FGP forward in future.

It has not yet been decided what form the shareholder distribution will take. I personally think it will be a dividend and buy back, what split no idea really but 50/50 sounds about right. FGP have indicated they want to become a dividend paying company again, having less shares makes this easier. They are also planning a further distribution with the earn out £170m (max) in a couple of years, this may influence institutional investors thinking re the £365m distribution. F GP have said distribution will happen this calender year which is by Dec 21 by my reading.

@Twatcher I just disagee with how you sometimes interpret information.

@BH normally would ignore, but 2 posts today have been misleading rather than just negative imv!

@Twatcher how many of the 17 available test s are lateral flow, how long does result take and what cost, not as much competition as you are suggesting!

@Twatcher how many of the paused are lateral flow tests, 6 I believe, odds do not look as bad as you are suggesting.

Mnzs rarely issue an "RNS" for contracts gains. For me it's materiality and a contract value in the £15m-£20m range is less than 2% of current turnover so whilst welcome does not warrant a formal notification. It's a fag packet calculation 300 people @£30,000 plus overhead! It's a good win, cargo is holding up well.

There is no doubt that the management strategy had lacked focus for many years. Coast capital (and other institutional investors) forced FGP to reconsider it's previous strategy, in particular US expansion and to concentrate on releasing shareholder value. As a consequence we should see the disposal of the US assets hopefully with some level of shareholder return. This should leave FGP as a UK based business with bus and rail service provision as it's core businesses to build on. FGP management are far from our if the woods in credibility terms but it does look like they are now heading in the right direction. We should know soon enough the US asset sales returns, subsequent shareholder return and planned investment strategy in remaining businesses. I live in hope as we all deserve a reward for investing in FGP!

This week the WHO said the pandemic worldwide had not yet reached it peak. The governments review on global travel report last week indicated a return to traffic light system for overseas travel. Whilst full details are yet to be published it is very likely that testing will be required before travel, potentially dampening demand due to test costs. MNZS themselves have said 2023 before volumes recover to pre Covid levels. None of these indicate a rapid return to normal in the next year. On the plus side USA internal market is opening up. Australia internal market is opening as is the Austrailia/NZ corridor. MNZS are retaining/winning new business and margin (hopefully) improving. On balance imv the SP has factored in most of this. Wether we breach 400p this year or not is debateable (good if we do) and I will continue to review as more info becomes available. In the interim suspect we are in a holding/consolidation period imv.

The WHO this week said the covid pandemic has yet to reach it peak! The UK is in danger of becoming complacent and you can see the scientist's starting to get twitchy when they see the behaviours in the last week. I still get feeling that many do not grasp how serious this disease is. Falling death rates and reduced hospitalisations due to vaccine are great however vigilance against variants and containing any spread will be a significant public health issue for years to come.

The Bloomberg article is actually quite positive re LFT's and their usage.

@hoverfly inciteful analysis of FGP! I will not be investing in Stagecoach as a consequence.

@Computer909 good summary for the antibody test progress and capacity increases during that period. From what I can see the slippage by one month Oct to Nov to increase capacity was due to ODX the lack of DHSC orders however was not in the control of ODX. ODX has done everything it has been asked for by the government in this period of national crisis. It is wrong to have a go at ODX for failing to deliver antibody tests any frustration should be aimed at HMG. As usual though looking backwards appears to dominate discussion when its the future we should be looking at. I still have trust in the ODX board thet they will deliver a very profitable year, what that level will be is the real question.

Hitting a annual high today and highest we have had for years, hopefully it sticks with a decent outlook update, in particular order book. Now I am away for a tissue to stop my nose bleed at this giddy height!

From where I sit ODX has successfully built production capacity, both infrastructure and people. It ready to roll out the tests required. The only remaining thing is the level of demand for these tests to be evidenced. I am just looking forward to when the first government quarterly order drops and what impact that will have on the SP. My hunch is first order will be for circa 10m to 15m tests. Hopefully we will find out soon and discussion can move on from looking backwards to looking forward to a prosperous future.

Whilst I fully support the objective to stop untreated sewage discharges into rivers, it is not clear to me how this can be done without some very significant infrastructure improvements. The climate change impact of increased flooding is only likely to exacerbate this problem. It is clear that the monitoring of the environmental impact on the water quality is not fully understood, given most of these outlets are not monitored, never mind in real time, excluding visual. Hence before embarking on a massive infrastrucure spending plan it maybe worthwhile doing more monitoring ( que DVRG/MWG) to establish what problems they are trying to solve! Rant over!

JPMorgan revised its rating from overweight to neutral although revised target price to 120p. My personal view is that RTN has someway to go, as suspect once reopened fully RTN will be far more profitable than most expect in particular Wagamama. It may however be several months before we see this feeding into the SP but very happy with progress made by RTN and the SP to date.

It is likely that nothing will change with the SNP being the largest party, wether the SNP and the other independence parties gain an overall majority is the question. If they do the position will be broadly the same as it is currently, so unclear why the Telegraph would suggest turbulance in market, apart from scaremongering! MNZS like many companies do not make the majority of earning in the UK so no issues for me.

Antibody tests use blood, antigen is nasal/mouth swab.

The removal of social distancing measures are the key to restaurant business's becoming truely profitable again imv. I await with interest what the review into social distancing recommends, as any social distancing e.g. 1m rule will impact profitability. The outcome will impact SP, hopefully favourably.