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Yep consensus of 185-190 between the big players is about right and would do very nicely.
Lukashenko has just been ordered by his boss to start suggesting the idea of meaningful negotiations after admitting they are in stalemate. Pretty standard procedure to demand talks to buy for time, but those statements usually come straight from the Kremlin. This time feels different , lukashenko is the sock puppet that gets wheeled out to say whatever putin doesnt want to been to be saying. So is lukashenko actually touting a meaningful withdrawal from Ukraine? Coukd this be the start of a russian withdrawal under pressure from china or just trying to use the winter for a pause. I know the market will go into over drive if any suggestion of that dead end war coming to an end.
Reckon that's a good move D9ber. 140 appears to be holding despite best efforts by bots and traders to sink it. With what seems like a very good outlook and a huge disparity between SP and consensus - it can only go up. The main issue right now appears to be wars of choice. Bibi needed a 9/11 to distract from his power grab , Iran needed a way to prop up their deeply unpopular government with some kind of populist sentiment. Hey presto Hamas delivers. With literally everything to loose, Hamas launch a relatively unprovoked suicidal attack on its heavily armed and aggressive neighbours. So we can deduce that between covid, ukraine , Gaza, Taiwan, there appears to be a coordinated effort to destabilise the west and shore up dictatorships. The question is - what is the next act? The US expedites ' made in Mexico' which is likely to catch on if its cost effective. Is that enough to shut down the plan? Or will Xi continue with the plan? Next up is Taiwan when defence budget are fully stretched. Who knows. I am fully in at 148 unfortunately so I just hope Xi sees sense.
Compared to the other airlines, this reaction is more of a shrug. The traders tried to trigger a sale and it failed. Why? Because unlike the other airlines the sp here is massively undervalued. Its debt and scope means that investors won't touch it. But....for how long can they deny that IAG is managing the debt and bucking the trend when it comes to profits. I think we might finally see some common sense easing back in the next few days as people realise- 'oh wait , the company isnt struggling, it's actually doing quite well.' Despite impending world wars and the strongmen leaders flexing their muscles, people still fly.
xi, putin , bibi and the ayatollahs have shown the world one thing - we would rather see the world burn to ashes before we let anyone challenge our grip on power. these dictatorships need wars to survive. so the world will burn. investors know that. only a miracle can bring the share price higher. the poor maligned 40 year old white men of the western world have also had enough of being succesful and rich and want to send the woke left a message - we will vote in strongmen like trump and boris - they may tank our economies, destroy alliances of decades, take freedoms that have existed since the second war - but we will be damned if we let a *** man wear a skirt , a woman run a boardroom or very specifi people wear scarves in a very specific way in a public place! we have always had the right to challenge a nancy in the street and how dare anyone tell me i cant enjoy a little casual racism like the good old days. its only a joke. unless you cant get work because you have a certain tone or hat. but, just a bit of fun, need to have a thicker skin. preferably pale though. the world is doomed. mainly because of idiot men and small minded beliefs. but doomed all the same. well done us men. good job.
Interesting tug of war happening here with the SP. World war vs Good results. If bots an daytraders are now jumping in at 140 in anticipation of riding a wave upwards towards results but selling before results day, we would expect to see a big bounce off 140
Unfortunately I jumped in at 148 with a 10k addition to my existing 30k
But, this is how the game works. Everyone panics and jumps out - that is where the profit in the market comes from. If ever there was a time to buy it's now. 140 is last support before 127 but I cant see a company with record profits and good forward booking numbers going to its lowest support level. If theres going to be a world war people will still want to fly. It's quite clear that Xi and bunker grandpa will happily take the world to the brink to shore up their dictatorships so I am prepared to keep that money in until the dust settles and the new world order is established. I'm brushing up on mandarin as we speak.
Ezj has a history of this type of inverse reaction, but I think it shows how much that share in particular is traded rather than long term investors. It doesnt matter what the results are, the date itself is the starter gun for profit taking sells. Anyone who doesn't sell before this ends up in a big dip that can last weeks. So it's a self fuelling action. IAG seems to suffer less possibly because it has much further to go in sp recovery. So a good result is more likely to being upside rather than EZJ that recovered much quicker to a fair value. What most brokers and commenters agree on, is that IAG is still very undervalued.
I think IAG just got caught up in the - 6% from EZJ today. It will shrug it off next week most likely. Even better if tomorrow but cant see it unless something amazing happens. Hope it does come back next week otherwise it could end up heading back below the 140 - which would really mess with 148.50 DT lol
It's a blip, as Ford says the price will normalise over the coming days for EZJ. The new normal for airlines shares. I think with real investors mostly gone, airlines are making do with daytraders and bots - which is why we see these strange patterns. They are happy to take the profit from the run up to results rather than on the results, so they have learned to sell out before everyone else so they can get in earlier on the lows.
Absolutely a win for me. If ftt comes back I've made about 600 in 7 business days from a tiny initial stake. I know that this luck only lasts while it is still undervalued. It is almost impossible to do this type of when a stock is fairly valued. However I've shown myself that by only asking for a tiny return I can get daily profits, instead of my long term strategy (I still have a big lump in which is languishing at BE).
But all the daily tiny amounts are going back in to DT pot. So eventually that DT pot is going to grow enough that returns start to increase. I'm not gonna get rich from this but I could add 25% to my house deposit if I have a good run.
Woohoo! I've done three day trades in the last week and got a net gain of £500 from a £10000 tranche. Painstaking trying to get a 1-2p move each time. The last two days trades only netted about £150 after fees and ridiculous Spanish transaction tax. Not gonna moan though. 500 profit over 1 week from a measly 10k stake is not bad going. For tomorrow my pot for trading is now 10500. I'll be over the moon if I can get 100 every day. Still have my main lump in so I dont get spiked.
Watch AAL if you want to know what's happening tomorrow. It was slowly edging upwards after tanking 6%. I think markets need to digest gaza and then we should be forward looking to results.