Member Info for danl90

It's odd because when you watch youtube videos of the target audience buying this stuff they all claim the quality is good and so do the comments

Also when influencers say "shall i do a haul" the answer is always "so many of your asked for Shein"

It's seems your one experience wasn't the majority but you're a big "investor" why are you ordering from Shein anyway?

Also "The cheap material was beyond cheap looking….it was gross." - and what from boohoo or plt isn't in this bracket? Again the cult shines through as though this isn't boohoo - boohoo is the same quality (or worse if you watch the youtubve reviews)

Also youtube - yeah it's not twitter so not relevant? Only gets 100's million of views

I'm always so negative? I'm certainly not

I just don't live in the boohoo cult. Guess what, there are clouds on the horizon (shein, capex spend etc) and there have been hiccups (fleas and ESG)

This board is like a cult. When I first mentioned Shein and tik tok i think the answer was "no one cares about tik tok" but then we all get excited when boohoo trended on twitter - wow we are really in touch with the target audience and future generations

True - I don't think Shein actually exists

Boohoo has 0 competitors. It is 100% of the market and growing it's market share!

the moat is speed of delivery and brand

It seems madness that no one on this board accepts this as a risk. Boohoo destroyed Topshop as it was faster to pick up on new trends (data driven online test and repeat model), cheaper (as didn't have stores) and carried a lower working capital and investment model (don't have to stock +1,000 stores in every size and colour just use test and repeat to estimate size)

Now Shein is here which is FAR cheaper and can be faster at producing items (or can copy in c.2 days) there is 0 risk to a huge chunk of customers who are price conscious?

Boo has a few options
- rely on brand strength (possible but as the data shows customers will also shop Shein)
- better quality products at the same low price (what impact to margin? - huge fall in share price)
- faster at delivery meeting customer convenience (huge benefit for UK market but behind in EU and ROW - where revenue growth was negative!!!! - and similar for US but more expensive for delivery). Huge investment needed in capex to fix this! Asos shares a few years back tanked on the back of higher capex costs. Ultimately its a the way to win but will be expensive to build the logistics moat also Shein could copy
- ESG - yeah boo is miles a head of Shein only boo's name is mud and Shein operates in China so you'll never hear anything about what we know goes on there (but for the customer it's out of sight out of mind)

I'm not saying it's over for boohoo but as I said months back as the market goes flat (ie platform vs platform) there will be pressure on boohoo which competes on price as the Chinese will be cheaper

EBITDA margin promised to "investors" (Spicey and co) is c.10% even a 1ppt fall is a huge chunk off that bottom line!

Encouraged that they "maintained" their holding but haven't added?

And you’ve checked with all the other “investors” that they also agree? Is it just a verbal agreement that you’ll hold the line at £3 or have you spilled the blood of a virgin on a full moon all while wearing your new da baby varsity jackets?

Hopefully as the price rises the founders can go back to selling shares? Are they in your pact? As they were selling their hard earned shares at 285p pre covid. Yeah they want the price to get to £6 as then they get them back from you. So they want to sell their shares at 285p and want you to pony up to hand some back at 0 risk to them

Doesn’t sound like they are quite on board with your hardline £3 as you think or again is this more boohoo board cult nonsense?

Apart from when it went through 300p in the last 12 months?

Just so you know the share price falls when there is less stock held and being bought up so by fact that 12 months ago the price was £4 and now near £3 your very incorrect. It appears the big funds which drove the shares up left (see TR1s)

Don’t worry fella just believe in the cult. Ignore all external factors. Remember tik tok isn’t relevant as well. Competitors? Boohoo has none! Every single piece of clothing that leaves the factory is pristine quality like something from Savill row

Oh also inflation might be a risk for you “investors” too but I guess that’s nonsense?

Very little risk?

From the chap who mocked about fleas and is down 20% since

Yeah this stock is rock solid

Wyndrum you're right. People on here act like a cult. You dare sell Boohoo? Based on risk or new information? How dare you!

The bit in this article I like is that the payback on this investment is just two years! That’s madness and this will be a very accretive deal

I do agree coal will be a very cash generative activity for glencore but I think the aim needs to be to use this cash to deleverage and not just throw back to shareholders. When the income from coal looks like it is falling the capital structure will need to be better to ensure shareholders keep value

and do you know how much it cost them to put 5,000 watches on the debenhams website?

Just wondering had she ordered a boohoo dress? or say a karen millen dress?

Wonder why it arrived in a boohoo bag (unless it was a boohoo dress) and not a debenhams bag - may be they are still being designed?

sorry not sure what you're on about Bruce

"All my early indicators are pointing in that direction as we exit the pandemic" - like boohoo posting 40% growth over lockdown 1?

I do believe in the high street as people enjoy shopping but for the demographic that boohoo iss there is no high street. When you walk round town its either primark bags (not boo's core shoppers) or zara (room for both)

there is no other place to shop (in a material sense that would worry boohoo)

To double the shares or the payouts won't trigger. In my mind something needs to be in the plan to make this happen. They can't be relying on BAU and reframed ESG to drive this growt

My ideas (not all are silver bullets)
- US distribution
- EU acquisition
- ESG
- NASDAQ listing
- Debenhams launch overseas (meaningful traction growth - proof of concept that marketplace can roll out internationally)

Any others? But if this is just BAU I think the business will be stagnant for a while

Originally you were saying the business has been putting cash aside from May and then using linear trading (even though the business is seasonal) you calculated that there will be increasing cash each month. That isn't true as the CFO says cash is higher at certain points of the year

We know payments to the bank start in November (RNS) but as I say to you this will be a low cash period for the business as we are buying stock. Instead as you've assumed linear cash generation you happen to think cash should be up by then ticking up nicely at £3.5m a month. When actually in the real world we will likely have less cash in Nov not the extra £20m you've calculated

You see you're understanding of the business and cash and use of averaging is just silly. Why try and defend it?

"What use is even a 6 month period to me?" well for one it will help you realise when the raise might come and also what size it would be. Again independent advice (people on the inside) estimate £70m but your linear approach to cash generation has it at c.£20m. Why? Again as cash doesn't come in a linear fashion and not every £ of profit converts into cash (the business reinvests)

"Please tell me how much money we're going to spend on Xmas and Valentines stock," well you can rough have a go at this. You can see (from todays annual accounts) the skew of revenue to Christmas and you know the margin. So you have the components to calculate the rough stock requirement for Christmas

"how much cash we're going to have in the bank in November and December" - rough calc cash we have now less the number you get to above (cash being inverse of NWC)

"averaging is for idiots, please tell me what our revenue and costs are going to be for each month from now until July 2022" - you don't need this. The point is you've underestimated the cash pinch in Nov/ Dec. After Dec the business will be cash rich

"As said above, I am averaging, because unlike yourself, I am not trying to establish what our cash position is likely to be in November" - well you should as otherwise it's for 0

"I haven't assumed flat income, I was merely treating CF as if the company has a flat income in my calculations, as that allowed me to roughly estimate how much equity we may need to raise" - again this is a huge misunderstanding. The equity raise is related to liquidity. The need for the £70m in terms of liquidity will be greater at certain points than others. Why? Because of NWC. This is why you're getting £20m as an asnwer and the independent analysis is getting £70m. Working capital is also a HUGE factor which you're ignoring as you're assuming linear cash generation of £3.5m a month. If Card buy say £30m of Christmas stock thats a big difference to cash but again none existent in your world

"We could establish that the company likely needs to raise, say, £20m" - yes you could if you assume linear cash generation and avoid NWC

it is "very low" when you consider to normal business which would generate a debtor was my point. This business turns stock into cash instantly for the vast majority of transactions. A typical business turns stock into a debtor which typically pay you 30 days from the month end (so average 45 days) and then cash

Tovers has shown you the revenue difference which again shows you can't average a SEASONAL business! yes things are unknown but you can make educated assumptions around them not just ignore them entirely which is what you're doing. if you were trying to make a point over a bullet payment in12 months time you'd be correct (as all seasonality is neutral over a 12 month period) but here we are trying to see how much cash Card might have to November and your view of averaging is just because you're not smart enough to account for seasonality - it's just wrong

"My original point was that I used averaging, because there are so many unknowns in the equation, and if you start using incorrect numbers in calculations that involve millions of pounds, the compounding effect can often leave you with numbers that are significantly more misleading than if you simply used averaging" - no as when it gets to the summer months the effect of seasonality inverts which is what I said

You think banks who monitor covenants month on month are just averaging revenue? No they take an educated view on how trading occurs. Items such as VAT are paid quarterly so it builds for two months and then paid. A NWC profile element

You didn't say "full of cash" but your averaging give you the calculation that the business will have excess cash in November but again as I say this is because your assuming flat income across the year when that isn't the case. Again it's a seasonal business and you can't assume. Your conclusion of spare cash in Nov is as you've averaged

"As I’ve said before now, so what if CF is ‘pregnant with stock’ during the Xmas period?" - it means we have spent a tonne of cash on stock. NWC is the opposite to your cash. And if you expect big trading (Card stores do around Christmas) then you take your cash and you turn it into stock which you hope to sell for more cash. So given Christmas means a tonne of new and specialist lines the business will be using a huge chunk of cash to buy stock. So NWC will be higher and cash will be lower. If the bank want a big payment in Nov or Dec it's likely Card won't have cash on hand unless the bank wants paying with Christmas cards

CFO - It should be noted that net debt at the half and full year period ends is lower than intra-year peaks, reflecting usual trading patterns and working capital movements

"hence why I used averaging, as that at least gives us an idea of how much cash we need to find, albeit it doesn’t tell us when we’ll need any of that cash" - exactly you can't average it doesn't work for a seasonal business!

"How and when we raise cash is irrelevant to me." - this is t

"For instance, do we know when our receivables are due?" - sorry buddy you really don't get this business do you?

So in a store a person walks in and buys a card and they pay cash or by card. The stock goes straight into cash. There is no receivable. Card has a very low receivable balance which will relate to partnerships or maybe some corporate sales

The point your averaging gives you is that somehow the business is full of cash in November/ December when its likely the opposite as the business will be pregnant with stock ready for the busiest trading period of the year (you might not be aware but Christmas is key for a card retailer)

"If 40% of our revenue is made around Christmas, why would we struggle to buy stock for Valentine’s Day? That makes no sense whatsoever." - i'm not saying we would struggle to buy stock for Valentines but my point is that we don't know the amount of debt repayment up to this point. So yes Card might generate a lot of cash over Christmas ready for Valentines but if the bank want £40m over Nov to Feb then that will take a huge chunk over of business which generates c.£80m of FCF so again won't be easy while also considering gearing which the business needs to reduce to attract more investors

It's not guess work! You can't just assume a business makes all it's money equally across a year and then also that the cash comes in equally. This is a VERY seasonal business. As I said Paperchase made 40% of its profit in December so Card is likely the same yet you're putting it all equal waited? You're the one guessing and it's leading you to make very incorrect assumptions