Member Info for danl90

You'd almost think these "accountants" know what they are doing

None of the MW team worked at Pennywise as far as I can see?

But I think today is very real lesson on why you can't just throw effort into anything. The cost of a blip in the core business when you are so highly rated leads to this

You can't just chase revenue aimlessly. You have a model and forecast expectations which at this rate of p/e you NEED to hit you can't slip

It's about value not about profit

Where is Streets and his "investors"?

The line was £3

Where is Streets?

@k you don’t live in the real world

Back to bed buddy

@harchris you can prove the point. Pick two stocks in the same sector. The one with more debt bounces about more. That’s the way it works

Just walked through Manchester and buses are rammed

Will get out early tomorrow and see what the morning rush looks like (always get the steps in and a coffee)

@tweed - the bit you're missing is that debt drives your risk beta

A stock with higher debt reacts with more volatility than a business with lower gearing. It's too simple to say the share price fall was just revenue related. How much it falls considers the risk beta

Would be great if these are at a higher margin than the boo brands. I was shocked when JL said they would be at a lower margin as that's not the way I had imagined it to be (higher price point so more margin was my thought)

This is a good upside if so!

I'm not too frustrated atm. My average atm is around 300p so not too bad (but I guess if you consider flea gate and selling at 367p or so then reinvesting then my average is ever lower!)

I did highlight the nuance as I think it is that which you have missed. This isn't the core business pushing out for wholesale this is debenhams which was not in the guidance so still a lot of things aren't on the table ie wholesale of boo brands in core markets and stores for example. So I think there's a lot ruled out. I think again you're mixing the part between Big picture and a flea at the end of a dog tails and declaring this a change in strategy when it isn't (someone highlighted Debs RoW revenue was £88m so even IF this was a big part of that it's peanuts so the £2.3 billion the rest of the business will do)

If this was like the asos / nordstrom deal you'd have more of a point but in Kuwait, Saudi and other middle east countries which aren't core then it's just a side show and a nice way to prove concept

For reference the asos deal has some asking questions about growth by picking a physical retailer - again wholesale revenue might go up but if growth then slows? - ouch, asos shares will not be starting with a 4 or 5 anytime soon.
Can Asos rely on Nordstron to pump 20% growth yoy? Not so sure and if they can't there is little they can do to control the situation

https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/asos-takes-dowdy-route-us-fashion-2021-07-12/
(just for my view I think that asos is after some cash. they realise the capex spend they need for US is too much and they risk losing to Amazon so nordstrom accelerates this while giving some cash back for more warehouses. Also 350 stores across the US isn't exactly locking yourself out theres still huge market asos can serve)

I think the stat is that Amazon adds roughly one warehouse a day! madness

Can't argue with that

I thought i'd done ok at 92p (from the 115p top). Then got some more at 82p!

This is now a very bad investment. But long term we know buses are a driver of the economy and the Gov supports

Just be a longer hold than I thought back to £1

@rag not see my post yesterday - seems like "this industry" has even realised it's in the platform game now. Think that's the second trade rag which seems to say my part word for word. Finally going to be brave?

https://www.retail-week.com/tech/becoming-amazon-should-more-retailers-develop-their-own-tech-platforms/7040223.article

It's not the "rag trade" industry. It's about platform and maintaining that margin profile. Don't get too excited this is a small wholesale deal. Get a few more of these done in the odd corners of the world. Don't waste management team launching here when there are much bigger fish to fry. Also if you hear JL at the last results update RoW sales are falling due to slow delivery so given this is a ready to go distribution you might as well piggy back

On the margin point again this deal has a nuance as if it does bring a lower margin management can hide that in "debenhams" and not in the core business, as this is a debenhams partnerships after all and not a direct sale of boo brands into a unique third party. But I'm guessing here I'm just saying it's nuanced way of being able to do these wholesale deals while not killing the goose that lays the golden egg. Actually when you think on this Debenhams was left out of forecast expectations so this might be why. I do remember thinking it was a very odd move at the time

Key will be a full launch in US or Europe. This is different as it's a ready to go partner in an odd corner of the world. The point also is that this isn't wholesale in an area where Boo brands already operate (even PLT is small here). So you're not swapping £1 out of £1 for 50p in a £1 and cannibalizing

It's a big world and scale will be key

https://www.debenhams.com/category/shoes - (hover over shoes and accessories)

15 or so new shoe brands launched this morning. All at once - wonder how that happened?

I don't think either of you understand the commercials of the deal

Nice deal but small beer. Given they already run it let them carry on

Boo needs to focus on a full on launch of Debenhams in US or Europe. That's the big prize

Just to say this is a wholesale deal so the revenue from selling the clothes is theirs not ours. Boo will be getting the wholesale price

Won't move the needle but good to see. Big US launch is the game changer but more needed on UK website too

https://www.debenhams.com/page/concessionaire-brands

Growing set of brands but 100% need more

Still need some of the bigger names in beauty as well

I'm mixed on the impact of mask

In part i think mask make people feel safe but on the other hand continuing to wear masks also means the "scare factor" remains

If covid is to become like the flu then we need to ditch masks in total

My view is that the gov should offer N95 masks to all so you are no longer tied to whether others wear theirs

Individual choice

But long term we need to drop masks or risk the scare factor forever on public transport but i do understand for some it is still a safety blanket

Boohoo bought trade and assets. This legal risk doesn't follow

In effect they are suing to gain access to a government scheme

@people power that isn't how HFT works

https://www.retail-week.com/tech/becoming-amazon-should-more-retailers-develop-their-own-tech-platforms/7040223.article

Second article here from a "trade rag" about platforms. Turns out they are end-to-end logistic solutions after all (for the second time)

Some of you might recall a lot of back and forth between me and another but I think this being the second industry piece (ie not just "accountants" - which actually were the bankers and fund mangers that own this stock to the tune of billions) that confirms this and what these businesses do and why they are so valuable

Again this article does the part that the other person was struggling with and details the differences in the platforms and what each is doing (interesting the use Boo, Hut (Ingenuity) nd Next (Total Platform) as the examples. Boo being one side, hut being the other and Next in the middle. There is then pure marketpalce like boo's debenhams

Worth a read and explains why boo has such a moat around it as it will be very difficult now for anyone to catch up to these platforms. Yes platforms will go head to head but that's not quite here. What boo needs to do is make sure their platforms works globally. US distribution is essential

But also that 25% margin for a marketplace business shows what Debenhams could bring. Say Debs gets to £100m sales at 25% that's £25m. That lift to our margin will drive our P/e and could be very exciting. Further that if Debs goes on holiday!

Very exciting and lets you know why you don't own a clothing reatailer. They multiple for 12 - 14x (so go buy JD). You own a platform business and you want to champion that all the way to the bank!

I think this is a bit basic. Online alone Debenhams was doing £400m of revenue. Boohoo last year was £1,800m so it’s not insignificant

The point of Debenhams more so is it is a stable for the all brands which will not be out and out successes to the same extent as PLT and Boo

In a reality it’s a smart move as boo can advertise (which raises awareness and refreshes the brand) just Debenhams rather than having to advertise each individual brand and end up spending lots of cash just to spin it’s wheels

At the end of the day it was £55m for something which to return that value to shareholders at a low multiple of 20x only needs to contribute £3m of profit which seems very achievable

If the multiple increases (marketplaces have high multiples) and you think £3m is low then it’s a good deal

Also if they learn to do the marketplace model here tehy can push that overseas with very little risk hence why I was saying a launch of Debenhams overseas would be a value driver in a big way

@bankfool - i'd say stay away from youtube videos. better with bloomberg for views on inflation etc. the reflation driver has been coming off for a few weeks now (bond yields lower despite huge US jobs add and consumer prices rising above expectations)

This sell of is delta risk

I'm not saying i think lockdown 4.0. i'm just saying taht is what is driving the sell off today

If you disagree then buy stock. It's a market someone sells and someone buys

Or there is Streets and people power who hold forever and make no money! ha