Member Info for danl90

Store in York was quite although it was later on. Still had people buying though. I think as you say with amazing weather there’s other things to do and I think those getting in for a card and bits and bobs probably shop earlier

Past a store on a Leeds city outlet and that was busy. Rent on the site must be nothing and there were people in and the till busy

I think Father’s Day is a good area to fight back but I imagine it’s smaller than Mother’s Day?

@mark good to hear these little anecdotes. Just to say there are two stores in manchester city center and both are ALWAYS busy. I'd also add that I was in Harrogate the other week and again that stores was crazy! I actually couldn't believe it

Also a friend of mine (also a Card shareholder) was in Westfield yesterday and said the same of that store

Finally I'd also say that on IG I've seen tonnes of stories with people dragging balloons through town getting ready for parties etc

I really would love Card to get a deal with deliveroo or uber eats. I don't think it would be huge revenue wise but the marketing (lad bible taking p*ss out of guys on a bike with a bag of balloons trailing) would be great and never mind moonpig later cut off we would be within an hour!

Just to say on the RI. It sucks but that cash will go to growth or allow flexibility for it. I think the £70m needs putting into perspective. Across FY18 and FY19 Card paid £85m ANNUALLY in dividends. yeah we will throw in £70m now but you'll get it back and some in my view - this is before we get the app going, deliveroo partnership and then overseas partnerships (news on one of these would be great)

that's the plan rag! Keep racking those free shares

I wouldn't say it's genius. Day trading is more fluke than anything

But just to say I bought back in this morning. Few more free shares

Might get choppy depending on inflation later but JP seems chilled so I’m banking he’s got this call right

Just trying to help you understand this business rag. You’re off in dream world again thinking somehow selling coast will offset PLT

This is again a bit like the time you claimed asos own brands were shooting the lights out and as I showed you in reality the revenue growth was flat

I’m only helping you.

It's a lot of sex toys to bridge a £1.5billion revenue gap!

Do Shein/ PLT/ boohoo shoppers shop on Debenhams? Not likely so the broader offering of grey pound clothes doesn't help you win the £1.6billion core business battle?

Sort of irrelevant from that point of view really. Important to understand the "nuances" of fashion. It's not yellow

Sort of pointless to keep posting about it then?

So why does the price go down? You never answer this

@lorenzo you’re right the banks want out/ deleveraged ASAP hence such a high penalty for not hitting payment targets

I might regret not topping up but sold 80p Friday and bought back lower so I have a handful of free shares.

Long term there is clear upside here and this business isn't going bust but I think better to see where the dust settles and how dilutive a raise might be. I have the cash to hand as I'll happily support a raise so much that online growth can then be accelerated

Nice plug in the times article as to how cheap our cards are!

Sorry i think what's been missed from today's chat is that the reason for the £70m raise is to not suffer the £5m penalty. The business doesn't need to do a raise and the banks will keep where they are. But in part the banks are forcing a raise by saying "do it and you won't get hit with £5m penalty"

If the business doesn't raise and they try to hit all the targets from organic cash flow they will 1) suffer £5m penalty and 2) likely every penny goes to the bank and nothing goes to growth

Yes Card has started online journey but more will need to be spent and so far no one knows they are online so big advertising will be needed (moonpig spent an additional £13m last year on top of normal spend)

In my view (and this is harsh) Card EBITDA will land at c.£50m which is a prudent case. £80m in 2019 slash by 30% (aggressive) and then £6m goes to online marketing

£50m EBITDA but then there is growth in online, stores are cash generative and then strong balance sheet mean other agreements with overseas supermarkets can be agreed securely

P/e possibly 10x - 12x. If online booms? 14x?

On a bottom end £500m valuation there is clear upside here. If you think the 30% cut is too steep then again more upside

thoughts?

@cneighbour

"Darcy Willson-Rymer, Chief Executive, said:

"I am pleased we have secured increased banking facilities, which afford the Group the headroom required to focus on realising the growth strategy. In particular, enhancing our card-led proposition through all sales channels and accelerating the increase in our capability and capacity to fulfil sales demand via our online channel, and so capitalise upon the move to online adopted by more customers over the last year."

How do you know this? and if so why does the price fall?

I think this is a fair view and interesting from a cash flow point of view. In part this is encouraging but also the problem

Almost every single penny of cash would get swallowed into the pre-payment. This is why I think a raise will happen as although not needed from a liquidity or solvency point of view it is from a growth point of view

We can't keep sitting here and saying "online". That needs growth and cash. Look at N brown, swithcing to online doesn't mean online sales just emerge

Card can certainly win. But it needs to invest for growth and not be paying back this debt

how is it you know this?

"P/E is not a useful comparison for companies. For example, P/E doesn't tell you how much debt or cash a company has." - wrong!

PP1 for someone with so much "learning" he isn't the smartest

Debt isn't an issue depending on cashflow. Debt can be used to accelerate growth. Also debt is cheapest for of financing and ultimately and can improve ROCE that you say is a good calc

Card Factory's equity raise isn't a response of the business being bad or crippled by debt. The company was paying £85m in dividends annually (company today has market cap of £250m) as it is such a cash generative business. The board perhaps should have paid down some debt rather than those insane dividends

But when those stores get firing and the £70m raise can be used to drive online growth - wow!

I’m saying they should not that they will

CD&R is the PE group that own Americans greetings

Left field but CD&R (owners of the US business that owns Clintons) should take the £70m stake

It is unusual for PE to take a stake in a listed business but CD&R did this with SIG last year!

They can take the £70m stake and buy a call option for more

@pursestrings they have pushed prices 59p range is now 69p. But you're right would it be awful if this was 75p? or 80p?

In teh co-op yesterday and i couldn't believe how expensive cards were

we need more partnerships with retailers overseas!

I bailed out at 80.5p

The bit for me was the £5m penalty for not hitting payment targets. I have never seen that before from a bank. Very aggresive

Also customer shopping numbers were down but buying more. We are all buying more as we are happy to "relief" spend but long term that will normalise. Customer numbers down suggests there has been a shift in shopping habits which might be difficult to claw back

Between now and a June update will it be better on current trading? My view. No. The weather has been awful!