Member Info for damofarl

some interesting posts; thanks all - i do wonder whether as someone suggested it is all a bit of sour grapes/paper talk.

The time frame doesn't make sense - the assets were on the block for a while so surely the Exxon sale announcement would have been NNPC have bought at x £ having undertook pre emptive rights to match highest bid?

I don't think SEP losing a partner/financing partner is material - it's 20% shareholder MAU (ultimately owned by the Indonesian govt), which is very Africa focused always seemed a source of funding, irrespective of SEP cashflows.

Maybe that's the issue (if there really is one) - the Nigerian govt not wanting a significant enlarged producer (Seplat/Mobil) over which another state has significant interest/influence.

Gut feeling, SEP seem to have good relationships with NNPC, are aligned with the desire for a Nigerian 'champion' and it's a done deal. But then this is Nigeria, where oiled palms are never far away....

prionace; what a load of codswallop. When's your next great work of fiction out?

opulentia; spot on again.

You, me and EVR will still be here come Monday. Till then, chin chin.

opulentia: spot on that!

So what would you say, a stand alone/seperated EVR US based on sales of $3 billion would warrant as a market cap on it's own?

nonegspleeze; intersting find that; on the face of it, deal off, but going down through the report, when highlighting it's pre emptive rights, this sale was on the blocks for a considerable period of time with a number of interested parties....surely NNPC would have taken up those rights then?

This part of the report is what interests me - ......"According to Wood Mackenzie, because this deal is a corporate acquisition, NNPC has no rights to pre-empt a deal under the Joint Operating Agreement (JOA),"; my reading is that SEP and NNPC have aligned interests, good relations, which if this report is correct will surely strain such.

More knowledgeable minds than mine will answer you better than me, in due course. Irrespective, welcome to SEP; with or without Exxon assets, this will do you well

PUTUP; thanks again; totally got it now!

As a personal comment, i've noted the numerous comments on here, variously describing you, as 1 posting as 6, being a shorter/paid shorter, verbose, dellusionist, posts so often doesn't have a life, superior etc etc.

Personally i have only ever found you informative (albeit your technical knowledge/detail has taken me a while to grasp!), positive on GKP, and pragmatic in countering the "this is going to reach the sky" dreamers. Invariably i see your posts dismissed not because of there accuracy or lack of , but because they are not what others want to see - they can't challenge the detail so besmirch the messenger.

Personally, i very much thank you for your posts, your patience and willingness to inform people like me. These boards are full of spivs with agendas; if you have one, it's to temper run away dreams, whilst reinforcing the value herin.

For that, Thank You.

putup; thanks, got that.

So, if i was to take a worst case example, post (major) CRP, we get 15% of daily production until field depletion.

Am i in the right ballpark?

Yes, a significant proportion of production/profit is Russia originated but EVR, is a worldwide company.

A cursory glance at just three of their North American plants shows they provide 'economic benefit' of £480 million in just those 3 locales; or put another way , just those wages/taxes/community donations nearly equals EVR's current market cap.

If one takes a worst case scenario, of sanctions/nationalization/taken private, just those 3 assets would reap more than the current market cap - and as the biggest rail steel provider to the US, and biggest employer in their locales, i don't see them shutting it.

Following the fundamentals - that's my perspective.

That's perspective

tartine; this was in their last update.....

"In 2021 we generated significant free cash flow of $86 million..........Genel expects to generate free cash flow of up to $200 million in 2022, pre dividend payments, at a Brent oil price of $75/bbl
An increase or decrease in Brent of $10/bbl impacts annual cash by $50 million"

valueS/PUTUP; many thanks your contributions, for educating me.

I'm not going to pretend i totally understand CRP/the R factor - but having followed all the discussion on such, understand their importance, so thanks for that.

Please humour (aid) me on this, and forgive my ignorance; i feel i might be finally nailing the importance of such!

Lets say the following:
'income' is $1000 being 100 bbls produced at $10; 80% of that is CRP oil/money; once the CRP is depleted we revert to agreed share from profit bbls until field depletion - lets say 10% - so on these simplistic figures post CRP we would get 10 bbls @ $10 = $100

Am i finally getting it?

Apreciate your responses/clarification

arsenal58; no offence taken! I do find a calculator useless unless you have figures to input, calculate, and what i was trying to garner from learned knowledgeable people was not what the figures in the excellent presentation at that date equalled, but what actual production might look like going forward; i.e. actual output from reducing production and for how long; then i'd have some ball park figures for my calculator to assuage my ignorance and lack of belief.

Levity aside, no offence taken.

zengas; thanks for that on Conoco/Medco

I should say as well, i did understand your point on adjustment to ultimate purchase price paid - i was just confused as to the mechanics; I was reading that as beneficial owner as of 01/01/21, we would have received 12 months profit income - i know see that rather than receiving money for a years ownership, to only pay it back, it will be netted off as per your point. Which only leaves the questions, what was last year's production and what will it contribute/net off.

Either way agreed looks rosy. I do also think the Exxon staff will bring great expertise to SEP

Scandiexpat; for US google marketwatch, type in say IVR (no recommendation), and if you scroll down the left side you'll see 'competitors' which will give you an idea of the plethora of businesses in the mortgage loaning REIT sphere. This site will lead you to comparative levels of info as the UK - i would thoroughly recommend reading the earnings transcripts, which aid understanding of how these vehicles work - and the risks.

I'm not concerned with $ changes per se, i feel these things go around; good luck, and hope that site helps

i note we've 'slipped' a month again though......

As for where we are in 3/5 years etc if the gravy train halts....well by then if they keep thowing off the divvis, we can all buy our own trains.

zengas; thanks for you helpful insightts

arsenal58: thanks but i can read an RNS; i believe in SEP; i also believe in not being closed in my belief and absorbing differing views, believe that for the most part people are generous with their thoughts/experiences and knowledge. Your sarcasm doesn't dent that belief .

that's a no then fosselful?

LTHcine; thank feek i'm a EVR's shareholder. amd you are not my surgeon!

LTHcine; nothing like a good quote...

Are you buying quality merchandise? Do you consider it marked down?

bobbybingo; the deadline for cash isn't March 15th, its from March 15th, based on EVR selling down it's holding (EVR shareholders holding) in to the public market for RASP shares, a practice that EVR stated could go through to October. Pre invasion it was looking good, as RASP was near year highs and its cash generation nature was profit, read divvy producing, so EVR would be seling into a buying market. Now, if nothing changes, EVR are selling into a 25% reduced share valuation, and a 40% reduced currency devaluation, i.e. a poor market. Yes it will be interseting to see how this plays out; my view is EVR aren't a tin pot co, despite their current valuation, and will have followed process, and RASP has gone; the lack of RNS's is, in my mind a professionalism to carry on doing what we do, rather than be reactionary to market concerns. Business as usual if you like. I wish RASP remained within EVR, but bar an RNS i do believe it's done, gone. Yes, who knows how this will play out. Personally, i've never sold a share in EVR, only bought; notionally lost £5 grand on years gone by drops, but reaped the rewards, as they gained £10lk. But i didn't lose or gain that in a day - You can not get away from the fundamentals, the profits, and even if you follow an unpopular pariah share, at some point those profits will profit over politics. When a company supplies a product in demand, someone will pay for it.

I'm not a trader, i'm an investor, predominately in value or yield, or both. For the long term. I always follow the fundamentals, never the theory. You can trade the day, the theory, but personally, for me, this will always find it's value, and that's well above today's SP, for the patient.

fossilfuel; will you be joining the 'rebound' you suggest, having made the call of the year selling out in February? Are you to us the 'Oracle of Omaha' Are you our 'Fossil Philantropist'?