Member Info for damofarl

had a hard day at work, so coming back to see all these posts, it's like Gerry Springer for investors. Not sure whether it's education, illumination, ridicule or satirical.

But i'm engrossed. Keep it up! And GKP, keep the divvis up. Lovely jubbly.

marybe190; spot on your post.

I can't fathom why we haven't seemed to track other housebuilders, seemed to languish out of sync.

I actually think TW were ahead of the game, and made provisions before any political machinations, took a first mover status on accepting some remedy was needed, and were forefront in acknowledging their part, their obligations to remedy.

That gives me great confidence, that going forward, the management are delivering, and, at some point the 'market' will recognise that, and correct our 'ugly duckling' status. I think it will be slow yet sure.

I think the impact of tailing off of Govt support schemes to buy is overstated. Yes they have provided a fillip, but that fillip has just disguised the dynamics of the market. There are still not enough homes being built for the need. And that need will always find a market for TW to fill.

drcena; my view on this is yes, their will be dividends forthcoming; because of the rail franchises all being mgmt contracts whereby the Govt has absorbed all the risks (on passenger revenues), and FGP is paid a fixed fee regardless, with possibility for additionmal payments for meeting Key Performance Indicators (KPI's), which they are getting to some degree, this Company is effectively an arm of Govt, effectively an infrastructure company; profits won't zoom (becauase the govt will get that upside), but it will get predictable fees (profits) with a possible KPI upside. So i don't think the SP will zoom, but predicatble earnings will dictate a predictable divy. There may be a little divy boost from the sale of Greyhound properties, and as part of that govt rail mgmt contract, as highlighted in various RNS's, it does realise previously ringfenced 'bonds' held for each of the rail franchises back to the group, and potentially shareholders. Taken in the newest rail franchise, the west coast mainline, they have spent an absolute minimum on it, minimum maintenance, freezed pay which should (disregarding the govt mgmt contract) bode well for profits.

Against that, the level of bureaucracy, the sheer volume of levels of mgmt, eat into costs (profits), and dynamism, but if you want a static SP and consistent but not blistering divvy i think going forward this will those infrastruture style characteristics.

aceofclubs: I wonder why DEC's SP doesn't seem to track it's product rise up, but i don't see that unique to DEC; i hold a number of gas/oilers/resouces and can't fathom why none of them seem to correlate closely to fluctuations. I do think DEC's modus operandi is a little different though, and whilst i'm not totally convinced on the hedging they do, albeit i don't really see it as hedging (if it was, agreed, surely they would do better from it), i see it more as fixing a price at a given time, which isn't the same thing. Hedged correctly they could limit the downside and capture the upside, what they seem to do is fix a price which is higher than cost, which whilst limiting the upside, does eradicate boom/bust - provide certainty. Whilst i do think we lose upside, that loss is replaced by certainty and i for one value that. A certainty of margin which delivers the substantial sustainable dividend; the conservative price fixing (margin managing) policy, whilst throwing off substantially all profit is why the SP will NEVER shoot for the stars - but who cares if the SP is static FOREVER it it pays 10% forever? Not me.

With regard to..." Does it require a constantly rising gas price to keep these declining wells profitable to operate?" i don't think so, just that managed margin. Just because the wells are declining doesn't mean they aren't producing, wont continue to do so for a while. The originators of the wells have taken the low lying fruit, the maximum gush, and moved on to more low lying fruit, chasing higher margin, which isn't the same as saying their is minimal life left; DEC's niche is it is happy to take lower margin but still profitable wells of their hands, and frankly, for 20 years i don't see that circle changing. The fact that by necessity they have to walk fast (buy up new old wells) to replace those previously bought's continually declining ouput also explains the static SP trajectory.

thronegames (Ace); yes i think that ESG a major factor in the dampening down of the SP; I am very green orientated, but pragmatic, and ive taken a view that it will take 20+ years of dirty oil/gas to transition to green energy; in the last 3 years the rise in ESG aligned/promoted investment by major institutions that underline most of our company pensions has been disproportional and irrational in that their positive PR/marketing seems to have dictated/blinded their investment from fundamentals to fads. In that smokescreen of PR/societal responsibility, they have abdicated the reality of the need to society of the DEC's of this world in that transition. I think the lack of any substantial holdings here by UK household names proves your point.

I think the mgmt's response to the 'leaking wells' expose was a masterclass in corporate awareness; questioning some of the numbers, but didn't question the point - addressed it. Turned it into an opportunity. For me, acknowledged what the institutions and society doesn't by making dirty greener.

investinvalue; I am a very green orientated person, and a big fan of and desirous of our transition to renewable clean energy. I'm also pragmatic. TGA, like many in the 'dirty' fuels area have been pummelled valuation wise by (the correct) political/societal/governmental desire to promote green and demote dirty, and the current sexiness/vogue for ESG investment heavily promoted by institutional investors, with 'our' pension fund millions driving the ESG agenda up and dirty Co's SP down. For me, there is a disconnect/opportunity between the desire (that i believe in) and the reality of delivery. Personally i think with TREMENDOUS progress/desire/legislation, it will be need 20+ years of dirty fuel to engender that transition, reality.

In that disconnect sits companies like TGA, sits the opportunity for pragmatists, value investors to prosper. Disregarding the current coal price fillip, coal will be needed for 20 years, and TGA has 20 years worth, to facilitate countries transition.

I don't see a contradiction in my green ethos and investing in TGA; i see a pragmatism; a reality; a profit.

longtimeinvestor; Yes. Do you?

Happy that the market shot the SP up, happy with the divi, but i didn't see anything in the RNS to excite me.

The increase in cash had very little to do with specific tangible advancement by the Company, and everything to do with the oil price surge, and as such, a blind man in a coal mine could see the 'progress/success' that this RNS celebrates.

Production is basically static, and increased production is the proverbial jam tomorrow, and just as i've been agog at the invisibility of GKP, it's underappreciation in the 3 years i've held, i'm agog at today's surge. There was nothing new/blockbuster in the RNS to affect such a reappraisal.

Dividend lovely. I don't believe the throwing off of cash as divis is a bargaining chip/leverage to new agreements with the KRG at all - i do believe it shows alignment/understanding of shareholders. That said, if I was a Govt body awarding a new contract, deciding cost/percentage commitments, i would beat the margin down more on a Company sitting on $500 million cash than i would one with $100 million cash, so inadvertently think it helps, but doesn't drive/leverage the process.

I am a great and continual fan, of the throwing off of divis; in the absence of a better use for the cash (diversification outwith KRG of which i would be a fan, etc), their presence shows a focus to reward/acknowledge the owners (shareholders), rather than 'empire' buiding. In view of the field life, i find it quite comforting that they are carrying on regardless, not shooting for the stars, just garnering them slowly but surely; this may not be desirable for the excitable/frustrable 5 bagger brigade, but for me steady and sure, tuck in the draw, will do nicely.

jotom750; interesting thoughts, and i thank you for them. Maybe you are right.

I'm not a fan of ABM (always of EVR). What you allude to, is irrespective of political connections (undoubtedly), business/businessman focused on a coin, can often engender what politicians can't. I hope you are right, he can make a difference. I just can't see why at the most important discussions of our times, why you would have a businessman as part of your top 10 team attending. You would have the policy/decision makers, which implies ABM is such, ergo he is connected to Putin. I don't see how that is positive to EVR in suggestioning they are not a controlled/connected party.

jc123; indeed - i contacted a year ago and received an immediate, warm, bespoke response. Found it extremely refreshing, and reassuring.

davidspellacy/iodan; i note the quote but just logistically i don't think a special adjustment will happen, it will be left to the market/shareholders to consider the value.

Simplest way to make the 'adjustment' is to pay the RASP divi to holders at the previous 'demerger' date.

What the hell is Abromivich doing being present at 'peace talks' ?

At a point that EVR is trying to show that it is not a connected party, that ABM's large shareholding is not of concern, he turns up at a political/government negotiations.. If he is not connected, why is he there? Beggers belief

opulentia; yes a good week.

Yes the war has pushed up oil, but personally, i think it will average around $90 in the next couple of years (i think it's blipping unjustly high at the mo just as i thought it was unjustly dripping low before). The oil price rise has undoubtedly driven the SP up, but as a low cost producer, GKP was undervalued before this war.

What this war inadvertently has done has focused many investors private and institutional on the need for oil ,when previously pretty much all producers were pushed down under the cloud of ESG compliance/trendiness/fad/promotion. Personally I'm very green, desirous of and invested in renewable energy and sustainability. But I'm pragmatic too, hence i invested disproportionally portfolio wise in the last 2 years in oil/gasers, because i believe in order to get to green, it will take 20+ years of dirty oil to green transition, and the withdrawal from profitable new prospects to the ESG mantra, meant a dwindling supply to maintain a constant medium term need, meant the price of oil, and hence producers SPs like GKP, were disproportionately dampened down on desire not economics. I saw an opportunity to profit from this mismatch.

Personally i hope this will focus all Govt's on renewable energy, for the environment which by it's nature will provide security of supply(but they MUST step up on storage facilities/technology to make such viable. Until they get their act together, the likes of GKP will provide a glorious 20 year window.

rangor; correct.

Personally i take a view on an average price of $90 equalling market cap in 3 years. Has the field got 3 years in? Yes. So to me at worst you'll get a free ride here, at best the bonkers SP will become a bonanza.

MRG123; spot on with this post. Absolutely spot on. I've previously posted similar here; steadt and sure, tuck in the draw.

seatanks; my glance at the deal agrees pretty much with yours, and i too would love a knowledgeable oiler number cruncher to inform the thesis.

Gut feeling great deal; some observations...

I previously asked here what the impact of the drop off trajectory of production was, (it seems to be dropping notably), to no avail, which worries me as a higher cost per bbl of extraction would obviously affect those numbers albeit from a bounty to a harvest!

Pluses are, the untapped potential within the acreage, the more secure (terminal) route to market (and hence market price exposure), and the possibility of gas. I also feel that the 'acquiring' of long standing EXXonMobil staff is an undervalued asset - indeed i feel they may be the key to monetising untapped potential, and bring additional expertise to the pre existing SEPL assets.

I believe its a done deal. At worst it's a good deal. The company call it transformational. At best it could be the deal of the century for SEPL investors.

itsalottery; i think the average Russian working at an IMB factory is supportive of his family as there number one priority. Support of Putin will be low down their scale of priorities. Irrespective of the minimal impact of Russian/Ukrainian operations to IMB as a whole, i personally am proud that IMB are paying/supporting their workers, providing stability in uncertain times. I think, as investors in a company whose products we know (legally) kills people it is somewhat hypocritical to be indifferent to that whilst championing IMB to 'educate' it's workforce on the killing in Ukraine. There is no justification for taking a high moral ground on IMB whilst selectively ignoring the destructive nature of our product which produces the yield most are here for.

The average Russian worker didn't ask for this - why should they suffer whilst retired Reg from Richmond luxuriates on the divvy pontificating judgement?

highlander1970; "You need help"

For someone who only ever moans that their oil investments are undervalued, corrupted by mgmt largesse/incompetency, i take that as a compliment. Maybe you could recommend who you use to make you so positive.

The serious business of investing in our futures/lifestyles is not detached from normality, which includes amongst other things, warmth, humour and levity.

Your comment is detached from such, just as your comments on the oil stocks you hold seem detached from positivity. I look forward to a post of either levity or learning - but do hurry up as i've not got that many years.

straycat; it was Washington DC, and i was a very young man. It was quite progressive for the time, but i declined, mainly because being gay, i didn't think it was that progressive to be a gay sway day.

Bricking it - what a story; god we need some light heartedness on here, and you provided it. People can be a bit serious on here, and that made me chuckle.

Yes i think the results are going to be very progressive, yes i think there will be a progressive divvy, but i do think, despite not being a fan, there will be a buyback - i just think when potentially you are trying to negotiate agreements, a buyback is less of a red rag to a bull than a special divvy. Worst way, it's going to be great, and something even the prudes can swing to.

londonmarkets; some good views there.

Whilst i agree that the Klarma ilk are going to come under scrutiny suggesting restrictions on them, i don't neccessarily agree this will reduce sales notably. f i for one, despite being able to pay in a oner, i have used these services, just because i'd rather have the money longer if i can (in much the same way people with good credit churn 18mth interest free credit cards whilst investing in yielding investment ISAs). Not everyone that uses Klarna needs to, they are just using it, being my point. If we are referring to people needing credit because budget wise they can't afford outright, if they desire the product they will buy it. Historically they might have (through no credit history/low income) used a very high charge credit card (which also charge like Klarna fees to merchant), so arguably with more stringent regulation it would still be cheaper.

With regard to product quality/ profile of SDRY, i work in a customer facing industry, which because of its nature means i meet a comprehensive/diverse demographic on a daily basis; i see every strata wearing SDRY, young, old, low income, wealthy, Chinese, Arabs - namely everyone. And frankly they all look good in the product. Because every time i see the product it looks quality; it may not be cheap, but it doesn't look cheap, and that will always be aspirational/desirable/purchasable. My son has SDRY product and i just think the quality is amazing.

As belts tighten, klarna style credit restricted, i don't really see a problem for SDRY. Their will be a flight to cheap and will just do, or a flight to quality; to me SDRY sits in a good spot of affordable quality.

Personally i find it quite interesting that the fall in this company a couple of years ago was attributed (amongst other things) to not being fashionable, to their product being frequently worn by older people, having lost it's relevance, it's edge, it's trendiness because of those older buyers. I totally disagree with this. I do think the proliferating use of the brand's esteem into non core, non clothing items was a major factor.

We have to look at age demographic changes here; the increasing life expectancy, and for many the increasing affluence among many previously considered to have little disposable income. In my opinion, the desire of say 30-50's to look stylish has risen exponentially in the last 2 decades, and in fact this market, considered the downfall of the company, is actually potentially a great market, niche, of customers with disposable income. What are your other options clothing wise if you don't want to look dowdy? M&S? Next? Not everyone can afford Ralph Lauren.

Yes it needs skillful execution to be trendy to both an 18something and relevant to a 40 something, but i believe it can be done and should be done. That 'older' market is so unserved by a quality stylish product such as that SDRY offers. It should be embraced.

****eye; - "It does follow it going up but this is it being traded back down. It's a much talked about share with swing traders on Twitter. Maybe start there."

I've lived a sheltered life - albeit i declare i did once get invited to a swingers party in Washington - and i'm intrigued by this . How does it work? Do you like through your share in a bowl because you don't really like it, and hope you like better what you pick out? What share would you through in the bowl? what share would you like to find that is better than GKP?

And is it about full clothes or full disclosure?