Member Info for damofarl

seatanks830: agree the numbers look good; i invested based on $70-$80 oil, thinking there was deep missed value; $100 oil and Mobil have just sent it's attraction into the stratosphere.

Some astute observations you make on free float/FTSE inclusion particularly with regard to local and pension fund holdings, and considering your numbers, i would say the true free float must be very close to 25%, but presumably below else surely the current mkt cap would warrant inclusion already?

I 100% agree that inclusion in the FTSE250 would necessitate tracker buying and SP appreciation BECAUSE of being tightly held, but also because that very process will raise awareness and necessitate institutional research of SEP.

I also feel that when the Mobil deal is consummated, because of the gas, it will attract institutions that currently screen it out on ESG grounds; some of these investors seem happy to invest in gas as 'green' (?!) but not oil as being 'dirty' and indeed seem to promote investing in the former as proactively engaging and engendering change, which despite personally finding a bit spurious, feel will also build demand against an infinite supply.

In summary, i do feel there is barely 1 or 2% impacting the free float eligibility requirement and wonder what SEP's considerations/stance is on 'managing' this to inclusion.

minusbat; thanks for your post about emailing for investors day; yes nice that they responded, albeit having space for instituional/family trusts only rather tells you their focus investor wise - namely that they aren't remotely interested in individual investors.

SD235 - never good to see a NAV drop but yes the Ukraine situation does seem to have impacted valuations generally, and the sales of the wine business (mostly into Russia) specifically. That said revenues are up approx 20% which is always a positive, and the best part of half of the NAV drop can be attributed just to BGEO's SP drop. If you believe BGEO is undervalued/will rise, as i do, then a big chunk of that loss will be reversed.

They aren't blistering, but to me i'm happy with them. Very much business as normal. The 20% water holding will provide some upside, either realised or held like BGEO investment trust holding style. I can see the healthcare going the same way as water in due course. Much here for the patient is my view.

agd50; obviously a positive link that you shared for the future/potential, but reality is it really has no immediate or short term impact; WEN aren't party to those discussions, and all being well it's a 3 -7 year time frame to realisation, so nothing that's going to change our day to day here, move the SP....

seatanks; the large closely held stock has long driven SP sentiment on this; the absence of traditional UK institutional investors (ESG grounds?) has left much of the little true float to private investors (PI's); none of the investors you mention have any interest in short term movements, hence (in my opinion never sell), so gyrations, and they have been considerable in the 3 years i've held this, must be due to PI's misunderstanding/being frustrated with SEP's progress/potential and seeking better/quicker profit elsewhere. They are wrong, as the potential, the profit will out for the patient here.

To me, for the reasons you suggest, when this moves it will MOVE, because a lot of people will be chasing a finite supply of stock.

When i first invested, i did so on the following basis; a low cost producing asset, a company with good local/governmental relationships, a belief that ESG considerations devalued the SP, and the necessity (potential) of it's product in such a transition and a subsequent rerate. I did so without considering the dramatic increase in oil price. And i did all that by reading company RNS's/reports, reading (energy/oil) demand/supply reports, making a call that the ESG drive, and it's impact on new 'dirty' oil production was reducing the supply necessary until the ESG desired energy (wind/solar etc) meet the day to day demand, and at some point people (investors) would wake up to such. Waking up to the 'gap' in that transition, that SEP and it's ilk would fill.

Anyone that does their research, looks at the numbers, will see what i saw; a geyser waiting to gush. In truth, if you look at this today, do the research, do the sums, it's still a barking bargain (even without the acquisition).

theosus...... ONLY a 30% drop....suggesting small/insignificant.

A 30% drop should be substantial in anyone's mind....

andyoj2; spot on that comment.Spot on.

oh contraire! Far from delusional, just say what i see.

As with regard to BB's i dont take too seriously at all; sadly they merely reflect the epedemic of individualism that is infecting our society.

I find your point regarding LTH's as pertinent, and rare for it's empathy...there are many here still treading water.

Hi; just want to say for the most part value your contributions; questioning/supportive/interesting/considered. Their lack of vitriol is refreshing here.

hello kentio; yes indeed; and the narrative from each of those you mention, is positive, garnering the opportunities, rather than be impacted by such. As you mention, the impairments is key - no good earning a margin on 10 and losing your shirt on 1, but that doesn't seem to have happened; they all report impairments at or below expected levels.

flyinghorse1; i don't think PUTUP or i have ever talked this down.

What he has done, and i for one value and agree with, is his talking up , his injecting of understanding/reality into where the SP will go, what 'profit' month on month going forward may look like.

Too many here are giddy and lazy on current KRG income receipts and magnifying that into profit (SP appreciation/divvy throw off) whilst selective at looking at other figures, like why that income is being received, and what it constitutes, and what (the boring contractual agreements) mean going forward.

People can ramp outrageous figures for profits/SP appreciation/divvy throw off and that's fair comment - when someone has said, as PUTUP has, to paraphrase him "yes the future is bright but its not neon", he's a downer on the potential.

I think that does him, and everyone on this board that agrees with your comment, a injustice. If your supporting a (major) SP increase your sound, if your suggesting a steady as she goes incremental increase, you're craz,y is notfair comment, it is irrational.

In the absence of increased production, new production, sustained oil highs, i believe PUTUP's posts have consistently been fixed in reality of understanding, the ability for GKP to appreciate, albeit not at the rate some would like. He/she, has consistently outlined the value and potential here.

Someone highlighting what that they believe to be a warm fire that will burn long, and not the firework others evangelise, isn't someone having a downer. That is someone in the reality not someone in the mirage of instant utopia.

gavsternbc; yes it is refreshing to see a board used for its intention; there's some intereting/valuable contributions here.

With regard to the question of will the purchase happen, yes. As i posted before, i think the key is in the wording of the acquisition RNS, namely that the ultimate owner had changed but not ownership of the assets/rights/obligations, which remain held by the same company; hence technically, and from a legal point of view, no change of ownership, hence first rights not applicable. Seplat's affirmation that the company (assets) will be run as a stand alone company reaffirms their awareness of the issue, and, in my opinion, astute sidestepping of it's potential first rights derailing; add to this the fact that timing wise, the state body was aware of the auction for several months, and chose not to engage/bid/invoke rights throughout that period.

I believe that they chose not to do so, because of poor understanding/lack of funds possibly, but most because actually they are a major beneficiary through it's direct partnership interest and fees, in it's continued success whilst promoting a unified national oil champion (Seplat), which despite its London listing, is very much focused on spending Nigerian earned dollars, on Nigerian staff. To me the noise is politicking/newspaper talk. If first rights were an issue, Seplat would have to have RNS'd as a material change/impact, the lack of such by either Seplat/Mobil suggests all in order.

The timing of this acquisition is so so fortuitous. As had been said, the rise in oil price, has made this the bargain of the century for SEP, ergo shareholders. I only see it being consummated, as it is actually in the govt's interest as much as it is SEP's/ours.

The biggest bonus of this deal for me, beyond the oil/gas/terminal route to markets assets, is the assimilation of experienced world class oil major trained staff, and the leveraging of their experience into delivering efficiencies/oppurtunities for SEP going forward.

And worst case? the acquisition is cancelled, and the current high oil price against low cost of production leaves you with a company throwing of cash.

Interesting to see the 5% holding declaration from Waverton, definitely a vote of confidence.

Quarterly dividend announcement due shortly; be interesting to see if it's the same as last year, or is increased to the level of the last 3. if it is levelled up, that will display a vote of confidence.

Note also the 25% rebate of mgmt fees used to purchase shares (done whenever SP below NAV), all of which bodes well. No fireworks, just business as usual.

tshaw2; spot on

ha ha, says the navel gazer extraordinaire.

PUTUP; when do you think the CRP will run out (or substantially so)?

The part that caught my eye was the 36-42 month timescale from FDP approval at a cost of $800 to $925 million.
Surely if we reduced/reined in divvys we could build a war chest through this timescale to cover costs as incurred without recourse to bonds/financing......

https://wp-gulfkeystone-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2022/04/Pareto-EP-Independents-Conference-26-Apr-22-FINAL.pdf

what is the importance/impact of this? Could someone explain in simple terms what it means...

"The payment for January 2022 sales reflects adjustments proposed by the KRG to pipeline tariff charges, which are now linked in part to Dated Brent. The total payment also includes a one-time gross adjustment of $1.0 million ($0.8 million net to GKP) related to a backdated pipeline tariff increase for 2021."

hshs; ramp of the day that.

Unless the near static production increases rapidly and tremendously, and whilst the current divvy 'policy' is in place GKP will merely caretake this to £3 this time next year, which frankly i'd be happy whilst taking care of the divvys...

31p