Member Info for damofarl

Some observations...

Great to see the divvy at 2.5c which is line with the last 3Q's but up from the year ago 2,25c which shows confidence. And whilst the NAV has dropped slightly in the last year, the dividend is not being paid out of capital and is still being paid from income/earnings. I believe the NAV reduction reflects the current market concern with recession/inflation rather than a reflection on FAIR's ability.

Whilst the recent annual report, to me showed, business as usual, and great management/competency of current concerns, i do wonder why the dividend has been effectively delayed by a month? is this to massage figures because income is faltering, or merely a reflection on the timings of incomes received?

I am very positive on FAIR, but irrespective of the amount, the dividend dates have always been pretty set, and i am maybe overthinking my concern that they have stretched the payment time out.

Appreciate any views on this.

I'm no tax expert but done a bit of digging today, and have to say i'm a little confused on why the taxation on this dividend is a problem - for this year.

The interim was cancelled to avoid taxation, stating at that time that it was interim as opposed to final divvys that would be subject to tax, hence todays suggestion of exploring alternatives to return profits (buybacks) to avoid such taxation.

A cursory google brings up a number of reports on the revised tax regime on overseas earned income, which highlight amongst other things, an alignment with Singapore on overseas income tax treatment and alignment with EU requirements for tax equality. These same reports, from amongst others the likes of KPMG state that there is a transition moratorium until 2026, namely that there is no tax on overseas income until then.

Not sure what this issue is NOW, and that timeframe gives plenty of opportunity to realign/redomicile etc....

Can any legal eagle tax fax contributors explain where my observations are wrong?

I am NO fan of buybacks - i struggle to think of one that worked - but in this instance if it puts the tax reduction into abeyance whilst a tax free solution is found, i think this could be the exception to the rule, as the boring but predictable, infrastructure like fundamentals of this business will owt, in time, for the patient. Even with any tax deduction, it's kerching.

haggismchaggis1; i've lived in Croydon for 50 years, and surveyed every square foot of it......as such i'm an expert on Croydon and there's billions of bbls of oil there and one day we will find them....

sanchez599; i note your point on algorithms/bots, and because of the small free float they can force disproportionate gyrations.

But my view is, they are frankly irrelevant if you have done your research here; the algos can fluctuate all they like, but the fundamentals here are such, that at some point SEPL will find it's true value/appreciate. Unless your trading, it's an irrelevance over the medium to long term for investors. Prospects/appreciation/value will out here for the patient.

If Mobil doesn't happen, if SEPL just churn the asset to dry, we will still all be enriched.

5p divvy proposed, subject to adjustment for discussions on tax reduction. Happy days here. Hope they resolve it rather than a buyback.

Boring but enriching. Carry on.....

tygra; great post, which i agree with in it's entirety.

scrwal: i had already noticed the delay which is highly unusual (and as such slightly worrying for me) so contacted investor relations. Received this response yesterday:

"We have confirmed with the administrator that a notification will be made shortly" - that was the entirety of the message.

Thanks all for contributions/information/clarifications on the options.

If i'm reading this right we are paying £11 million to give us a floor price (itself well above cost of production), whilst having no cap on the upside.

If that's the case that's not money spent/wasted, that's profitable surety. Bravo.

thronegames; spot on that.

The sensible also consider which stocks they allocate to an ISA or to a SIPP; stocks with no withholding tax in an ISA (say M&G), US dividend paying stocks (say DEC) in a SIPP for instance.

bvcxz70; i doubt it for 2 reasons.

1) about 70% of rail franchises, including most of FGP's are currently under govt contracts, whereby the revenue/cost risk is the govt's, so no cost to FGP (they may see a reduction in KPI related performance fees).

2) the offer for FGP has put a value on FGP, in excess of it's current market value, an offer that institutional shareholders have stated undervalues FGP

This will stagnate/drift higher in the next 6 months....

I think patience is the only catalyst needed here; the fundamentals, without Mobil are fantastic, and at some point investors will be in a position where they can not ignore/wait on the sides if they want to enjoy a share of the SEPL cake. As discussed before, there is little of that cake available, so if you want a bite, you are going to have to pay for it.

I think if you are investing (as opposed to trading), the trajectory here is exceptional and sustainable for a long time. When investors wake up this will shoot up, maybe not exponentially SP wise, but certainly yield wise. If your patient with a medium to long term investment here, the fundamentals will out.

vanvan; thank you for that presentation link.

Every BSE shareholder should watch it

I think Melrose are doing great, and doing a great job focusing in, and focusing on what that are selling off. I've held since the GKN takeover, and can't fault them; yes their are wild random gyrations, to me irrationally so.

I think they are delivering day to day in the business - and for the patient i strongly believe they will deliver for shareholders.

templeoddoom:

....""People Who Constantly Point Out Grammar Mistakes Are Pretty Much Jerks, Scientists Find.....this paper, which was published in PLOS One in 2016....."

Author; templeofdoom

..."research by the Mawdsley Hospital showed that people that reposted random, esoteric, obscure, anonymous research on non associated social media sites were lacking in personality, sense of humour, balance...."

Authors: Emil Kraepelin & Aubrey Lewis

Better to reveal some of one's personality than to post naked of any.

Let's focus on, critique SEPL, not individuals.

PJT12; irrespective of Schroders, this deal won't happen for 2 reasons.

1) FGP has been bankrolled (as with other uk transport) through covid, and they will be controlling them all back to health to recoup that support/investment/subsidy.

2) Uk govt won't allow sale to a non UK entity in order to demonstrate the 'Brexit benefit'.

That said, FGP is run like an arm of govt, so private equity could really make a fortune from it - someone like 3i, could get the UK company govt tick and it would fly.

nowt wrong with a MORNICator; so ironic, to post sardonic suggesting MORNIC. How catatonic!

putup; just read your post and started chuckling, as i was thinking, we are sort of disagreeing on the same thing!

Seriously a really good thought provoking post - thank you for that.

I'll get back to you with what my disagreements on our agreements are once i've nit picked them out!!!

Viva la GKP!

straycat; thanks your post; you main point i was aware of; i just believe in considering all views, differing or disparate to mine - i don't agree with personalising agendas and people being derogatory because they disagree. I disagree with much of the contribution here , that doesn't mean it is invaluable to me. Much of such has been very constructive to me and i'm grateful for that. I'm very aware of the totality of the contributors here, and very mindful that i am in a sweet spot, due to investing 2ish years ago but many aren't, many lost much, and many are only drawing towards break even. Mindful that in part, my divvy throw offs are at the expense of someone who bought 10 years ago.

That said, i see but don't accept the bitterness of those in that situation. We aren't children; you either invested but didn't do your research/ you took a punt and it went wrong, or you did either without considering it's impact/diversity/risk. Either way, such bitterness is ugly. and i have no time for - in recent times i lost investments in Metro, Thomas Cook and very recently Ince, because i either took a punt/failed to research enough but i did so within a wider portfolio. I got them wrong but i never besmirched any of those boards contributors that may have got it right. I accepted MY errors.

Just as i accept, and appreciate the often differing/disparate/detailed contributions here, i have no stock for those denigrating those that contribute such with good intent. I will follow your advice on this one!

tom111; aye an easy target to cover up Government's lack of strategic planning; instead of addressing structural issues for too long playing to the (green/ESG) crowd. I am VERY green orientated and WANT green energy production but the lack of 'storage' to maximise/utilise it's variance told pragmatic me that until such there was a gulf in energy need that needed filling - 'The transition 20 years' i call it. It's what brought me to SEPL and it's ilk a couple of years ago, to the point now that i am overly concentrated in IOG entities. I was expecting a revaluation/appreciation over 5 years; the Ukraine situation has considerably accelerated/shortened the timeframe for such, but only because it focused minds sooner on the inevitable; that high reliance on singular sources and the ESG clouded institutional investment community /governmental vote pandying induced reduction in new exploration would cause a shortage to bridge the green energy provision gap.

All here should be aware of the risks of governments like Nigeria to stocks such as this, and whilst agreeing with you regarding the zero probability of a Nigerian energy tax, i find it ironic both that my investments in previously accepted dubious jurisdictions are now considered more stable (because of Ukraine), and that previously ESG blackmarked stocks are now being 'reassessed' under the justification a dubious government/dirty oil is more responsible than cleaner gas and dead bodies.

With or without Mobil, with patience, we will reap our own windfall.

****eye; i'm always wary of selectiveness; to suggest someone is spamming for a 25% contribution on a day, not only shows a lack of understanding of statistics, but a blind focus to guide invalid stance; if one was less elective in making one point, say took three days, that spamming reduces to 10% - hardly spamming. Anyone whose contributions are singularly posted on one BB alone make me wary. Is this someone with a broad considered view or a selective view. Is this someone who is so singularly convicted by a stock (GKP) that it is there only investment , or someone who is putting the house roulette style on zero? Either way i'm wary that such contribution is balanced.

PUTUP; not sure why you feel using equity is dearer than debt? As for considering costs, and costs of FDP, i have. The current income supports all that (on the basis i've suggested), and whilst you highlight that to dismiss my stance, you seemingly disregard, that whilst front loaded, such costs aren't day 1 and day 1 is nowhere near tomorrow and such current income would cover those costs. I'm equally wary of such selective dissecting of differing views.

I'd much rather we were all united in selecting a winner. GKP.