Member Info for damofarl

tartine; very valid post/points you make; and i agree. Personally, i think the risk/reward ratio is worth investment. But until the first 5 points you make are resolved (positively), anyone invested here has to accept this is a roller coaster, and be prepared to buckle up

alph; the lack of energy, was regarding mgmt - not resource energy.

And yes, they are focusing on Tanzania, their stated decision, but i've never been a fan of a one trick/one country pony. Yes i believe in focusing on what you know, and despite appearing to have excellent relations with the Tanzanian govt, that singular focus still holds them hostage to such continuing. Bar the corporate self indulgence, which very concerns me, i am a fan on the positive inclusive relations they seem to have in the country/locale

mick2020; yes, i'm with ya. Disgrace.

spot on LondonCentric, spot on.

Trade it if you want, and there are oppurtunities, but if you are like me, tuck in the draw, go away, and come back and think wow, on both an income and SP appreciation basis. Forget the noise, follow the fundamentals.

I have been out of INCE for a few months now, and just looked in to see if i made the right call on crystalissing my losses.

Just want to say, thanks for your excellent posts; full of insight free from blarney. To may boards are full of baloney/agenda, so refreshing to see someone's posts that really inform decisions. I'm out, and i don't see me being back, but i think you do a great service to those LTH's here. Salute.

herminator; i think, your thinking behind your questions is spot on.

I too see that, as seatank has so excellently suggested, that bar the local politics, and maybe palms not being greased in the historical way, that the NNPC are actually supportive. SEPLAT do appear to have excellent relations, and as i pointed out before, the boss of the boss of NNPC said, AFTER the 'referral/refusal' of Mobil deal, that he was happy at Seplat's stewardship and acquisition of Mobil assets into a Nigerian champion. Once the people have been greased Nigerian style, and i do feel with some adjustments, Mobil will happen.

If it doesn't, and the SP doesn't include even the possibility of it happening, the fundamentals (again thanks top seatank for frequently outlining such) are still top draw.

Note this from, oilprice.com, which only shows the trajectory and potential here:

"The lowering of crude oil surplus projections comes as the OPEC+ group continues to produce under its quota. OPEC+ agreed to increase its production in May by 432,000 bpd. The group was unable to reach this target, undershooting it by 2.7 million bpd. For June, the OPEC+ group again agreed to lift its production by another 432,000 bpd, but the general consensus in the industry is that they will be unable to meet that quota too.

For July and August, the OPEC+ group got even more ambitious, raising their output targets by an even greater extent, essentially rolling the September increase that they had planned into July and August.

But OPEC+’s continued underproduction will shrink any anticipated market surplus, if indeed OPEC+ is using these production figures in their estimates.

One of the biggest OPEC laggards in the production cut deal all along has been Nigeria, which actually had its production decrease in May instead of increase per the quota. The result was a half a million barrel a day shortfall in its actual production vs. its quota. But Nigeria’s oil minister last week said that it would be able to meet its OPEC production quota by the end of August."

roofer61; i think your comment is spot on. if your investing, as against trading, this will appreciate into it's fundamentals.

For the patient, it's Yazoo

jc1213; as has been suggested, as a holder of both, i think GENL is massively undervalued, and GKP is not overpriced, and also undervalued.

I invested in both, fully aware of the KRG/Iraqi risk, just thinking, when i invested, at pre elevated oil prices, that their low cost of production, and their reserve sizes meant about 2 years of receipts would cover their mkt caps, ergo my investment price. My rationale was a combination of the ESG blinded moratorium on investment in new fields, would mean a rerating of producing assets to fill the void of understanding of need for dirty oil to enable the green transition, and that any terminally detrimental 'rulings' would take time, and every month, i would be edging closer to a legally shuttered business have cash at hand equal to the value of mkt cap/my investment cost, and that anything beyond 2 years continuance would be a free (but not without risk) ride. I've made a few duff investments, who hasn't, but to date, i've got this one right.

To me, the recent RNS's have been quite specific, on the accretive nature of current elevated oil price, and in their continuance, the returning of such excess capital, and i do expect a special divvy announcement, sooner rather than later.

just revisiting this.......the NAV has dropped about 7% from January to latest evaluation, June.

Frrankly, to be expected, and i actually think that is pretty good mgmt of their markets, considering the wider mkts, and certainly compares positively well against wider more mainstream stocks. It is still at considerable discount to NAV which to me gives breathing space to further retrenchment/underlying loan default, although i don't see it doing so, of note.

From memory (being lazy), the divvy is is set at 10% of NAV so a lowering of next divvy to reflect such, but frankly, still in excess of 10% (my benchmark requirement for such esoteric/specialist stocks), so not concerned. Business as usual methinks, and frankly , feel performing consistent and reliable, contrary to what the high risk inherently associated in such a stock would suggest.

Conservatively i'd say it's $150 million

I think at $40 million a month till end of year, after capital costs and bond repayment, thats $90 million to distribute, without touching the cash at hand.

The political risk is priced in, but the SP is making a mockery of the fundamentals - at unchanged production/OP 12 months cashflow and cash at hand equal current mkt cap. Thats a misprice if ever i saw one.....

Start to see what some here have been saying about the CEO; possibly the least inspiring interview ive seen in a long time; very average capabilities/ambitions. Other than the lack of energy, noted zero ambition to grow outside of Tanzania.

Generally like the structure of the Ruvuma deal, but i do wish there was more drive and ambition beyond executive pay perpetuation.

whitehat; agree with your excellent post - poor mgmt, poor diversity.

At $110 a bbl the $100 million override loss would effectively be replaced/equalised. Of course this presumes that price continuing....personally i feel it will for the next couple of years at least

gavsternbc; well you ask the million dollar question there, how will they fare in rising rates? My personal view on TORO is fine; yes maybe some retrenchment but i don't see any falling off of a cliff; interest rare rises have been well signalled for a year, and materialised significantly in the last 3 months and the upwards trajectory is quite clear. Against generalist stock drops (say FTSE 100), TORO has fared well in the general market drop/nervousness.

With regard to a one off risk assessment Scandiexpat, whilst i get your sentiment, i don't think will happen or really that appropriate - TORO's monthly factsheets pretty much outline that already; the annual report is very detailed on the risk profile of investments; the latest monthly factsheet highlights increased risk/volatility but in a controlled measured - not panicked - way. I read the monthlys religiously and i sit comfortable with their highlighting of constantly rotating into the current market condition/pricing as highlighting their proactiveness in managing the portfolio; that said the annual report did highlight an increased concentration/correlation risk of the portfolio, and also mgmt's desire to exit residential related loans, which in itself reassures me rather than concerns me, exampling to me, their professionalism.

Gut feeling, this company manages the margins, and whatever the new rate/risk, they will recycle such margin into that.

https://www.chenavaritoroincomefund.com/assets/Uploads/09c95f570a/Chenavari-Toro-Income-Fund-Limited-Factsheet-April-2022-EXTERNAL.pdf

With regard

thanks jezzahold ; pretty much summed up my views here!

With regard to....."Eventually funds will have to be retained fo capital reinvestment but their success should enable such funds to be acquired at reasonable rates while continuing to give shareholders a return"......

Personally, having been here 3 years and seen their steady progressive stewardship in that time, i'd prefer a combination of reducing/retaining dividends in association with their ongoing investment for any new capital investment.

And yes, the previous divvy postponement, and the current consideration are obviously dictated by the majority holders interests, but the clear open messaging by STCM also shows they are not oblivious to those like me riding their coat tails.

Thanks your thoughts.

johnlewis; i beg to differ.

The quite specific cash generation stated in the RNS at $90 oil, and the positive impact at oil price above that points against the current market cap suggests otherwise.

"Genel expects free cash flow of over $250 million in 2022, pre dividend payments, at a Brent oil price of $90/bbl
An increase or decrease in Brent of $10/bbl impacts annual cash flow by c.$50 million". You can't argue with those sums, or the update showing cash at hand increased in 3 months from $314 mill to $356 mill, hence my suggesting any special divvy is not priced in. The political environment is, but the production cashflow throw off isn't

hand-some; are you relatively new to investing/trading?

GWR mgmt contract agreed, risk removed, minimum fee income with upside potential guaranteed. Avanti
west coast will be announced shortly further removing risk, increasing guaranteed income/upside.

Points in the FY results that caught my eye - all constituent pension schemes are in surplus (they received a refund/rebate from one of their Scottish schemes) so their may be further realised funds here but irrespective of such, they are now not making additional contributions to these schemes, freeing up cash. The statement that all revenue (loss of) and staff costs are met by govt such that industrial action would not materially affect FGP fiscally shows that such action is not a concern to them. Comments on passenger numbers on trains were at (from memory) around 78% of pre pandemic levels, with leisure travel now higher then pre pandemic and business lower - this i find reassuring in that the previous west coast franchisee holder Virgin maintained that standard class customers were the most profitable - and the newly introduced Premiumclass whereby customers pay £20 odd quid just for a better seat has been a roaring success and frankly a masterclass in charging more for no more. Whilst the Govt is currently benefiting from such, if the francise is 'restored', FGP will be the beneficiary.

That said it won't happen, as this government will run all these franchises out beyond the next election on mgmt contracts in order to control the unions, read break them, akin to Margaret Thatcher's idealogy to break the coal unions strength, and FGP are happy to be one of the mechanisms to break the last strong union, as it will give them long vision on a guarenteed (fee) income stream.

This is also the reason for the takeover offer, and takeover interest in the wider UK transport sector, predominately by infrastructure investors.....they want predictable (govt) assured income/profit in a growing ESG govt mandated arena. Transport companies are the new utilities, and the senior mgmt of FGP are happy with that as such boring risk free staidness protects, and projects well for their renummeration.

This will never double, never pay an 8% yield - but if you want a tuck away and forget, marginally and slowly appreciating SP and constant sustained 5% yield incvestment, that is what FGP is morphing into.

jc-123; agreed.

Not holding my breath on sarta6, but i think an announcement on a special divvy is imminent - and it will be a divvy as they are quite specific on "a return of cash" as opposed to say 'distributions to shareholders' (i.e. buybacks).

The quite clear signalling in the FY results suggests they were already minded/planning such; with the elevated OP, it is only a matter of time - and how much.

kentio; i also have BGLF and TORO neither of which have disappointed but not MPLF - not a reflection on MPLF which i do like just that i have my 'quota' in such stocks already.