Member Info for damofarl

I note a slow but upward SP appreciation on on this which i find curious/interesting. LIV is absolutely minimal on updates, and normally drifts lower in the 9 months post divvy, yet it's rising, contrary to it's normal pattern.

For me, its undervalued, but do wonder if this is just PI's looking at the headline yield buying in, or more fundamental knowledge/belief....

seatank; thoughts on the money as usual. thank you.

I think your and my investment timeline are very similar...i too wonder why at current elevated OP, the SP hasn't grown. Yes we have discussed the shareholding holdings holding this back, but the flip side of that, is it supports it too, gives an underlying stability. None of those interests are interested in a quick buck but a long dollar, and i'm happy to ride that knowing that even without progress, just milking this to dry will elicit a great return on the current SP.

Theres a steady but sure mgmt style here i like. Not complacent but not cavalier. I don't expect any fireworks tomorrow, nor any surprises, frankly just business as usual. And with the pipeline/gas coming down the line, whenever, for me frankly business as usual will be delightful.

gwillerz79; I think if one does their research and sees something undervalued, such as SEPL, timing is almost irrelevant; you may buy at the top and not make a trading margin, but will still receive a decent divvy to compensate error timing/patience.

You only need to go back a year to see there have been a plethora of opportunities to profit from trading here - all those oppurtunies appeared because fundamentally this is undervalued. Unless you are trading by the day, your opportunity will come again.

As for MPNU, in my opinion, that is not priced in here at all. Frankly SEPL's day to day production is barely priced in here at all. I wouldn't worry - if you were trading for a 10% margin, you'll get it, just not in a day, but with patience it will come your way.

I don't see a special dividend, but i do see an increased dividend just based on oil price/receipts, without any new positive news.

davde; spot on your comments; i think this is a yes, at the original offer price, with greater certain cash.

TSSz; no one else is coming in, and 200p is a pipe dream.

tom78; likewise! and another 4% drop today......this was the last quarters figures, the next is due in a month.

The continual dropping is unnerving, but i'm holding fast..even with the nearly halved operating earnings, that annualised for just a year, with cash at hand are greater than mkt cap. I just can't fathom it, and i may get burnt here but i'm going to hold against this disconcerting continual downward trajectory/sentiment.

https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/jackson-announces-first-quarter-2022-results-2022-05-10?mod=mw_quote_news_seemore

****eye; the 6 month chart is......"a pictorial demonstration of why there is no sound long term investment in GKP, or the region and don't let anyone tell you there is."

Well i'm not sure what 6 month chart you are looking at, but the one i'm looking at suggest a SP loss of about 15p in that time, whilst providing 53p's worth of dividends.

I'll take a 'naff' long term investments like this all day everyday. Does your 6 month chart analysis highlight any similar duff investments i might want to consider?

trekmadone; feel your spot on with your comment to Cheap, on both divi and risk/reward ratings....

tom78; i am disproportionately invested here, not believing any rationale for the negativity/plummeting SP, so yes it's a dud for me at the moment too!, and can't believe as you say its near spin off price again.

It plummeted on not meeting analysts last quarter earnings - but the earnings were still astonishing. I can get my head round the figures - i just can't get my head round why the 'market' can't get it's head around the figures! My it's a rollercoaster, but despite now representing over 10% of my portfolio (i rarely go even near 5% per stock) i haven't sold a share as i believe there is deep deep value here - and at current SP, a potentially astonishing yield into the future.

Sorry to hear it's a dud for you currently.......i hope, and believe this will turn into a swan.

re RNS - certainly suggests the 2 already involved parties believe strongly in it's prospects; i can't see them both passing up the pre emptive/first refusal rights so looks like back to square 1. I wonder whether WEN's supposed good relations with Govt could be leveraged to be a (smaller) partner alongside either of these 2?

Nice update to day. Static production but sales nigh on 20% higher. Very much business as usual....

Of course the update we are all waiting on is the divvy announcement.

"but"

youwiththeexcessivelylongdifficultlifedrainigtotypeusername:

"It's been a while since I've looked here, but this has 4 billion all over it. I remember 4 billion before, do any of you?"

I'm not sure whether i've misread your irony here, apologies if i have, but the last time this was pumped as a $4billion company it lost many shareholders 90%. As much as i think from here that such is unlikely to repeat, a 10 fold appreciation is even more unlikely. Was your point irony or an irrational pump?

Without a formalising of the legalities KRG/Iraq wise, this will never warrant either a blockbuster takeout or a $4 billion valuation. Yes it's undervalued, by not by a billion let alone four.

surreyscot; not as strange as the trolls pumping a sale and ludicrous valuations not backed by fundamentals...

Those "trolls" might be more invested in garnering a cellar full of Chateau Mouton Rothschild rather than a quick buck, the quick fizz of a mere bottle of prosecco.

putup; thanks for the detailed numbers.

GKP has always had the KRG/Iraqi contention over it, but i do feel this time it is coming to a head, and i have for a couple of months

Positives for me, even on a revocation are that legals not being the swiftest beast, there could be 6 months production income to come, that a threading of the needle deal as you suggest might not mean that basket case hitting the floor SP wise, and instead a boring/predicatable/long term utility type income stream (which has it's own attractions) being a smaller fixed percentage of a large cake. That transformation could broach and expand beyond the cash value and mkt cap today.

With the risks i very much agree we should be paying out income at every opportunity. And yes we disagree on buybacks as the means to do such.

If you agree this will carry on as is, yes, as it will cement value at current SP, as a business as usual future makes this extremely undervalued.

But if terminated, and the SP hiits the floor buybacks at £2.43 would be cementing losses when there is only £1.55 to return?

From Trainline's trading update today....

".....In the first four months of FY2023, Trainline's net ticket sales are up 16% versus the same period in FY2020 (pre-COVID)."

mick2020; ha ha - i got the irony!

"Mnazi Bay is so good in fact, that it allows them to do nothing at all for many years,…" - that's why i'm here, in spite of the mgmt! Nail. Head. Hit.

scandiexpat; the number of individual trades, and their value is quite normal today; the constant low volume/value of trades has a disproportionate affect (for good/bad). The nature of those few trades magnifies the direction, up or down.

If the trajectory sentiment/economic wise is negative, as is the case currently, i think there is a flight to perceived safe havens, more liquidly traded stocks like Unilever and United Utilities, from on paper risky stocks like this.

Yes, the fundamentals are affecting SP, across this specialist sphere - (these stocks are basically the business equivalent of the bundling/packaging of housing loans that precipitated the banking crisis) - but i think it's more a flight to quality/capital preservation driving it down than an underlying concern. just my tuppence....

mick2020; a little bit critical of mgmgt? Yes you are - but accurately so!!

Invested about 2 years ago on the basis of the field size and seemingly good/stable govt relations, for yield, and yield/SP appreciation into the next 5 years, so in no rush. But you do sum up the pedestrian progress perfectly. Frustrating

I have a long term view here, just think the fundamentals will out. I'm a value/income investor, find/research a stock that meets those criteria, and sit tight, which is my position here for the last 3 years. And my has this stock gyrated in my time of holding.

I'm not a trader, and for those that are those gyrations give opportunity, but timing is the difference between a candle and a knife and timing such is not for me. I feel a few traded on the Mobil acquisition, and are on the wrong side of such timing at the moment. That aside, i have traded up in SEPL, not for a quick buck, but when i've experienced one of its frequent downward gyrations, my research, my belief in the long term, the fundamentals has driven me to add, and retain top sliced profit into my holding - because every time its dropped, that research has just informed me it is even more undervalued on fundamentals.

"Trading" is not my bag, and i'm ambivalent to it, but i wish no ill to those that choose/chase that risk/reward just as i have no sympathy/jealousy to those impacted/benefited by such. But frankly if the 'trader' types amongst us bought a month or 3 ago, hoping for a quick 5/10% in a week, the fundamentals WITHOUT Mobil are such that that day trade will still profit - just take longer.

This is so underappreciated, undervalued, on a non acquisition, non diversity, non progress, just milk the field basis it is unbelievable. Patience will out, profit will out, for patient investors, prosperity is in.

highyield; thanks your post; 50% (including the HL private small investors) from serious investors, shows some institutional support, which bodes well.

mick2020; thanks for the increased holding data. In itself ,i find that quite reassuring/positive, not least because OVMK are focused as a 'value investor' - i note they also have holdings in Premier Foods, and GKP and GENL (the later 2 of which i hold).