Member Info for damofarl

rangor; well dug out that article! oh and i'm with you, KRG shenanigans aside, i can't see why the market opposes are belief in GENL.

i note that since the 5/11 payment RNS, up to 5th March there should have been another 4, but there has only been 2.

I know the KRG like to 'stretch' their payments out, but they do seem to stretch Genel's more than others. Punishment for proceedings?

This board does make me chuckle.....it's a perverse pleasure (i have more than i tell my psychiatrist).

One minute we get immense confidence we're going to earn a billion a year, the next minute the OP rise is going to double this, the next minute why doesn't it corelate oil, the next minute why has it dropped 5%. I'm kinda grateful there's only so many minutes in a day.

Really those gyrations of dreams/worries come down to the reason of your investment; are you punting for a quick profit (gyrations impact you quickly) or are you invested for the long term (fundamentals impact you surely). Either stance your starting point is research. And has been said, that will free you from concern about gyrations. Personally i'm here to the death, mine, not GKP's, and i really don't care what the OP/SP does day to day. Because unless your timeframe is a day, this will always find it's way.

In most (but not all), i just sense frustrated give me today 5 baggers. Investors here follow the long term fundamentals, not the blaggers.

pondlife - do you mean Rosneft?

mick2020; good question that!

I hold a couple of stocks that give daily RNS's on their NAV and i thought the same as you; checked LSE and as you say, thought wow those fees are chunky, but couldn't find anything specific regarding individual RNS issuance cost.

Did come away thinking the fees are a licence to print money and should invest in LSE......

smiler; are you salaming it or not - we need to know in order to give you a full answer....

blackrock; great un emotional post.

Talking of great, yes, possibly the greatest RNS i've ever seen today. Throughout this turbulence, i've been unconcerned (EVR investment wise) because of the fundamentals, reinforced by the business as usual way EVR has RNS'd; no material change ergo no RNS.

opulentia; do you have a big chunk of your portfolio here, or proactively trade it, as you do seem to be getting very giddy about OP rise.

Not a sarcasm, a serious question.

jim800; good post.

i also hold GKP, and i find it interesting that consistently the GENL payment is continually stretched out; i feel that this is GKP having better relations, but it might just be that GENL are administratively crap...

lithboy; I'm glad you've garnered support here, voicing your disquiet at your reception on your EVR board posts; i'm not knocking that you are questioning the Ukraine situation, we all should, as frankly it benefits noone. I hope the following that i posted on EVR, benefits you -

"lilthboy; firstly i don't agree with vitriol against any poster, however niave/inappropriate their post - i prefer education/persuasion.

That said your post invited it; invited it for a number of reasons. Firstly this is an investment board, not a morals board, so you are not talking to the right audience. I'm sure UNICEF, DEC have bulletin boards, where you will receive a warmer response. Secondly your presumption is that just because people want to profit from steel/commodities, that they are 1) ignorant to the impact and 2) indifferent to wider issues, such as the situation in the Ukraine. Thirdly it's very selective. EVR's steel workers, and there are thousands of them, mainly 'working class', who earn a comparatively higher wage than generally available in employment in their locales, don't neccessarily support Putin - i would guess they support their families/communities. Fourthly, it's hypocritical, as you are quite happy to turn a blind eye to the pillaging of poor African's land for mineral extraction , without voicing your concerns on the impact of indigenous communities, the lack of investment in their wellbeing beyond subsistence while the wealth of their land/environment is taken from withunder them.

I don't, and i don't believe the vast majority on this board, feel comfortable with what is going on Ukraine wise. But if you are going to be a champion of morality, question others morality, first pick the appropriate place, and second, don't selectively turn a blind eye to your own."

lilthboy; firstly i don't agree with vitriol against any poster, however niave/inappropriate their post - i prefer education/persuasion.

That said your post invited it; invited it for a number of reasons. Firstly this is an investment board, not a morals board, so you are not talking to the right audience. I'm sure UNICEF, DEC have bulletin boards, where you will receive a warmer response. Secondly your presumption is that just because people want to profit from steel/commodities, that they are 1) ignorant to the impact and 2) indifferent to wider issues, such as the situation in the Ukraine. Thirdly it's very selective. EVR's steel workers, and there are thousands of them, mainly 'working class', who earn a comparatively higher wage than generally available in employment in their locales, don't neccessarily support Putin - i would guess they support their families/communities. Fourthly, it's hypocritical, as you are quite happy to turn a blind eye to the pillaging of poor African's land for mineral extraction , without voicing your concerns on the impact of indigenous communities, the lack of investment in their wellbeing beyond subsistence while the wealth of their land/environment is taken from withunder them.

I don't, and i don't believe the vast majority on this board, feel comfortable with what is going on Ukraine wise. But if you are going to be a champion of morality, question others morality, first pick the appropriate place, and second, don't selectively turn a blind eye to your own.

The drop is general market uncertainty/malaise, and probably a churn into what some consider more certain stocks. Production is near totally used internally, so export ban's etc don't really impact - albeit they could reduce imports which could only help STCM.

I don't see ANY reason to leave here; uncertainty/volatility yes, but the fundamentals haven't changed. Profits for the patient here. (and a cursory glance of 2 year SP pricing will show you this isn't the first time STCM has dropped for no obvious reason).

autonomy1; if you look at the last quarter Evraz link you posted, you are quite right, the vast majority (85%) of steel production is Russian, the reamining US.

If you take pre war market cap of valuation of £4 billion, 15% of that gives me £600 million for the US.

If the turd hit the fan, just those US assets are a considerable stopgap buffer to the current market cap. The US production is specialised (i.e not easily/quickly replicable) hence important to the US, as is it's employment value in it's locales. This is not going to be national interest/war interest requisitioned - equally it is not going to be sanctioned.

Following the fundamentals will out - granted that may not be in a day, maybe a year, or two? If you are speculating, you need to follow the day, the mood. For me if you follow the fundamentals, value, and this is value, will out. Because.

Because every negative i've seen here is a positive......devaluing rouble (lower production costs relative to sales price as not sold in roubles), sanctions (restricting of a major supplier, ergo lower supply/higher price), Abromovich selling out (less chance of a low ball taking private offer). State nationalisation (throwing thousands of Russian workers on the dole will cause unrest/change); sanctioning by us/Russia (we need their steel for HS2/they need all the credibility they can retain).

This WILL pay the dividend, (the money was already in the bank), will adjust post divvy date, Will still find a market for product because the market supply minus EVR would be a deficit, will remain listed because the embarrassment of removal to the UK Government would be too much.

Gyrating times. If you are trading, trade the price; if you are an investor, invest in the value with a long term timeframe and ignore the noise.

As always grateful for the varied viewpoints, but felt a bit of warmth, nay love in the posts today!

risky/straycat; i'm not a fan of shorting, but i think some fair comments here on their gyrational impact. A number of stocks i have gyrate frequently for no obvious reason, certainly not fundamentals, so i presume shorters at play. But for shorts to work, someone has to "sell". Do those that sell on a drop do so because they are day trading, to minimise losses or are they longer term investors panicked, because they haven't fully researched the success/sustainability/prospects? I don't know the answer; i'm not a day trader in style (i have of course), i take a long term (generally value) stance; have never bought a stock without reading a years worth of RNS's so when i see my stock drop 5% in a day, drift 20% lower in a month, in the absence of pertinent company affecting news/policy change, or company released RNS detrimentally affecting my original investment rationale, i never sell. if the fundamentals i researched/believe in haven't changed, nor has my expected outcome. I often buy more as a result. Ultimately shorters profit from panic/naivety (with the rare exception of having identified a bloated accounting trickery inflated Co), offered upby those either taking a punt or failing to research, or both. Hence my being quite happy to ask questions on here, being ridiculed for my poor maths. I knew GKP was going to do me right because of basic research, what i was trying to drill down to was how right i was - and frankly from all the supporting viewpoints ive seen on here, the information ive gleaned from such, i can't quite believe quite how right i was.

With regard to having further room to run, bar material political change, there's plenty; without development progress, there's plenty of years of throwing off $100 million a year left....will probably see me out.

PUTUP; i'm unsure on your assertion that institutional support is needed, but i do think it wouldn't hurt - i don't think the current throwing off of divvys negates such interest, indeed feel for some would be attractive. Their absence i believe (bar the political risk we all aware of) is the current ESG focus of such investors. I personally am very green orientated, want the transition, but i'm pragmatic that to transit you will need dirty stuff like this for 20 years minimum. Personally, i am happy with the throwing off of divvis, and whilst doing so why would any of the current shareholders want to 'cash out'? Yes i get that sometimes institutional investors can direct/add focus albeit i think their value in doing such is widely overstated. I don't think the composition (bar overriding control) of investors will affect the progress.

Weirdly, i do think that post 2022 this would actually attract ESG indifferent institutional investors; not as an oil/commodities play, but almost as a infrastructure/utility play

PUTUP; yes i got that, i just used the 9ish at worst case. I tend to start at the conservative end of the scale rather than the dreamers end. End year for CO runout / PO to start tapering down towards 9ish ; will have to wait for results to get a good steer on how long that will take.

FairAnalyst; your posts are very much the wheat amongst the chaff; don't always agree with them but they are considered not just waffle. They contributre rather than detract. Thanks for that.

massiive ray; post of the month that fella.

Rare groove:

"After that drop on Friday over the course of a few minutes (no apparent reason) and the current political situation, I don't know why anyone would want to invest here!?"

So why comment here? Surely worse than investing here?

klassic; i think POO is already at a stratospheric level, in my opinion an unstainable one, and i view a more realistic 2 year average about $80, and i've based my continued investment here based on that; id oilers SP's are going to rise stratospherically, and certainly not at GKP.

Truthsayer: ...."WILL generate billions this year alone. That's basic maths. Your implications are it takes a pittance of that.
That sounds like boulderdash to me..."

It's basic maths that it will not generate billions. I mean 45k bbls @ $120 is only high single billion - based on no costs and GKP receiving every dime of that. There are costs, and GKP isn't 100% of that revenue. Ultimately, it will be 9%ish of that revenue, a point i think we will reach by year end. Income wise we will make quick hay until year end, as we receive costs back and and our current (higher) share of higher oil price. Post this year, forgetting costs, the same output and the same price would generate revenues of $178 million for GKP's share - to reach your billions annually, either the output would have to increase 6 fold or the OP increase 6 fold. The basic math's don't support your assertion.

We are in a sweet spot currently, for say six months where we are generating and throwing off considerable cash (dividends), and receiving an amazing return - a return that the Company, some current and previous shareholders have borne when the costs were borne but the revenues weren't flowing; to expect that high level of return in perpetuity, is more than ignorance of maths. It appears to me more as a frustration of not quadrupling one's investment in a year, than understanding that long term this (politics notwithstanding), could be the gift that keeps on giving. Long money not a quick buck. Personally, i've calculated this at giving off $100 million a year from 2023 onwards. I'm fecking delighted at that.

Personally in life, i've found to be disparaging because you don't agree with another's views/calculation, is of no value to anyone. I don't agree with all the views i see here, but i consider and more often value them , and whatever the differences of opinions, of numbers, never devalue the poster; question, ask, challenge, respond yes. The difference ultimately results in the $100 miilion per year i see happily as a reality, and the delusionary billions that will dissapoint their believers.

Thanks all; i've always got the potential here, but reading the below, am iin the ballpark with this scenario thinking:

Once CO has been depleted (bar the minimal ongoing cost) AND the R factor is 2, we receive our share of contractor PO going forward, namely 9.2%.

Post CO depletion, R2 being reached we will receive 9.2% of 45k bbls per day going forward? i.e totally disregarding the currently considerably higher receipts due to CO element, that 5 years production (production/oil price/govt variations not withstanding) receipts will equal current markey cap?