Member Info for Daisan

That is a pretty nauseating marketing video for Prophecy. Still, there are a couple of useful snippets of information in there.

I don't think that this is very likely but it is an intriguing one. If you truly want to be vertically integrated then it would make sense and the company has indicated the possibility of buying into VRFB companies but I think that this goes beyond what was envisaged here. Even if BMN is interested in doing this there is certainly no rush. They need a substantial injection of funds considering their market capitalisation and I suspect that there will be pressure on the share price in the run up to November. I have seen companies in their position go a lot lower than their market capitalisation in these situations so no reason for haste.

As an aside, I think that this is rather disappointing. This is a UK company in a field that has a great deal of potential and it would be great to see them succeed. The initial stages of growth for these companies is difficult and I suspect that the Vanadium price rise last year did not help them. However, the executive team deserve a fair amount of criticism for the remuneration they have received whilst the company was cash flow negative.

It would be interesting to understand why BMN has been removed from the MVIS index. If the ETF just follows this index then that would require the sell down however brutal that is!

But this is surely moot as we have been reliably informed by a market expert that nobody was selling down so it can't be true. :-)

It did indeed but the market took it which suggests that there is still selling around. I am slightly surprised that the very large trades on Friday (delayed or otherwise) have not resulted in a more positive reaction.

There are two arguments here. Firstly that the company executives are not capable of delivering and secondly that the assets are inappropriately valued. I confess I disagree with you on both.

I suspect that the key characters here do not operate in a manner that I would but, then again, I also suspect that they understand the environment far better than I do and can operate more effectively as a result.

I do know gold miners having invested in them for 20 years or more and I have learnt over the years to identify what I believe to be a decent deposit. I believe that Chaarat's Kyrgyzstan assets have the potential to be world class. As I have agreed, they are not there yet but the FS is a good start and you would have to be very closed minded not to believe that there was a lot more potential. I also believe that Kapan is a decent operation as well and that Chaarat got a pretty good deal when you compare it to similar scale assets.

Does this mean that I am going to bet the earth on this? No, I'm not. It is an emerging gold company in the FSU which is not the place I want to put all of my eggs. But I do think that it is worthy of an investment and if it goes down the pan then so be it but on the face of it our Chairman would lose a great deal in those circumstances unless you could outline a scenario where this is not the case.

Hmmm. A new poster with, coincidentally, exactly the same viewpoint as shakhtar.

Which could work although I still think it very unlikely. Do they have authority for a buyback still?

I think that highly unlikely when there is funding required for Vametco updates, electrolyte manufacturing, Vanchem purchase and (when it comes) Mokopane development.

Curiouser and curiouser

I am not sure anyone has been able to explain what has been happening with the trading here for some time. Plenty of theories of course. Normally I would say that the kind of after market trade we see here today has an air of finality about it but I have thought that before and BMN has been in a surreal domain for so long it is hard to say.

I suggested earlier that REMX was below the index weight on BMN currently. The 1.75m trade would be close to correcting that so it may well be them but the others - no idea.

One point I would add - the joint venture with Çiftay valued 12.5% of Tulkubash and Kyzyltash at $31.5 million, implying a valuation for the whole asset of $252 million which, considering the stage of development of both projects (Kyzyltash in particular), is not bad for a 'mediocre resource'.

Well, I try to look at all my investments objectively so tend to look beyond the 'marketing' as you call it.

I don't think that anyone would paint the Tulkubash FS as massively compelling (and I too disagree with using a 5% discount rate), primarily due to the mine life, extension of which will improve the value considerably (consider the change the last 12 months of drilling has made). But what is compelling about this ore body is the potential scale.

This FS covers only a fraction of the strike length and Tulkubash alone is likely to be a 5m+ oz resource. And whilst the grade is nothing stellar it is adequate for an operation of that size. But to consider Tulkubash on its own is to miss the point. Kyzyltash parallels the Tulkubash ore body and is already 5m+ oz along a fraction of the strike. It is refractory so requires a more capex but has a decent grade and is likely to be very large indeed. It is envisaged to produce 200-300k oz per year. The cash generation from Tulkubash will assist in the development costs.

Development of Tulkubash is already ongoing with infrastructure being put in place. I have no doubt that they will finance this project which is where the “top class management” management come in.

I think Kapan was a decent purchase. It is not astonishing (in the way that BMN's Vametco was for example) but it is a decent resource that is very likely to facilitate mine life extension. In a rising gold environment it will be very profitable and provides some cash flow for other operations.

But all of this also misses the point to some extent. The USP of CGH is the M&A activity within an area that can provide plenty of potential targets and CGH has the “top class management” that have the contacts and business skills to follow this through.

So, I would say that I understand your perspective whilst disagreeing with your valuation.

By the way. You say 'just trust me'. Of course I don't! I have no idea who you are. But neither would I expect you to trust me either. This is, after all, just a bulletin board to share views.

It seems to have bounced downwards!

I notice that the REMX holding has gone down again. Interestingly the BMN weighting in the fund is now 2.64% whereas the index the fund tracks has a weighting of 3.01%. The index is due to be reviewed on 25/6 so it may be that the fund is anticipating a reduction. If not then it should increase the weighting if it wishes to accurately reflect the performance of the index.

I suspect that most would.

In the meantime I suspect that we have delayed trades to come to explain the price action this morning. 600k seems to be the 'trade du jour' and I would not be surprised if one popped up with a timestamp between 9 and 10 (or just after).

But surely the entity with the short is going to get well and truly nailed on this if the bid is 210p?

I would agree that the large trade the afternoon before the bid is suspicious but I suspect that nothing will come of it.

Interesting that there have been offers in the $40s. Although it doesn't look like they were taken up it shows that bullishness is beginning to enter the market. Early days but promising after the total bashing the market has take for the last 6 months.

I must admit I did have a bit of a chuckle over the 'mediocre' comment.

Well, I wouldn't consider myself as massively knowledgeable but I do feel that poor comment should be rebutted when it is posted.

Adamp100,

Despite the fact that I admitted to being incorrect about the MM rules regarding naked shorting, I do not agree with you here. If you are shifting a very large position you inevitably have to expect that it will impact a share price when you sell it. I am sure that everyone would have seen this before on the market. Hell, we have seen it in BMN before. More than once! In fact, the reason I joined the BMN shareholder list was because Obtala did precisely that to the share price.

But a seller is a seller. Whether it is a massive named short or a large holder selling down, the result in the short term is price pressure. If it is a naked short and they have no exit via a large seller or a placing then I will be very happy for obvious reasons.