Member Info for Daisan

Hangry!

It's pretty binary. ALTN will either do spectacularly well or bomb. I think that the odds are getting better in which case it will outperform all of those you list.

Considering that the main shareholder owns a majority stake and would be hardest hit, I think that is probably more unlikely here than almost any other company on AIM.

Perversely I suspect that the pound will rise if we get a no deal Brexit after some softness. If everybody in the market sells then there is nobody left on the other side so the actuality tends to lead to the opposite result. I suspect that there are an awful lot of currency players who are currently short of sterling.

Very odd trading at the end. Or rather the price was going up and down like a yo-yo with little in the way of visible trades to justify it (after the first flurry). And then a small trade pops up at the end with a price that bears little relationship to any other. Delayed trades to be published later?

It's not fine anymore! It looks like the market makers are split as to where this is likely to go.

The share price has lagged the gold price which is unsurprising given the fact that the company rarely shares news with its shareholders. But the half year report is at least an opportunity to see whether the next six months are likely to be positive or negative. I am not expecting an awful lot from H1 as the gold price has really only taken off in the last couple of months and the new equipment has been operational after June. But there should be indications of an increase in grade and after period improvements in ore production. Or not!

The company sold forward 45k oz to ensure that their debt repayments were made. There was also a mandate associated with a loan but I am not convinced that is still in place. If it is then some form of hedge was required.

They have been rolling forward these contracts to take advantage of the current prices but recently there was an accrual associated with the difference between the forward sold ounces and current gold price.

I think those are just a cluster of PI sells. The volume is low so relatively limited transactions have a disproportionate impact.

Ok. Just had a look at their site. They do have an inferred JORC resource of 2.8Mt @ 0.66% V2O5. Compare this to Bushveld's resources. So, currently very small. However, they have had recent good intercepts, albeit from 200+ metres below surface, which should provide the opportunity to increase this.

It does look like an interesting, small scale operation with the caveat being timescales as I don't see any feasibility studies on their site and you would normally expect this for an ASX listed company.

There is an awful lot of important information missing here. Whilst the ability to extract the Vanadium economically looks promising, there is no indication as to how big the deposit is. With mining often high grade equates to low volume (at least these days this is the case as the elephants, with the rare exception, were found many years ago). These operations tend to be small but profitable but missing such obviously significant information begs the question why? Particularly as they have indicated potential for very early production which requires an awful lot of work to be done for an ASX listed company.

It's not dropping. It is 21p mid now so up a few percent on the day.

TomStorer,

The problem with stop losses on AIM shares is that prices are very volatile such that you have to accept the risk of them being triggered by temporary large drops. The problem with not having them is that you may expose yourself to large drops unless you are very disciplined. Your choice essentially - which is the lesser of two evils.

One approach used by some is perhaps one you should consider - a very wide stop loss or, if you adhere to TA, one set a few percent below a key support level.

ECB stimulus would likely put upward pressure on gold prices so that seems a poor reason. More likely is a suggestion on Kitco that hedge funds are profit taking. As they usually underperform they need to get profits from somewhere.

To be fair to the 'bulletin board experts' as you refer to them, their source of information is industry experts who mainly called for a supply deficit in what is a very opaque trading market. The ability of the Chinese to raise production as well as the, what appears to be, very limited adoption of the rebar standards (look at the increase in rebar production) combined with the higher than expected niobium substitution has taken most industry observers by surprise.

The game is not over, however, as the long term deficit is mainly centred around VRFB adoption. Lower Vanadium prices in the medium term should encourage adoption which should feed through to Vanadium consumption.

The end game is a much higher level of consumption and supply to create a more stable and transparent market. We are very far away from this currently.

A really interesting article which makes sense and clarifies a great deal for me.

Good post apart from the fact that not a single part of it was accurate!

Pdub,

I agree. As I said earlier, I have seen no indication that SA politics has influenced the share price other than perhaps acting as a dampener.

He's not the messiah! He's a very naughty boy!

Whilst I don't rule it out in the future (and we should always be wary of geopolitics), I confess that I don't see much evidence in the share price of changing views on SA politics. I certainly don't remember hope's of a 'new dawn' whilst Zuma was in power and didn't see much of an influence when Ramaphosa came in, although it was certainly warmly welcomed.

I have seen a lot of influence on the share price of the Vametco purchase and the subsequent rise and fall of the Vanadium price, although a lot of the increase came after completion of the deal.

As I said, geopolitical risks should always be high on the agenda for any investor but the risks have always been here and their variations have not obviously been visible in the share price other than as a permanent dampener.

Actually the buy price is currently higher than it was at Friday close.