Member Info for Daisan

Bassguy, Read your own post for clues of what I suspect are the thought processes of many PIs.

It may be that their Vanadium price assumptions for the year have not been met so they have revised down their target price. This speculation could, of course, potentially be resolved if the original poster would post a link!

As stated, I suspect that the drop is due to the fact that the Vanadium price has not performed as they expected (I seem to recall BMO releasing a bullish Vanadium note relatively recently). I still haven't seen a sign of the revised target.

The IPO for FAR was shocking and the market capitalisation is still pretty high for the current operations. It is a tricky one to judge as the longer term prospects COULD be excellent IF they deliver on their aspirations. We all know how big that 'IF' is though.

Market makers does appear to be something of an oxymoron.

I see that we have a couple of 50k sells again this morning but on the whole trading is excessively light. A holding pattern awaiting the next significant movement.

Do you have a link to this as I can't find it. I suspect this is on the back of Vanadium prices which are still not behaving in a manner that suggests a supply deficit.

If you get mugged in a UT it is at your own behest!

I see that Largo stopped their capital return programme today in light of their capital commitments and the currently weak (does anyone really understand it?) Vanadium price. The market responded predictably illustrating that it is better not to announce something than to announce it and then withdraw it subsequently. I think that they have lost a fair amount of investor goodwill as a result of this action, understandable though it is.

SickOfTheRatRace,

I agree that this would transform things whereas all of the UK share buy backs I have seen have produced very little in terms of share price movement as holders seem to use it as a reason to sell. For some reason I haven't fathomed it seems to work better in the US. Paying a maiden dividend tends to result in a price rise, AAZ being an obvious recent example.

Just designed to make all of the other trades look like sells. A classic technique and one that I suspect tends to work as they do keep on doing it.

I recall a company in the space I have specialised in did exactly that - went to companies and installed free kit (not cheap kit either!). Worked with them on how to use it and then arranged to pick it up 6 months later. Of course, by then the company was hooked and bought the kit. You have to be pretty convinced about the quality of your solution to make this work of course.

I think that there is a great deal of confusion surrounding the Vanadium price Drifter88 and nobody has a full picture of this. Possible explanations for why the price is currently lower than anticipated include:

- huge stockpiling took place in H2 2018
- revised rebar standards in China have not been fully implemented
- the slowdown in some forms of steel production has reduced the need for Vanadium
- Vanadium substitution by Niobium has offset the supply deficit
- increased supply from primary and marginal producers
- the supply deficit doesn't exist

I think anybody here is probably not going to consider the last of these likely until the evidence becomes overwhelming. I also think that there is plenty of evidence that steel production in the world's major producer is at high levels so this is unlikely to be a contributing factor. Which tends to suggest that a combination of running down stocks, incomplete implementation of Chinese rebar standards, increased supply and some substitution (albeit limited given that the price of Niobium is also falling the last time I checked) is probably close to the true situation. If this is the case then, at some point, the price is likely to rebound as the increased supply dries up (stockpiles diminish, marginal supply removed) and demand increases.

A futures market is a double edged sword. It can smooth price changes but it can also accentuate them. If a company can write unlimited numbers of contracts then the price is pretty easy to manipulate. The derivative market size for gold is multiples of the annual supply.

Interesting that there really is no buying interest here at the moment. Perhaps an update on Kapan will stimulate something as it will be absolute proof of a producing asset.

Better than that I believe:

"we anticipate group production of approximately 65 koz of gold equivalent in 2019".

It is a standard technique and I suspect that it works for the majority of casual observers, many of whom are probably not shareholders and are 'browsing'. I think that we have to remember that the participants of this board are far from casual observers.

Oops. Sorry for the double post.

Not where I was staying in Budapest!

Not where I was staying in Budapest!