Member Info for dab808

I don't mind the name Newmark Security and I expect it carries some weight in the market for the products they distribute, don't forget there are sub brands underwhich products are sold. Rebranding and the associated costs of agencies, websites, materials, legal contracts etc would cost as well as management time when we really need to be concentrating on hitting numbers and driving a profit. Nothing wrong with rebranding when we can pay for it out of profits if the business case stands up (needs a bit of research into whether it'll make enough difference to investors/customers). I am in the camp of the numbers must do the talking.

Enjoying your posts Hedgehog but EnSilca is a very different business.

There are a number of issues with Newmark that hold back the valuation but the main one is the family and shareholder control over the business. They control the business and make it the usual investor pressures very different. Most of the significant shareholders do very nicely out of the business as they receive some renumeration from the business. The rest of us shareholders are left a bit in the cold and this puts off a lot of investors.

The only way to get an increased valuation here is for the profits to start flowing and for them to be embedded in the business. Not swinging from profit into loss, profit into loss.

We did very nicely when the profits were flowing, nearing what today would be around £2.50 a share, but the profits didn't last and down we came.

I have for a long time been pushing for deals that involve reoccurring income through licences and maintenance which can underpin the revenue and remove some risk from trading. Too many times in the past slowdown in revenues against a fixed cost base have hit profitability. With no AGM I have not seen or heard from the management in a while.

However, we are now building in embedded reoccurring income and the expansion into the US is going really well. Costs seem to be under control and we are building price increases in to mitigate inflation. So I hope this really could be the bottom. In the end it will all come down to the numbers for this trading year and then how we can demonstrate this is not a one off. If we can pull that off then maybe 100p is a 12 month target, if we can do it again for a second year and show further potential then 250p could again be hit. 24 months we could be 8x higher than we are today in share price terms but they have to hit the numbers!

I read the results as revenue up but we did not increase prices to take into account rising costs so we are down on profit. We have borrowed more that expected yet are keeping the share buyback and increasing the the dividend. We expect to hit our numbers we have agreed with the board but we are letting you know that we are now cautious in our outlook. Overall this is not the positive update I was expecting as we have had a buoyant market up unit the last few months. We did not need to increase the dividend today neither should we be adding to debt to buy back shares as we do not know where interest rates will end up in the short/medium term. I have an average in the low 50's so not too happy with update today.

We are never going to get rich on deals this size to the number 1 military spender in the world. Nice to have as a customer but boy do we need to learn to upsell! Plus we need approach every other big spender and explain why the US has purchased these wearable detectors and why these are a must purchase. We need bigger orders, servicing contracts and profits urgently!

By spend 2022
The United States ($750 billion)
China ($237 billion)
Saudi Arabia ($67.6 billion)
India ($61 billion)
United Kingdom ($55.1 billion)
Germany ($50 billion)
Japan ($49 billion)
Russia ($48 billion)

Barclays raises AB Foods price target to 1,700 (1,500) pence - 'equal weight'
Deutsche Bank raises AB Foods target to 1,600 (1,575) pence - 'hold'
Goldman Sachs raises AB Foods price target to 1,420 (1,380) pence - 'sell'

Results look great and digital offering to come.

Perhaps linked to chip wars

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/07/china-criticises-british-minister-visit-taiwan-trade-talks-greg-hands

https://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/smart-money-sticks-with-semiconductors-as-chips-war-intensifies/a2400919

With firm action being taken on the economy I'd say we are at the bottom. Budget to come but Deliveroo appears well place to move up from here.

I've today messaged Marie-Claire to request they RNS the expected publication of the end of year results as well as requesting a trading update. The pre-results update read well and I appreciate we have a new CFO but we now over due the results and an update.

I remain positive on Speedy yet am amazed at the price. We have been steadily buying back shares, have paid a strong dividend and indicated in the last update that results will be in line if not ahead of expectations. That means continued dividends and the possibility of further buy backs (what else to do with the money?). Okay so the outlook has issues but not on capital spend, which requires machinery and Speedy is in a good place. Schroders today put out an increase in their holding so they are happy. So any ideas people? What am I not seeing? Should we buy HSS and spice things up a bit? Views welcome.

Just Group was boosted by an upgrade to 'market perform' at KBW. They were previously the lowest broker by far with a price on JUST of 48p. A move to market perform is excellent news, let's hope we can move back up towards a £1 then beyond.

Sucker here too. My first purchase was in the 70's in 2013 shortly after the float :(
At an average of 22p and with 65,000 shares it would be nice if this moved up as the opportunity cost of being here has been significant compared to my other investments. However, I see the light. The forecast revenue growth and move to profit is significant, particularly given the IP position. I see many of the contracts and particularly the revenue becoming embedded and thus continuing to build. Make one profit and it is easier to make the next. One time will tell but even when we pass my average hold price I will continue to hold. I need double my money back at least but the top end valuation would be nice.

Thanks for posting good stuff as usual Hedgehog. All going well NWTs year end results will be good. We want a message the US continues to grow and is helped further by the strength of the $. Positive EBITA is what it is about with a good outlook for the rest of the year and year as a whole. I want to see 20% growth and margin in the business. I have 82,000 shares now.

I've only just noticed that since the beginning of the tax year instead of cancelling the buy back shares we are now in a position of holding them in treasury with just over 8m now held. At an average price of under 50p, this means have only bought back only 4m shares/£2m in cash terms in the last 2 months. I've taken a look at all the transactions and roughly (as there were some shared issued for sharesave) we are look like we have repurchased 21m shares to date. Based on the agreed amount, up to 52m shares to be repurchased or £30m this means we can still repurchase 30m shares. The buy back has to complete by late September so this roughly 4 months and therefore 7.5m shares a month. Now that is a lot of shares and could substantially lift the price from here if they get anywhere near it. GLA.

Excellent set of results and the confident comments on the forward looking picture are exactly what's needed. Would be wonderful if the share price reflected such confidence but Mr Market is a very strange beast at times,

USD/GBP has also given the divi a healthy lift. 16p annualised return from a boring stock that trades in the 180-200p range. Happy days.

Finally a cash offer at 48p. Happy days.

With the share buy back programme this has to pick up. They have the permission to purchase £30m of shares! No idea who is selling under 70p where this should be...

There are the numbers laid out for all to see. Great to see the business finally back on track especially with the takeover distractions. Management very bullish. Strong start to 2022. Buy, plenty upside from here.

Well that's nice to see logging on. Downside seems to have minimal risk from here, two serious parties at a minimum of 42p, some volume going through at 46p in the first 45 minutes seems to suggest some are happy to move on but someone must be buying and one would hope there is another 20% upside in the price. So that's my position - hold for the possibility of a bidding war.