Member Info for dab808

Looks like we have added an RNS service to the website. Let's hope it is there for a good reason :)

https://newmarksecurity.com/investor-relations/rns-alerts/

I've exchanged messages with Marie-Claire today. The company has set a date for the results and she advised there is also another investors presentation to follow along with the AGM which will take place at the end of October. I fed back that it would be really good for investors to know these dates in advance, particularly as I expect we'll see some interest from investors on the back of the results. She agreed that she would put these dates out into the public domain now that they are set. So let the countdown commence to a significant re-rating!

The US opening up is the catalyst for huge revenue growth and the company is well positioned. The HardRock deal looks good. Paying down 200m of debt is a positive sign and again the timing couldn't be better. No need to roll the debt into higher interest bonds and no need for short term borrowing is good news. Profit? Well it looks like they have had a clear out, not gone into the detail as yet but I would say we should be looking at revenues, profits and dividends all being re-rated in the next few days by analysts who will up their recommendations on the target price.

Not sure of an L&G offer anywhere near those levels. A buyer might come in but a lot of the major firms do exactly what JUST does, so they don't need the infrastructure, products or regulatory permissions. They do need forward cashflow and with IRFS17 the growing run off will look good for profits and the balance sheet given there is 204p of value. Any price below 150 would be an effective use of capital. I'd hope the average analyst price moves towards this number. Capital returns will be light here, clearly the capital can be used better growing the balance sheet/ An offer nearer 200 would only come from a player that is not already in the market but the PRA have made the bar high for these takeovers. This business is now shipshape virtually no nasties in the closet with most of the past risks managed away. A definite BUY for me. DYOR

I'd expect a fair few analysts to shift to a more positive position and up their target price. This should help continued momentum in the price so worth adding on dips as we rise. Great to see investors recognising market share is only one part of the equation and it'll be sensible profitable growth that wins the day here.

I hope he apologised for his earlier tips, now is probably the right time to be tipping but his previous timing has been awful. My tip which is worth checking out is Newmark Security. Due to report a tidy profit in September, 4x PE, US business is stella growth. If you like to take a little risk there is far more upside on offer than downside. I don't usually ramp but they've just revamped their website and are boasting about 3x revenue growth in the next 3-5 years. https://newmarksecurity.com/

What's done is done. It has been awful. But looking forward there is hope.

"Kromek is on track to report an underlying profit (adjusted EBITDA) this year to April 2024" Basu added.

Nice post Hedgehog. A good video although we of course know most of this. It is great to have the CEO stating them for the record, we just need to ensure other investors find this. It's somewhat frustrating that there have been no RNS's this year on new contracts to back up these bold claims although I'm happy adding at these levels. My summary of the past 6 months is we have had little news about forward momentum. We're awaiting the results, which we know will show a good profit c£1m+ but it is the outlook which will be all important. It has also not been a bad period for the shares that have traded sideways with a stable price creating a good resistance around 50p. But I am hungry for a rise to the next level!

What about an offer Hedgehog? My wife's firm has just been picked up by a private equity business and I have to say having been part of a couple a take overs and a float in my career both PE, I can imagine that as news breaks on the full year and the new model is understood out there, we have a real opportunity for a firm to come in with an offer (say at £20m) and look to invest £5m (through loan notes) to drive the value to £100m with a 3-5 year exit plan. This would be an ideal opportunity to incentivise the new management team as well. I can't see anything below £20m being considered given the shareholder structure and I could see the PE firm offering the incentive to retain some investment if the existing shareholders want to roll again.

If I was the Chairman and CEO, it would be something I'd be exploring, if only to see what interest there is.

You make a good point in the structural changes around rates but managing the balance sheet based on risk and rates is what these businesses are about. To be fair, I think I understand. Firstly, they have the PRA all over them, internal models and hedging on key positions. Unfortunately, low risk pension/unit trust holders have/are taking the hit on the low returns. Those who purchase annuities and other matched products are taking the hit. Whilst they have some skin in the game, the companies themselves are constantly protecting their positions and whilst they will take a hit here or there exposure is limited.

Mad world. Our long term savings and insurance businesses in the UK hit great numbers, are well capitalised and provide great pay-outs yet remain on low P/Es. Great whilst you're a buyer for a period but it would be nice to see the true value at some point.

Agreed, we are where we are and that is now better capitalised albeit with a lot more shares in circulation and those investing today likely to take some profits along the way (if we rise from here of course). The only way to claw back losses is to go again for the brave. The investment from those in the know is the best signal we have as to future prospects, so I am in.

I did the same and took the decision to get out around a month ago when the previous deal was rejected. I'd been here from the start, in and out but I am now definitely out. Just popped back to look at the results and everything that made me sell has been confirmed. This is now a massive turnaround play and frankly I can't see it happening, if you are an income investor it will be a long time perhaps never before a divi can be reinstated.

Unfortunately, the competition is just too good, they are investing and winning customers. It must be pretty easy to sell against IDD, when your competition can't actually deliver because its staff are out on strike and they will be again as things get tougher, layoffs are required, pay rises can't be given. The only way you can pay your staff more is by being successful and the latest financial position says decline and bust . A lack of change in the modern world will take out any commercial organisation and unfortunately this is an old world business.

In summary, another steady year of good returns, investment and shareholder value. Divi up. I'm a happy investor.

The only other number published in what was a fairly light TD was the cash position. Looking back at the 1/2 year results there was only £63k in the bank so we've accumulated £550k from the 1/2 year. As cash usually lags in a growth business this could represent a further positive sign (full detail only available in the full year position).

Overall what was expected. Growth in software licencing reoccurring revenues 133% awesome. Would have loved them to be more bullish and put out 'profit expected to be in excess of XX' but guess we'll need to wait. Disappointed to see lines of stock sold at 55p but price is up so there must be some order action for shares. A long wait to full year results and the next trading update, we can hopefully get a RNS or two out on the big deals we have in pipeline. What a growth play this share is, very comfortable with my stake and will likely continue to add on any weakness. Buys going through +60p is great to see. Over £1 by Christmas no problem.

It stalled for a bit but it has moved up nicely in the last 6 weeks. There is value here and the market is recognising it, particularly in light of the gambling review which seems balanced enough not to scare the horses. There also remains a good chance of acquisition activity in this sector. Overall positive sentiment.

As always little posting activity when shares are rising steadily :)

Question raised - Dr Basu & Mr Farquhar can you disclose your level of participation in the recent fund raise?

How would you respond to the question that your level of participation does not seem to reflect yours and the Chairmans statements about opportunities and growth? What should investor read from your level of participation and the confidence in the business moving forward?

I personally am in and believe things are moving in the right direction. The business will become a good business, revenues now appear to be materially growing. I also believe that the current management team have destroyed huge value over the years and made significant mistakes, for this we need to understand the price they pay.

That is the question to ask at the investor meeting that has just been announced. Is he also buying in the open offer? The statement reads like he is not taking it up. WHY?

No idea how we reach enough shareholders or how we make them listen but I am in. I have around 150,000 shares.