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Interesting commentary in Thalassa Holdings results published on the 29th September. They'd sold some shares back in March.

"Share price performance of NWT continued to recover slowly through H1 2023. We still believe that, given the age of its chairman and the fact that he has three children, two of whom are not involved in the company, that NWT will, in due course, be sold. We are patient investors and will continue to hold our position."

Given they hold 10% this view maybe based on some fact. The question is what price would NWT accept? 250p (£20m valuation) or nearer 600p (£50m valuation). I think (based on disclosed accounts and management views on revenue growth) that a £2.5m profit in 24/25 is well on the cards which will begin to become demonstrable in the next couple of reporting periods. That's a 10x to 30x PE valuation. It is a growth technology play in huge markets with partners of significant size and reach, so a top end PE is well within reach.

This is a huge bargain in a market full of bargains, but this one has the opportunity to pay back big time on what appears to be a fairly risk free downside (again looking at the recent performance, cash position and management disclosed confidence about the future).

It is like a list of the stocks in my portfolio. I only need Drax and I have a full set....

What next to buy I wonder :)

All for banking some profits but I hope you've gone too early (I need 40p).

Momentum is certainly with us.

Let's hope this rise is on the back of deals bubbling in the background. Either we have a new customer or that a bidder wants to buy the capacity opportunity that IQE can provide and we're in the throws of stake building for a take over.

Good luck all.

Tomorrow

So there is life in the old dog yet.. Very quiet here though. Is everyone on holiday or posting elsewhere these days? Yesterday price rise was clearly a leak ahead of today but we're nicely up this week and long may it continue.

Results next week, on the backdrop of lower inflation and interest rates yields falling allowing borrowers to lock into cheaper rates to fund some home improvements or businesses to consider kicking off some infrastructure investment.

Let's hope we've seen the bottom and we begin to gain some traction again. Money flowing back to FTSE 250 finally!

Fantastic results. Growth in revenues, significant growth in new products, huge growth in profits. Buybacks and dividend increases.... Happy days. Price will obviously fall...

Someone had to post here to say hurrah! Great results and a positive rise! So there, I've done it!

I'd agree on the interest front. If we are not planning to pay the interest and are issuing new shares we want the price to be flying. We ended the trading period to the 30th October on Monday. It'll be interesting to see if we issue a trading update. If the results are as favourable as some posters suggest this should be out sooner rather than later.... We will see...

We complimented the management team on the improved investor approach. The new website, video, RNS services and the resent presentations. They responded positively to this and welcomed input from investors on how they can go further. We recommended a deep dive on the US business would be a great area to cover a future meetings.

The new auditors have done a great job, lower impact, easy to work with and lower cost. Timings are back on track, 1H results should be out in January, full year results out in September 24.

After the session I caught up with another investor. We agreed that the last few years have been transformational for NWT and we have a very bright future ahead. Now's the time to get in given we're pretty sure that there is no need to tap the market for cash to keep the business running and there is nothing baked into the numbers for the stella growth underway.

Just happy days for NWT shareholders.

Hi all,

So I attended the AGM today, here is a quick summary.

The directors appeared very happy with the state of play. Everyone was in good spirits, the business is performing inline/ahead of expectations (they don't do forecasts). Lost UKG income is being replaced and the strategy is working well. All resolutions passed, then the meeting closed and they opened to questions.

The RNS earlier in the day was discussed. It was great that we have updated on UKG but we (the shareholders present) requested that the company disclose further in the 1H results the true revenue impact associated with the loss of UKG so we can see for ourselves the like for like and underlying growth in 1H 23 verses 1H24 with and without UKG. We reiterated that whilst management can see the more detailed growth picture, we as shareholders cannot. This means we must wait until the final results for 2024 to work through and even then the picture would remain murky. Marie-Claire took this on board with nods from Paul so we really hope that we'll get this view as we can only see an outcome that is positive.

We discussed the US business in more detail than ever before. We have 9 FTE based in the US. They are doing an amazing job and across HCM we are now working with 40 software vendors. These US staff is supported from the UK, this provides a very cost efficient way of working. As reported in the RNS today subscriptions are up significantly. As the software vendors are doing much of the business development, and we support from the UK in the background, we do not need to add significantly to the head count as we grow. We have a very scalable and low overhead operating model with reoccurring revenues. Not only is this growing rapidly in the US but we now have the rest of the world (reported as up 35% from a low base to scale on) again without adding much overhead. Given our growing presence in the US, Marie-Claire is out in the US in a few weeks time and will present to some US investors our business and model - exciting stuff.

Both MD's are making an enormous difference, and supporting each others strategies.

We didn't go deep on Safetell other than the automated doors install and maintenance business is scaling and teeing nicely with safety screens as an overall package. We are winning further contracts and all this scale is reducing the sub-scale inefficiencies previously reported. A UK servicing network is being established for national UK businesses/stores and Government contracts.

We talked capital and fundraising and whether this was needed. No need to do anything on either front at present was the confident response. Supplemented by that doesn't mean that where it might make sense from a growth or acquisitions perspective, it wouldn't be ruled out. I took from this that we are well positioned given the cash balance increases YoY recently announced and further positive traction into 2024.

Thanks for your posts Hedgehog.

It'll be interesting to see what comes from the AGM tomorrow and any RNS preceding it.

I will of course be attending in person although on the back of the finals my expectations for this year have been somewhat muted given we need UKG to work itself through.

There are a couple of positive factors, the first being the price rises that we have successfully embedded and the second the inventory run down. Both would be good for cash flow. I noted debt servicing costs have quadrupled in the last 3 years, it'd be good to stop wasting £300k on debt servicing.

We have to lift revenues but with the UKG position I believe this will only show up in 2H 24 results. I hope I am wrong and we see the uplift earlier.

I will report back from the AGM tomorrow with a note. If you're not there and have any questions you want asked let me know.

Keep the faith, we'll get there.

5.9p EPS for the first 9 months. Just like Barclays our banks are set to return 20% roe in a year based on the current price. A sImply crazy valuation.

28p EPS. 134p share price. All I can say is it's great to be a buyer at these levels. I wouldn't want to be a seller. UK to rebound at some point. I just hope its before I retire....

This doesn't feel like rumour, nor should it be. Amazing value in the insurance sector.

FTSE 250 as a whole is yet to be re-valued. We've been impacted for years by pension deficits with profits hived off to top up pensions schemes. With long term rates 30+ years at record yields every scheme is moving to surplus and this should mean money will flow the way of the shareholder. Oh and Aviva etc benefit from bulk buy outs. Win win win.

There's a vote of confidence. Mad valuation if you ask me.

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/market/1696359959024034100/in-brief-wife-of-phoenix-group-ceo-buys-shares-worth-gbp100000

The gap between HSBC and it's peers is growing, that's good to see as it is a quality bank so it'll hopefully continue to hold that martin and then it will go one of two ways. It'll fall back inline with sector performance or what I am hoping is the sector will follow suit. Only time will tell. £8.20 would be very nice, although I'll take some profit around £7.50 for sure.

Hi Hedgehog,

Great to hear from you.

Yes, it is a blip I'd agree. I posted after the AGM earlier in the year that UKG would impact the 2H but I think we could have told the story a little better and prepared shareholders as to the significance of the impact. My calculations were well out on the impact of the lost revenue and we have taken a bigger hit in the 2H than I expected.

I have a call tomorrow with Marie-Claire and Paul to chat through whether we can get more clarity published on the UKG impact. My assumptions are now that we lost around £1m of revenue in 2H due to UKG and whilst we worked hard to make it up, things didn't go quite to plan and we left a gap that dents the story.

This impact will continue into 1H 24, like for like, we had UKG income in the numbers for 1H23 so 1H24 will not look so pretty. So my steer to the team is to explain the like for like with the UKG numbers as a known assumption so we can see the underlying growth picture. At the moment we can't see it and that has made investors nervous. Not me as I know the history, although I would really value seeing the underlying picture in order to be really bullish.

It'll take a whole year from now to have the UKG impact visible and that is just too long to wait.

It is great that they are listening and my feedback is there just to help. They might run with it, they might not but I think that most shareholder will accept there was nothing we could do about the loss of UKG (it was a takeover) and if our growth story can continue to be told with the underlying numbers then what have we got to lose by being a little more transparent at the next update.

Keep well. Good luck.

We made a loss in 2H 22/23 by my simple calculations due to the loss of UKG (announced a while ago) impacting revenue. Revenues dropped £0.9m in 2H over the 1H where we made a £0.5m profit. FY profit of £0.3m suggests a £0.2m loss. This significantly impacts the growth story so why we are not highlighting the impact of the loss of the contract in financial terms amazes me. I'll be firing that over as a question for the results call later today.

I've not had time to run through line by line and will be doing that later. What stood out was the US where I was expect £10m of revenue. Revenues actually dropped from £4.87m to £3.9m. Again we need to understand this from the call later, is this where the UKG revenue was running through?

Things are still too tight for my liking. An annual positive return for shareholders is welcome, but it looks due to the fact that we reduced R&D costs by £300k is driving the profit number. Lots of commentary on new sales teams and growth but headcount fell by 4 FTE. Again if this is driven by refocusing and cutting costs on non-revenue earning FTE then great but where are the results?

On the bright side the message on revenue growth of 2/3 times was put out in the coming reporting period so Marie-Claire must have enough confidence to continue with that message. If we knew the value loss of UKG we could all do our sums and work out the true performance - I want to know that number and I want a Q1/1H 24 update ASAP.

Indeed a massive boost! The whole UK market with DB liabilities will surely be announcing similar positions in the coming months. The whole market could take off. I hope Wincanton is reviewing it's options around bulk DB transfer so we can get the liabilities risk gone for good.

As per my exchange with Marie-Claire we can now all pencil in the 26th September for our results!