Member Info for CynderLad

Wizard,

RBL, oh my, you should consider a career in comedy. You'll have to work very hard to find a lender willing to enter into RBL for an asset such as HH. i.e.
1) CPR is out of date and not reflective of the data and learnings from the last 3 years.
2) Current production levels are pathetic. 75 bopd provides $1.65 million in revenue (before costs).
3) If UKOG could state the asset level costs of maintaining HH with output at 75 bopd, then it would be possible to determine asset level profits, but lets assume that they can make 30% profit. So ~$550k per annum.
4) RBL against an out of date CPR and profits of $550k per annum would be pitiful. You'd be lucky to get $1million and the interest rates would not be competitive.
5) Drilling a new well in the UK at HH/Loxely/IoW site would be $5million, so you still have a massive shortfall in funding. UKOG would need $15million to drill at all 3 sites, you'll not get RBL anywhere sufficient to cover even one drill.

Then there is the need to understand and read the game. Silent Steve considered the CLN with YA as "not death spiral financing". Yet anyone who's ever witnessed the outcome of a CLN arrangement knows that CLN == Death Sprial Financing. The CLN arrangement with YA was one of the MAJOR factors in the SP being smashed from 1p+ down to sub 0.3p. Covid and Brent Price impact also hurt, but it was CLN that did the bulk of the damage.

The CEO also loves to make statements likes "smell the oil", "train is leaving the station", etc, etc. Some of his interviews are a delight to watch, serious cringeworthy efforts where his body language says the complete opposite of what's coming out his lips. He's uneasy in front of a camera and refuses to do an investor call.

But yeah, RBL is an option... LOL. It may be enough to cover portaloo rental at HH based on the current CPR and production rates.

Wizard, there is no value in debating whether it was exploration, appraisal, etc, etc, etc.

Facts remain.

HH1 is approaching a sub-commercial status. It needs to keep above 75 bopd to remain sufficient to keep the lights on at HH.

HH2z is still waiting for approvals to convert. If converted (big IF), then it may give pressure support to HH1, but I'm not banking on it given the statements from UKOG in the past about HH2z being into a different compartment / virgin play. Whether it does anything to help HH1 is a big question. Failing that, it will at least give UKOG a reduction in OPEX through not having to pay BKP to truck water away.

Regardless of what the RNS's state in relation to the Kim, the actions speak louder:
1) Haven't seen any activity on HH1 to produce from the Kim for a long long time. Why is that?
2) They didn't drill down to the Kim on the initial HH2 vertical. Why is that?
3) They commented in the Loxley application that the Kim at BB was sub-commercial. Its in the planning documents.
4) They haven't undertaken the dual completion on HH1 to produce from Portland and Kim in unison. Why is that?

HH3 = big cash call. HH4 = same.
No cash in the coffers for either. If Turkey comes off (big IF), then they'll need to continue to shove cash into AME's pockets to pay for subsequent drills. That's going to impair their ability to pay for anything on-shore in the UK. Meanwhile, the clock is ticking and they'll unlikely be able to do anything further at BB, certainly not going to be able to do anything on IoW (even if planning is granted), and unlikely to be able to do anything at Loxley.

The lack of cash, and commitments to Turkey == UK exploration will be on-hold for 2+ years at a minimum. That's unless SS goes back to the PI money tree with further placings. Check the trend and history of UKOG placings. It makes for terrible reading.

When UKOG drops, it drops like a stone.

The continued lack of clarity of the placing and a CEO who makes the invisible man look bad.

Today's SP is driven purely by trading, it's trending down. So I'll go with 0.235p, I can see it dropping fast when it does go.

Pboo,

I take offense with your insinuation that I am FOTH. I'd suggest you check my posting history. Do you really think that Adrian could post more than 10 words without making several spelling mistakes? Would you also consider whether Adrian has grammar in keeping with that of mine?

Your insinuations could not be further from the truth. I am a UJO holder (as you will see in my posts), and yes I am a UKOG CEO basher. I am not a UKOG basher per se, it is the issue with the CEO that creates animosity.

I see on Twitter that FOTH is pumping OILEX. I sold out there last week for a small profit.

I do owe you an apology though. Just re-read the Twitter posts, and it was Weald Spoilers that was using the term Swampy. I see that you are using the term Protestors. So, please do take this as an apology.

I don't have Twitter, but if I did, then I'd ask you there.

If the Swampy are your friends, then why do you refer to them as "swampy friends"? Would they not be insulted by that?

Would they prefer to be called something with a little more respect?

Also, if swampy are your friends, then do they not care about your uncompromising support for UKOG and ANGS? Or does that not count as something that goes against the very core of their being?

Seems to me that you are a little confused.

I see that FOTH has taken a screenshot of my post. You are welcome to do that, this is a public forum and anything I post is there for any and all to debate.

Boovie, that is interesting. Is he still on LSE? FOTH seems to be calling him out as a Unicorn zookeeper.

Seems to like name calling and saying people who think a placing is needed are idiots.

1) What it the current UKOG cash position?
2) Why did UKOG delay the annual accounts (and thus hide their cash position as of 30th Sept 2020, and also hide their director remuneration burn rate)?
3) £2.2m raised on 2nd Oct 2020, its over 6 months ago, so what has been the burn rate?
4) What exactly does "initial drill" mean in the Turkey placing RNS? Does that cover the full drilling costs, or just the "initial costs"?
5) Last 2 Turkey RNS updates, UKOG have not mentioned their funding position. If they were fully funded then they would certainly have included a statement to this effect. Fact that they failed to state "fully funded for first well in Turkey" says a lot.

If I had a twitter account, then I'd reply on Twitter, but I don't.

However, before calling posters here "idiots", you may also wish to look at the long line of RNS's with "placings" for activity x and activity y at Horse Hill, only for further placings for exactly the same thing were needed.

Mr Sanderson (UKOG CEO) has a history of keeping bad news quiet. If there was no placing needed, then he would have already made that clear. He hasn't. Thus I'm inclined to take the position of there being a placing. The lack of annual accounts and burn rate make it difficult to know their cash position, but I've already offered up my verdict of what the placing will raise. You can go look at my posting history, it's all there.

Do some research before you consider the opinions of others. Don't take my opinion above as gospel, go do your own research and see where you get.

Placing on 2nd Oct 2020 was for "£2.2 million"
That's over 6 months ago.
Given UKOG have delayed the annual return to Companies House until end of April, then we cannot scrutinize the burn rate and build a baseline from their cash position.
However.... £2.2 million is not a great deal of cash based on UKOG's previous cash burn, I would not be surprised if it's all been eaten up over the last 6 months operating costs.

Traders taking profits. I don't blame them. Profit is king for traders, simple.

Zak Mir probably hoping for a single bag. Beware of the dogs....
Pump it up, create the frenzy, take the lower risk entry point, take a profit, then move onto the next sucker stock.
Seen it too many times to risk hard earned.

Wait for the profit taking pre-lunch?
Can the bull run sustain a few days this week?
Will the SP breach 0.4p?
Will the placing RNS drop?
Will Silent Steve (aka CEO of UKOG) ever do an interview or investor call?
Tune in this time tomorrow, same bat time, same bat channel.

TollesburyStu stated: "Looking forward to you checking back in at 4:30 Cynders. Please do."

Well, it is 16.17 and I'm done for the week. That's enough of market games for me for 4 days

I did say "When UKOG drops, it drops like a stone. "

Guess I was right, but hey ho, it's an easy call with UKOG, especially given the joke of a CEO.

I take no pleasure in being right, but maybe you should do more analysis and thinking rather than playing the ramping games fuelled with unicorn poop. You know what, research = covers 99% of the risk.

I've said it many times over the last couple of months.

IF UKOG were fully funded for the first drill in Turkey, then they would have said that in the last couple of RNS's. They haven't.

If you know the CEO, Silent Steve as I like to call him. Silent Steve Sanderson cannot help himself when it comes to good news, so even a snippet of good news and the guy is shouting from the rooftops.

However..... When there is bad news, the CEO hides away and keeps the market in the dark. He is knowingly withholding market sensitive news.

If they were fully funded, he would be obligated to issue an RNS to state that to be the case. The SP has nose dived today on the back of traders taking profit, but its also due to the on-going circus show and lack of clarity from the CEO.

p.s. "initial drilling" is one way of Silent Steve hiding the true costs. Does "initial drilling" cover the full cost of drilling, EWT, etc, or just the cost to get the hole drilled prior to casing, work-overs, etc, etc, etc.

Some research notes for you:

1) As per RNS on 2nd Oct: "successfully raised £2.2 million to fund its share of initial drilling and seismic costs through a placing"

2) As per RNS on 14th Oct: "Basur-3 well and flow test gross costs are estimated by AME at $3 million (£2.4 million)"

3) As per RNS on 14th Oct: "UKOG pays first $5 million of drilling and seismic costs"

So they raised £2.2m, but need £2.4m, or is it $5m?

The thing with Silent Steve is that he likes to hide facts and instead provide "half-a-story".

The delay in the UKOG annual filings with Companies House also serves to hide the cash balance and burn rate.

By my reckoning, they have nowhere near the £2.4m that AME require from them in cash (or is it $5m)? How can UKOG quote 2 very different figures in the space of a few lines in the same RNS on the 14th Oct 2020?

AME will take the full rights to the license *unless* UKOG stump up the cash for the drill. As UKOG don't (in my opinion and calcs) have the cash, then they could end up in a default position, oops. I'm 99.999999% certain that a placing is coming before the end of April, and with the history of Silent Steve and his finance dude, they typically place when the market is active with high volumes.

So, don't be surprised if the placing is already being forward sold with an RNS come Monday (or even close today).

Just my opinion. But do one thing for yourself, do some research!

4.30 is approaching. Do you want to compare notes on the SP as per our exchange earlier?

Its looking like sub 0.3p to me, whereas you were calling for 0.5p.

Placing ahoy...

Maybe some of the UKOG profit takers are starting to pile in here

The UKOG record is an old one, it's not changed, there is a massive scratch and it keeps jumping back to the same old spot.
Pump, dump, place, rinse, repeat.

Ok Tollesbury. Let's check back in. 0.47p when I checked at 8.10, now 0.32p to sell. You really think that is just MM's and a tree shake? Ok, back to your unicorn grooming, keep selling that rainbow poo

When UKOG drops, it drops like a stone. This could be back at 0.11p in the blink of an eye. The P&D crew seems to be done. MMs had their nice fill of easy money this week. Close the book, it's Friday. Come back next week, see if there are still enough rainbow chasers to rinse and repeat.