Member Info for CynderLad

A little birdy tells me that FOTH has seen tankers at HH, but has not tweeted the pics or videos. Well isn't that a surprise....

Do you really belief your own ramps? Absolutely shocking.

Perenco operate 100 wells to get 8,000 boepd. LOL. So that 1 AME/UKOG well could deliver as much as 80 bopd if they don't drill a duster. Great transformational figures, LOL.

A CPR does not guarantee or assure that what was forecast can be recovered. It's all mathematical modelling with many factors that are based upon observations and assumptions. Bit like the weather forecast old boy, you should always have a brolly handy because you never know when it's going to p33 on you. Just because Xodus mentions 2-3 wells with up to 45%, does not mean that they were bang on the money with cast iron assurances. Its an assumption driven model. If they knew the natural fracturing (as seen in HH2z) then that CPR would have looked quite different. Which begs the question, "why haven't UKOG commissioned a new CPR?". My view, "because it would make for some very very bad reading that they couldn't hide away from the shareholders!".

Current rates of production, ~100 bopd, would take ~13 years to extract 500k barrels.
If UKOG could realise $50 profit per barrel (which is asking a lot), then they stand to receive income of $25m or ~£18 over that 13 years.
£18m profit, versus how much to drill HH3/HH4/workovers, etc. They will see profits of ~£1.4m per year, that only covers the asset level OPEX, not the UK overheads. The BOD and HQ staff would consume £1.4m p.a. in short shrift.
UKOG need to hit the bullseye with Turkey, otherwise, they are going to have to cut their cloth to measure.

e.g. If HH were to be retained. All other licenses surrendered. Future drills of HH3/4 abandoned. Staff cut to the bear minimum. CEO and BOD not retained in favour of a much smaller and cheaper team, then HH would be serviceable for as long as it delivers 100 bopd and poo remains decent.

You can see just how much risk there is with UKOG. If they cannot bring other assets online, then it's game over as a listed company with development ambitions. It'll be run it into the dirt and sweat the HH asset until its dry.

UKOG RNS and strategy/plans = pinch of salt. Sando has not delivered anything on time with a successful outcome. He's been trying for years, using PI cash to fund his half baked ideas, lacking any business acumen and taking a lovely wage packet and bonus without blushing.

Check out the Tweet from 30th April from UKOG. The grey rectangle on the satellite pictures is nothing more than grey gravel. They would not be laying concrete for cabins and parking. This is Turkey after all.

Only concrete I would expect on site would be for the well pad itself. Storage tanks will be on compressed gravel.
The spud feels like it is drifting to the right quite a bit. Will it happen before July? Cash please!!!!

ZYX098, "HH3" and "HH4" are "smoke" and "mirrors". Will never be drilled.

I would trust the company over the well-known s stirrer that is Pboo.

AME will be wanting the next instalment of cash very soon. UKOG as cash strapped, not just for Turkey, but also to cover the UK.

Then you have the Placees, i.e. the folks that Sando will do a deal with to pick up billions pf shares. The Placees will want as shares at the lowest price.

So Sando is now stuck in the middle of it. AME want that cash, the UK operations need the cash, but the Placees want cheap shares. What can Sando do to reduce the SP? Answer, he did one very dirty trick last week with the Geothermal RNS. That put a dent in the SP. What will he try next?

Watch this space, placing by mid May, so end of next week. Enough said.

To those who think UKOG have enough cash in the bank:
1) 30th Sept bank balance was £1.6m
2) 2nd Oct 2020 placing was £2.2m
3) Burn rate is £1.6m per 6 months, 7 months since Oct, they've burned £1.9m
4) That leaves them with £1.9m, and Turkey will cost a capped $5m (~£3.6m).
5) UK operations need a further £1.6m for the remainder of 2021.

So I make it that UKOG are a mere £3.3m short for 2021. Will that be 2 placings this year? Or will Sando go for the treble and raise more towards the back end (as he'll have to fund the UK into 2022).

Seeping oil. Snake oil maybe.

Facts are one thing Pboo. But suggesting that there are "problems" just because a crane goes to site is something altogether different. You cannot help but S' Stir. So how about you park the theories and stick to the Facts.

"Very misleading and annoying." Those 4 words sum up the CEO of UKOG. Good luck with your trade though. Did you not read the earlier posts about red/blue. Ignore the colour, it's only a guide, the market and the MM's are not looking at the colour dude...

I'd ignore the colour of the recorded trade, it is a pitfall for the unseasoned.
It matters not if it is red or blue, the price and volumes are all that really matters, especially if you are someone that likes to track that kind of stuff.
I don't track trading patterns on an hour to hour basis, it's the company fundamentals that count. Unless you're looking for a quick trade, LOL, good luck with that using UKOG, you have to time it better than Tendulkar of a bouncing pitch in the West Indies.

FOTH, Aka "TheBayleave". You don't need a Twitter account to read tweets, you can just search on the hashtag.
p.s. tweet your address and I'll post you a Dictionary and a Dummies guide to using spell check on digital devices.

Park it FOTH. We all know your games. Go put on some Beatles music and think about where your long lost love is nowadays. I doubt she wonders where you are...

Yes, "TheBayleave" which is the wrong spelling for "The Bay Leaf" is Adrian Watkins. Aka FOTH, aka DaveTheDrill, Aka the fire extinguisher technician who loves to camp out at HH.

p.s. I think "TheBayleave" just gave up his true identity. LOOOOOOOOL.

FOTH, he loves to criticise people on Twitter. I don't use Twitter, so cannot reply to him there. I do use LSE, so can post here.

The guy is a clown.

"significant improvement"... LOL

Oil production at HH dropping off
Water disposal costs increasing at HH.
Legal fees to cover Loxley (you get that back if you win, but legal folks get paid on the job)
Turkey costs (higher than the £2.2m raised in Oct.
Temporary pay cuts (which were a joke) have ceased.

And you think that there will be a significant improvement? Did you go to the same school as FOTH and opt out when 13?