Member Info for CynderLad

You'll need a "witch" with her magic for a blue day.

But if you were asking "which", then I would say, its red for the next few days, maybe 2 weeks, until the pump and dump crew return at a lower entry to pump this to spud.

LOL. Sold out long ago, and maybe should've held and sold in the 40's.
Still here, yes, it's a discussion board. I like to share my thoughts and high-level analysis.
Do you think I'll exclude myself from buying later? Nope, I'll potentially buy after placing drops AND Turkey news is decent. But don't hold your breath.

LOL, in Turkey.. AME have drilled a few dusters. You better hope it doesn't start snowing again or the uber-ramper will be upset.

Only re-posted as me session on LSE showed all posts deleted. Sorry.

What a bombshell of an RNS:

1) Figures to end of Feb 2021, 135,000 barrels. Why not provide to end of March?

2) 20% to 50% pay cut was a lie.
- Sando 2019 pay = £314k, 2020 pay = £297k. ~5.5% cut
- Howard 2019 pay = £60k, 2020 pay = £54k. ~10% cut
- Kiran M 2019 pay = £116k, 2020 pay = £115k. 0.09% cut
- Taylor 2019 pay = £55k, 2020 pay = £49k. 11% cut
- So it MUST have been the office staff that got hit for th 20% to 50% cut. They did say it was temporary though, maybe just a 2 month cut, followed by a salary increase. Have the BOD given themselves a salary increase, but you won't see the truth now for ages.

3) NPV of HH1 is £4.78. million. How much did they pay for the Tellurian share of 35%!

4) Broadford Bridge. Only mention was that WSCC permitted extention until 31st March 2022. A delaying tactic to offset abandonment costs. BB is 100% UKOG owned, you have to ask the question why they spent so much on HH in buying out partners, when a simple drill at BB could have given them massive revenues. Reason: BB is a dud.

5) Burn rate and placing.
- "During the reporting period net cash outflow from operating activities prior to cash outflows in relation to investing activities was £2.77 million (2019: cash outflow of £5.73 million). The reduced outflow is primarily attributable to lower administration costs."
- If we take that figure as a baseline as the burn rate since Sept 30th, then UK will have spent a further £230k per month, which will take expenditure to £1.6million at end of April.
- "£1.63 million in cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period"
- Cash end of Sept just about covers the costs to end of April.
- £2.2 million raised Oct 2nd for initial drill costs in Turkey.
- Who is paying the wage bill in May?
- The RNS stated "Post period in October 2020 we raised a further £2.2 million to fund our share of initial costs in Turkey." Can they summarise what "initial costs" covers, is that prep work or is it drill, seismic and EWT? Latest RNS says "initial costs" and not "initial drill and seismic" as per Oct 2nd RNS

Summary:
1) UKOG are out of cash, need to place to pay 6 months costs of UK operational overheads. A minimum of £1.6million.
2) Costs since Sept 30th may be higher than the burn rate, they did further work on HH1 and also the costs associated with the Loxley challenge (legal folks dont work for free).
3) Revenues may be lower than that included in the operational cashflow figures as the HH1 well is watering out and the costs of water disposal just add to the overhead of running the site.

My verdict: As I said before, I will wait for hard facts, that RNS gave plenty to pick apart, but for me I am pretty sure that they have already eaten up a good chunk of the £2.2 million raised for Turkey. A placing is due before end of April, mid May absolutely latest. They cannot afford to default on payments to AME or to other suppliers (e.g. BKP).

Good luck to those invested. I'm out!

Wizard,

If you follow the money, then you'll see it go down the plug hole.

The current SP rise from 0.12p to 0.29p is nothing more than market sentiment driven by a pump and dump campaign which is very common to junior oilers.

Keep trying though, you must be delighted to see the value of HH, the operation costs, the burn rate and the hard reality that you are about to get stung for a minimum of £1.6 million in a placing within the next 4 weeks.

As for the placing, 15% discount to the 5 day VWAP is not uncommon. So the SP is going get smashed down by 15% in a blink of an eye. Forward selling to protect the mates though.

Only hope is that they do find oil in Turkey, be interesting to see what AME announce (if they hit oil) as UKOG won't be able to paper over with half truths as they are not the operator. LOL. Poor Sando, must be gutted not to get a bonus. And the FM, Kiran, he must be laughing at the amount of salary he gave up for Covid.

"have you ever danced with the devil in the pale moonlight?"

What a bombshell of an RNS:

1) Figures to end of Feb 2021, 135,000 barrels. Why not provide to end of March?

2) 20% to 50% pay cut was a lie.
- Sando 2019 pay = £314k, 2020 pay = £297k. ~5.5% cut
- Howard 2019 pay = £60k, 2020 pay = £54k. ~10% cut
- Kiran M 2019 pay = £116k, 2020 pay = £115k. 0.09% cut
- Taylor 2019 pay = £55k, 2020 pay = £49k. 11% cut
- So it MUST have been the office staff that got hit for th 20% to 50% cut. They did say it was temporary though, maybe just a 2 month cut, followed by a salary increase. Have the BOD given themselves a salary increase, but you won't see the truth now for ages.

3) NPV of HH1 is £4.78. million. How much did they pay for the Tellurian share of 35%!

4) Broadford Bridge. Only mention was that WSCC permitted extention until 31st March 2022. A delaying tactic to offset abandonment costs. BB is 100% UKOG owned, you have to ask the question why they spent so much on HH in buying out partners, when a simple drill at BB could have given them massive revenues. Reason: BB is a dud.

5) Burn rate and placing.
- "During the reporting period net cash outflow from operating activities prior to cash outflows in relation to investing activities was £2.77 million (2019: cash outflow of £5.73 million). The reduced outflow is primarily attributable to lower administration costs."
- If we take that figure as a baseline as the burn rate since Sept 30th, then UK will have spent a further £230k per month, which will take expenditure to £1.6million at end of April.
- "£1.63 million in cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period"
- Cash end of Sept just about covers the costs to end of April.
- £2.2 million raised Oct 2nd for initial drill costs in Turkey.
- Who is paying the wage bill in May?
- The RNS stated "Post period in October 2020 we raised a further £2.2 million to fund our share of initial costs in Turkey." Can they summarise what "initial costs" covers, is that prep work or is it drill, seismic and EWT? Latest RNS says "initial costs" and not "initial drill and seismic" as per Oct 2nd RNS

Summary:
1) UKOG are out of cash, need to place to pay 6 months costs of UK operational overheads. A minimum of £1.6million.
2) Costs since Sept 30th may be higher than the burn rate, they did further work on HH1 and also the costs associated with the Loxley challenge (legal folks dont work for free).
3) Revenues may be lower than that included in the operational cashflow figures as the HH1 well is watering out and the costs of water disposal just add to the overhead of running the site.

My verdict: As I said before, I will wait for hard facts, that RNS gave plenty to pick apart, but for me I am pretty sure that they have already eaten up a good chunk of the £2.2 million raised for Turkey. A placing is due before end of April, mid May absolutely latest. They cannot afford to default on payments to AME or to other suppliers (e.g. BKP).

Good luck to those invested. I'm out!

Worst Interview imaginable for prospective investors.
Rubbish set of pre-defined questions that Sando set himself.
Useless. Get a proper interview done and answer the proper questions.
That's a paid for bit of PR, terrible effort.

Funding status Sando?
Bonus situation Sando?
HH update Sando?

Nah, just a load of clap trap about Turkey.

Roganjt, yeah but the OGA figures don't lie mate. The water cut is very significant and the decline in oil output is alarming. You cannot argue with the OGA figures!

Those codes are ancient history. Bet the MM's are using WhatsApp nowadays

p.s. Prove me wrong, get 10 rampers on here to place orders for 2100 shares each

But I'm not willing to buy in at this point. This is not driven by hard facts and RNS updates. Its sentiment driven FOMO.

For a Friday, it's a little unusual, so maybe I've missed something. Am expecting to see a late morning sell off as folks take some profit from the 0.24p to 0.29p gap up.

Before anyone says it. "wheels were up on both tankers". So they were there to pickup not drop-off.
One waste (with pipes) and one crude.
How many tankers this week, any idea? Is it just the handful? Hardly great volumes.

Scoobyscraggles.

My opinion, for what it is worth:

1) Turkey provides an opportunity for the MCAP/SP of UKOG to move upwards.
2) The notable risks working against the short-term (2 to 6 weeks) increase in SP; placing (which I do believe will come) and the availability of the AME rig to drill (great to see the pad being prep'd, but when will the rig get there)
3) Continued sell off by existing investors (although I think many of the traders have already taken a profit, there are a good number under-water and maybe waiting for an exit opportunity).
4) I don't do graphs, I think they suck. Some folks are saying this will bounce, others will say it'll drop. The trend over the last 4 days has been downwards, the frenzy that kicked off middle of last week seems to have dissipated. I see the SP drifting to sub 0.2p very soon. Whether it finds support at 0.2p is a big question, or will it sink lower. Much of that depends on news flow.
5) The CEO has been very very quiet. In days past he has been very vocal and keen to show his feathers to PI's and the market. The lack of CEO updates, with occasional Twitter pictures is a concern. Maybe he doesn't want to face the questions relating to placings and timescales. I would assume that he makes some form of appearance by mid-May as the results should have been filed with Companies House by then.

I'll give a view of SP in 2 weeks time, i.e. end of April: Low 0.12p High 0.5p
- my expectation is 0.18p.
- the low figure reflects current drift
- the high figure reflects return of high volume buying with spud nearing

As I've stated before, I'm not into roulette. I'm waiting for hard data and facts to support basic fundamentals. But this is AIM, and it can be a casino if you desire.

I'll not give any advice as to whether you should invest, that is not something I do. All I would say is do the fundamental research, don't listen to others (and that includes me.....).

As I have said many times over the last few weeks:

1) £2.2 million was raised in Oct 2020. Its been 6+ months since then, and UKOG have spent cash at HH in that period.
2) UKOG have delayed filing of annual accounts which would have showed cash position as of end of Sept 2020, it would have also showed burn rate including director remuneration and how much Sando took in pay cut (20% to 50%) and whether Sando also took a bonus.
3) I've done my own calculations and I believe that they are short of cash to pay AME. I expect the payments to be made in instalments (maybe 3 or 4) to cover the work being done. AME have a free carry on drill costs as UKOG are liable for 100% of the costs and then get 50% of the production (if successful).
4) Neither of the last 2 Turkey related RNS's have covered the topic of funding. If UKOG were fully funded, then they would have stated that in the RNS's, they did not, thus read between the lines and you'll likely reach the same conclusion as me.

DYOR, but my firm belief is that a placing is due before end of April, or early May latest. HH has not generated enough cash to cover the shortfalls.

Why do you think I am here?
I'm keeping a watching brief. Just because I'm not invested right now, does not mean that I will exclude myself from a punt (small coins) if I see the right pattern develop in front of me.

I've spent considerable time researching UKOG, did buy in and then sold out soon after. That research is of value to me, right now it's telling me that the future of UKOG in the UK is nothing but stress/cost/failure. If UKOG did not have Turkey then it would already be in the "don't bother drawer".

But UKOG do have Turkey. Risks galore there, but there is potential upside. If I see good news and the right pattern, then I'll be investing. I have no agenda to talk down the SP and trade it on the bounce. I have principles and am not here to see other people lose money on their investments.

I'm pro oil and gas, and pro UK companies. But I am less than impressed with the UKOG CEO, certainly one of the worst I've ever seen.

The frenzy is over. The herd moved on.

SP is dropping like a stone.

The CEO has said nothing in ages, doesn't care about PI's.

I really do hope that LTH'ers get some good news on Turkey soon. Always seems to be the traders that win out.

I did say "beware the spike". Lots been spiked at 0.4p+ now to only be looking at 0.2p to sell. Ouch.

I think LSE should offer other opinion options. I'm thinking "deluded", "clueless", "unresearched" and "herd follower" as good ones. But to balance the books, maybe for me "CEO basher" "Critic" and "Hard earned elsewhere"

How much longer? Its about time that the deal with done and details shared in full.
I see ANGS going on a run, my own target price is 1.5p by end of Oct 2021.

Given that the entire Weald prospect has a very low chance of success with huge cash calls, then I'd say it's value is tiny. The cash calls to develop the Weald and other UK on-shore assets would actually be a negative given the prospect of success at those assets. UKOG could actually be worth more if they withdraw from the UK and focus solely on Turkey. After all, find me a PI who is willing to see their holdings diluted to hell and back on the prospect of an outside chance of success... Its a waste of placing cash, a waste of energy and a waste of confetti.