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JS - if there were such a 'secret clause' it might have a time expiry condition to it.
ALGU - " Now that the full 100% of the GBA is accounted for in farmouts, what's to stop NEO or Serica swooping in and just taking JOG out? They could bid say double the share price to gain a further 20% of the reserves."
JOG directors must surely be aware of that possibility as their own JOG would be at risk of undervaluation.
Would they not have had a 'secret clause' in the NEO and Serrica agreements that no such bid can be made under
SP of £X - where x is a fair value figure.
MC - " I don't think scored is wrong in saying that the price will likely do nothing for years now that the major catalysts have come and gone, and the next one is the drilling. "
FDP approval is still to come and that is a major catalyst.
But if its years - can only be a small number before terrific dividends flow - that could precipitate a TO.
" ..... the skill is in making sure the sp is kept low in the meantime. " -...... if plotting.
From DU's posting of 25 Nov on another matter
ST- BOT
" IC readers will have divested ST lovely write up . "
Should be - " digested " - classic basic, rudimentary, bot mistaken output based on scouring vocabulary found on investment chat sites
Asatara " Oil price went below $20 during covid
Same thing will happen in the next pandemic that they keep telling us will happen soon
What will happen to the JOG price then?" - Eh, eh, that's got yer hasn't it ?
It will crash Asatara - but temporarily.
You just quoted a TRANSIENT event - there is unanimity amongst governments that oil is needed for the next half century during the switch to renewables.
Covid passed as will future pandemics, and the oil price recovered, the but planet's population and its energy needs is incessantly upward.
You are reminiscent of that doom laden character in Dad's Army
Thanks for that Dick - buoyancy recovering
" Of the many justifications offered, Tailwind was said to be oil focused (rather than gas, which
represented the lion's share of SQZ's production) - so the deal brought balance. yeah.........."
When was it ever industry wisdom that it is beneficial that an energy company has to have a 'balance' of gas and oil ?
Perhaps it means a profitable company has an 'imbalance' and must be restored to health ( 'balance') with a large unprofitable/unhealthy deal
Thanks DO and DU for explaining that to me - I suddenly feel less buoyant.
Sorry to hear of your ill health DU.
99icecream - thanks for that.
I'm forgetting they brought their losses with them from a 'previous existence'.
99icecream - " Dont forget that firms without taxable profits wont pay tax. These would include 1. Retained losses 2. Payments for decommissioning. 3. Capitl investment "
JOG will not have/be incurring much of this sort of expense - will they ?
Dusterinmong " Sorry Starmer has said all licences to be honoured that are issued before he is elected.
From: 28TH MAY 2023
THE PRESS & JOURNAL
"Keir Starmer is preparing to block new oil and gas exploration under a Labour government, according to reports branded “pie in the sky” by a north-east business figure.
The row follows claims in the Sunday Times that the UK Labour leader will set out the plan in his net-zero energy policy in Scotland next month.
Labour is said to be considering only borrowing to invest in green enterprises through an energy policy it hopes will create up to half a million jobs in renewables.
Around 50,000 of those jobs would be in Scotland.
Labour would continue to use existing oil and gas wells over the coming decades.
But the suggestion of stopping new exploration was criticised by Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce policy director Ryan Crighton.
He said the industry supporters more than 200,000 jobs and generates £15 billion for the Treasury.
“Pie in the sky strategy drawn up with zero engagement with the industry, or the region, that has been powering the UK for 50 years,” he added.
“But Labour would continue to use existing oil and gas wells over the coming decades and manage them sustainably as we transform the UK into a clean energy superpower.”
The implication is that it is NEW EXPLORATION licences that will be blocked - not something like the GBA project that will be a very long way into the project even if a successful FDP had not been achieved by the time a new Labour government took power.
And Starmer has accepted that oil has a place in his 'green energy' transition
DonkeyOatey - "
DonkeyOatey
Posts: 335
Price: 255.00
No Opinion
HmmToday 11:30
Yes, I think Serica has great assets, but I share DU's concerns about a low ball offer from the new largest shareholder brought in via the reverse takeover."
Do you think AB and other JOG directors, let alone Serica, would accept a low-offer ?
If so, why ?
Icecream99 - thank you for that disussion
99icecream - " At some point they should be talking about moving to the main market, attracting instutional investors and working on new projects - having a value in excess of its stake in GBA."
Would that not mean diverting dividends that might have been coming in our direction into projects that might deliver nothing until we are all in our dotage ?
it
JOG directors hold large numbers of the shares - I cant see any reason they would recommend accepting an offer they
know to be under priced
If they did, the could be laying themselves open to a class action by other shareholders
MarineClarke: I do take your point on swing trading.
Although by inclination, and previous, young at the time - burnt fingers, last year I did just what you are describing.
As I watched North Sea Gas surging I noticed that Wisdom Tree NS Gas Futures ( NGSP) were surging forward then falling back say 10% in a very predictable manner which went on for a couple of weeks - all the while it being obvious to any one that the price of gas was only going to go up - and I think that is the key.
I made a decent amount but then just being an amateur lost about 25% of my gain persisting with the same approach after the SP had ceased to be so predictable.
But the moral was clear - there are periods during which certain shares have a predictable NET ULTIMATE GAIN almost guaranteed - even though there maybe fall backs along the way.
The acid test to get engaged is - does it look pretty certain the SP will go up over a period of time - it looked so with NS Gas and now looks so with JOG.
So having not traded JOG since first invested come a 'big milestone' I might well become a swing trader like yourself.
The field of play between 2nd FO and First Oil does appear to have a degree of predictable stability - famous last words.
So yes - I agree- it does not appear to be so risky as regards ultimate maximum profit by selling out at the occurrence of each big event/milestone for JOG.
Hello MarineClark.
Thank you for your views - with which I agree.
Whatever has gone before is now past and irrelevant.
But for the record - I bought about 9 months ago after reading IC and naively/greedily expecting a quick double/treble-pay-off not appreciating that the SP prediction ( and those of brokers) related to a NON-DEFINED END SITUATION.
So I learnt the hard way, but learnt enough to appreciate JOG is a terrific 3 year ( for me 2023-6) investment.
But may be not continuously invested.
Seems to me that there is bound to be an SP pullback within a couple of days of a 2nd FO announcement no matter what SP is achieved.
Even if the Institutions decide to buy after 2nd FO they wont buy immediately, but wait for the fall back.
i.e. My current thinking is the SP is going to be as good as it can get immediately after 2nd FO announcement and then flag for quite a while before another big milestone is announced.
That dip in SP might last all the way to first oil in 2026 - then big SP followed by big dividends if JOG mot bought out before then.
Hi Marine Clarke,
You say " Which means when farmout 2 is done, this will go up like a helium balloon. Could be any day now,"
Will you sell on Farmout 2 irrespective of the price at that time ?
Thanx DU - include me in - but at my age I'm into Conservation of what I've got ,and will not be imbibing 'Cripple Dick'