Member Info for CUPHALFULL

Would that be the tennis or the golf ?

Serica clearly has confidence in the profitability of future NS projects.

. 'The Labour party has proposed increasing the total tax rate to 78 per cent and removing tax relief on new projects, which it has described as a loophole.'

' NEW ' PROJECTS - Can we nail this term down ? Not existing at present ??

Greener - is that a good or bad sign ?

Re- DU - re politicians present and going forward.

Ms Atkins - absolutely agree - she is ghastly - as though she knows she is way out of her depth, but determined to maintain her personal position, she utters the words that have been scripted for her to maintain her position.

Politicians General: Again I agree ; Ignorance, self -preservation, and malice seems to be the order of the day.

Because I worked for a City company for a long time ( not as a professional finance person) I became interested, reading lots of stuff on City pages, money advice columns, etc, and have done 'reasonably ' on investing

Have done the 'right' things, ISA's, diversification of investments, successful momentum investing ( i.e. reading what's on the move and getting in even when 'up' has been well underway and making profit).

Feel I have done - 'satisfactorily' - maybe very marginally better than that.

Over the same period a friend who inherited some money took the view that he knew nothing about investments and really found it all too confusing and he bought ( for his own 2nd use and investment) a small newly built house on a

development on the Essex coast in what was once a very small industrial area - not particularly fashionable.

He's way ahead of me on profitability, and despite the fact all future governments are going to be getting their claws into 2nd home profits, given the levels of immigration and the impact on house prices - maybe that is the way to go - especially if one opts for a rental income.

Thank you for that information Dick.

I'd take £5.60 as well.

Thanks for the education Dick .

Do JOG, NEO, or Serica, have any other tax allowances they can set off against income other than the Enhanced Investment Allowance ?

The current gloom still leaves some questions one of which is why Neo and Serica went ahead with their Farm-Ins if future prospects were so bad due to government taxation.

The EPL 12 month time extension in the 2024 budget and Labour’s announcement they will extend the rate from 75% to 78% years look like a very MARGINAL further deterioration in prospects for oil companies, and insignificant compared to what came before and very unlikely to change how oil companies view their prospects.

The previous change was the very SIGNIFICANT hike (surcharge 25% to 35%) from 65% to 75% was announced by Hunt in the 2022 Autumn Statement and its lifetime being extended from Dec 2025 until March 2028.

That was a hugely significant negative change AND YET :

Long after that tax regime was put in place, firstly NEO in April 2023, and then SERICA in November 2023 announced their FARM-IN deals with JOG.

Both NEO and SERICA obviously knew what the existing ‘ MAJOR NEGATIVE ‘ tax situation was and the further ‘MINOR NEGATIVE’ change of its extension for another 12 months and Labour prospects of a further 3% hike could hardly have changed the BIG PICTURE for these companies.

So its hard to see why these two companies would duck out of FID having dived into FARM-INS,

since their taxation prospects since have not greatly changed.

ZEUS sticking with a total risked NAV of 616P

Todays JOG RNS seems positive, here's a sample

"Our industry as a whole is engaging with the major political parties and other key stakeholders in more detail than ever before, with a clear narrative on the benefits of backing low carbon, homegrown energy resources. We continue to monitor the political landscape closely and we believe that there is a path forward to unlock the considerable benefits that the GBA project can deliver for the UK economy. "

I know its a bit early but take your lunch break now please - we've got two big lorry loads of stuff coming in at 11.15 and need you available.

Re- DU - Ithaca and ENI

Last months IC carried article saying : -

" Despite regulatory uncertainty due to this years election and the energy profits levy extension , ITHACA and ENI are exploring a deal that would see the Italian energy giant swap its North Sea assets for a 39% stake in ITHACA.

This would further increase ITHACA'S EXPOSURE to North Sea at a time when others are looking elsewhere for growth "

So if ITHACA are positive on NS , they might fancy a tie up if NEO and SERICA dont come up with the investment.

Hello Gengis, re "

Whether as as investors or simply consumers, we should all be more aware that almost all public pressure, in the press and elsewhere, is heavily funded by fossil fuel interests. Those interests use exactly the same tactics as the tobacco companies, of deny, deflect, delay."

Do you own shares in JOG - a fossil fuel company ?

Hello Dick,

You say -

"..........I've mugged up a NPV based on DCF, assuming Labour behaves as stupidly as they probably will because they're stupid (and disingenuous - think of a few more adjectives to describe these socialist cretins). There's a negative NPV for both NEO and SQZ through to 2033."

But to an amateur as I am, the extension of tax on oil companies from 75% to 78% and its new lifetime being extended from 4 years to 5 years looks like a very marginal further deterioration in prospects for oil companies.

Did not the 75% tax rate until 2028 already exist when Neo and Serica decided to hook up with JOG and would they therefore have been satisfied with their own prospects under that tax regime at that stage ?

It's exactly one year to the day that DiveCentre posted the below message - Miracles Do Happen.

" DiveCentre Post: 2,160

Price: 245.00

No Opinion

RE: Commentary 29 Apr 2023 17:34

This is from the Times today:

“Ministers have been urged by MPs, economists and motoring groups to rethink plans to ban the sale of new petrol and diesel cars by 2030.”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ditch-unrealistic-pledge-to-ban-petrol-cars-by-2030-ministers-told-hhgfck8zg

Re: DU & Others,

Dick has demonstrated why NEO and SERICA might go NEGATIVE in FID.

But then surely JOG ( DU is positive) will be liberated from their Farm Out agreements ( surely- basic competent legal advice in the first place for the original Farm Outs) and JOG can seek other partners.

This weeks IC has an article on the North Sea regulator and emissions and possible easing ( JOG is already ahead of all

this debate).

However the article concludes :

" Despite regulatory uncertainty due to this years election and the energy profits levy extension , ITHACA and ENI are exploring a deal that would see the Italian energy giant swap its North Sea assets for a 39% stake in ITHACA.

This would further increase ITHACA'S EXPOSURE to North Sea at a time when others are looking elsewhere for growth "

So if ITHACA are positive , maybe they or others might fancy a tie up if NEO and SERICA get cold feet.

Hello Dick,

Thank you for those 2 links - quite absorbing stuff, particularly as 1 leads into an evidence based debate between opposing scientists.

Thank you again for your views Dick.

Liam Halligan ( a great guy) and you just confirm my view as a recently ( but coming on for a very long time)

ex-Conservative Party member, that the Tory Party is now a Centre-Left Party.

Re: onthe6 - " Dividends after 78% tax. How much would that be? "

If Neo/Jog/Serica think there will be sufficient profit at 78% tax to go ahead with the development, there will be sufficient profit to pay good dividends - and I dont think neo and Serica have come this far to be deterred by another 3%tax, and I think the latest Zeus note says it doesn't have a big impact on anticipated net revenue