Member Info for CUPHALFULL

PC01 - I'm grateful for your view and dont contest it.

But what I asked for was Simon Thompsons current view of the SP performance following his published views of 30/9/22

" In IC dated 30/9/22 at the time JOG SP is 230P Thompson concludes - " The company's share price is is up 18% since I last visited the investment case but could easily double or treble if Jersey hits the bigtime with its Farm Out Discussions - BUY "

As a professional tipster Thompson undoubtedly reads this board but obviously will not respond on it here.

But if we all keep calling into doubt his reticence to offer any explanation as to why the SP is below that of 22/9/22 when he forecast a possible 2 to 3 time SP increase following a successful Farm-Out he might feel some pressure to mention the subject in Investors Chronicle when he next feels he ought to mention JOG.

Well Simon Thompson surely must have an opinion and it would be educational for us all to hear it.

In IC dated 30/9/22 at the time JOG SP is 230P Thompson concludes - " The company's share price is is up 18% since I last visited the investment case but could easily double or treble if Jersey hits the bigtime with its Farm Out Discussions - BUY "

Farm Out Discussions have recently been hugely successful and the SP is down 13%

Simon Thompson - any view from you at all as to what is happening ??

Why should Simon Thompson of IC not venture an opinion of why the SP is so far below his predictions on FO ?

DO - " My preference today is that we would ............."

What would be the way you would go about trying to get your preference put into practise ?

Re JS, DO, & others.

There was a marvelous 60s TV Serial called 'The Power Game' as a sequel to the equally good TV serial 'The Plane Makers@

The splendid Patrick Wymark played the CEO Sir John Wilder, of this aircraft manufacturer going thru dicy times, heavy borrowings, bad cashflow, strikes, rising production costs of planes sold at fixed prices, and promised government support delayed.

He opts to face the strike down and increase bank borrowings, but meets very strong resistance from his fellow directors

citing risk and who plead ' what about the interest of the shareholders'.

In a memorable moment and phrase Wilder barks - " Damn the shareholders, when they buy a share in this Company they are taking a bet on Me "

@Greener101 - " The market reaction to JOGs successes will be disappointing, and that pattern will repeat as it has done for 6 years or more.

Until one day sometime between now and first oil, it won't.

If you stick around you have a massive chance if tripling your money or more."

Thank you for steadying my nerves Greener 101 - I came in about 12 months ago expecting a quick payoff, but for quite a while now thinking that for me, even if it means having to remain in JOG continuously ( to cover TO possibilities) until 2027 ( post First Oil) it will be worth it .

DiveCentre - thank you for your observations.

@ DiveCentre - " ..All of these events will take the project nearer to completion and ought to keep the share price moving in a positive direction. If it has not reached a steady £3 by the end of 2024 I will be disappointed."

DiveCentre, come end of 24 and if after all the events you list the SP is only £3 then I will feel that there is something catastrophically wrong.

When and on what events would you see the SP doing markedly better than £3 ?

Buchananan101 "But the problem is that JOG/AB might decide to retain a sizeable chunk of each years net profit for their expansion aspirations for the company and not distribute as dividends"

'How is that a problem? Dividends v investment should have no effect on the value for a shareholder.'

buchanan101 - I agree, but I was not referring to the Value but to the Dividends which I think I may need in the absence of an SP re-rate in order to make my investment in JOG worthwhile.

Of course retained earnings should reflect in share value but if its clear that they are associated with company aspirations far in the future they're barely going to impact on prevailing SP and could cause selling.

Does the current SP accurately reflect JOG's cash position ?

Taking DU's estimate of £100M p.a. profit before tax - leaving £25M post tax and dividing this by 35M shares gives an EPS of

71.4P - if I have not made some oversimplification error.

But the problem is that JOG/AB might decide to retain a sizeable chunk of each years net profit for their expansion aspirations for the company and not distribute as dividends.

Other peoples views are welcomed.

@ DU _ " What I don't want (and will do my utmost to prevent) is a bunch of people continuing to take substantial rewards for delivering shareholder value that (so far at least) hasn't materialised. "

Hello Dick, what practicable actions do you think are open to shareholders?

DU - " I'm not sure what news we're waiting for. We seem to be in a kind of limbo, with a lot of people who've retained their faith up to now - some for many years - asking: "What's next"?

Its not beyond the realms of imagination that we may now have to wait until the £100M p.a. profit before tax starts coming in before the SP comes good - that is if FID Approval doesn't move it much

DO - Thank you for the interesting feedback following the chat you have had with your boss, and its disappointing that the outcome in this instance was unsuccessful.

I think you must have executed your request poorly, or maybe you had hostile body language - but more thorough preparation before hand might well yield a better result next time.

But the most important thing is not to get too disheartened and get yourself into a negative mindset

@ DO - " you've had to bring on board a team of experienced oil men from the former Ithica to get these farm outs done; "

Most objective people would regard being able to convince such an experienced team to ' come aboard ' as an accomplishment and endorsement of the business case , and them them following through and doing the business through to 2nd FO as confirmation of the CEO's soundness.

JamesSimon - " I would shake his hand and crack open a bottle of champers !"

And you would want a shareholders meeting just for that while simultaneously complaining about management expenses - why not just send him an M & S ' Thank You' notelet with a modest postal order inside.

" Has FEED even started?? " .... " Errrr...................."

Endorse that ' Errr....'

I agree Dick, UK economic outlook looks grim, and its seems the same for most western nations.

Most governments have consistently spent more than they collect in tax.

There's also a presentational device governments employ to try to minimise the perception - Government borrowings are expressed as a % of national GDP - but governments don't have the entire GDP at their disposal - in UK's case only about 40% of it.

Instead of saying UK gov's debt is approaching 100% of annual GDP they should say the debt is approaching 250% of govs annual income ( before borrowing)

@Andy144

I agree government debt is unsustainable - but at some point governments will try to reduce it's value by engineering some big inflation - once achieved they will go back to their old ways of spending more than they raise in taxes.

Buckfastleigh sits as a crossbencher

Dick, Your so mean to our politicians.

These are the most talented of our community, men and women who forego glittering careers in law, finance, commerce, & industry, in order to bring their talents to bear in laser-like focus in improving the lot of their fellow countrymen.