Member Info for CUPHALFULL

MarineClarke: I do take your point on swing trading.

Although by inclination, and previous, young at the time - burnt fingers, last year I did just what you are describing.

As I watched North Sea Gas surging I noticed that Wisdom Tree NS Gas Futures ( NGSP) were surging forward then falling back say 10% in a very predictable manner which went on for a couple of weeks - all the while it being obvious to any one that the price of gas was only going to go up - and I think that is the key.

I made a decent amount but then just being an amateur lost about 25% of my gain persisting with the same approach after the SP had ceased to be so predictable.

But the moral was clear - there are periods during which certain shares have a predictable NET ULTIMATE GAIN almost guaranteed - even though there maybe fall backs along the way.

The acid test to get engaged is - does it look pretty certain the SP will go up over a period of time - it looked so with NS Gas and now looks so with JOG.

So having not traded JOG since first invested come a 'big milestone' I might well become a swing trader like yourself.

The field of play between 2nd FO and First Oil does appear to have a degree of predictable stability - famous last words.

So yes - I agree- it does not appear to be so risky as regards ultimate maximum profit by selling out at the occurrence of each big event/milestone for JOG.

Hello MarineClark.

Thank you for your views - with which I agree.

Whatever has gone before is now past and irrelevant.

But for the record - I bought about 9 months ago after reading IC and naively/greedily expecting a quick double/treble-pay-off not appreciating that the SP prediction ( and those of brokers) related to a NON-DEFINED END SITUATION.

So I learnt the hard way, but learnt enough to appreciate JOG is a terrific 3 year ( for me 2023-6) investment.

But may be not continuously invested.

Seems to me that there is bound to be an SP pullback within a couple of days of a 2nd FO announcement no matter what SP is achieved.

Even if the Institutions decide to buy after 2nd FO they wont buy immediately, but wait for the fall back.

i.e. My current thinking is the SP is going to be as good as it can get immediately after 2nd FO announcement and then flag for quite a while before another big milestone is announced.

That dip in SP might last all the way to first oil in 2026 - then big SP followed by big dividends if JOG mot bought out before then.

Hi Marine Clarke,

You say " Which means when farmout 2 is done, this will go up like a helium balloon. Could be any day now,"

Will you sell on Farmout 2 irrespective of the price at that time ?

Thanx DU - include me in - but at my age I'm into Conservation of what I've got ,and will not be imbibing 'Cripple Dick'

DU - ' Join my vigilante group. Training in the nearby woods. Live target practice (depending on recent weather conditions in the English Channel and capture numbers) on a Friday.'

And singing round the camp fire with buckies in the evenings - where do I enlist ?

Marineclark,

While there might have been a time for trading JOG, that time has surely passed.

My next 'trade' will be my final one, out at circa £6 - £7.

You wouldn't be trying to induce us all to sell now by any chance, would you ?

Hello again Dick, your contributions are really appreciated.

I think you have said more than once - sell AS SOON as price goes up - you were I believe referring to FDP Approval announcement.

Round about 1/8 you posted -

" If I was i/c of JOG, I'd be looking to take the money and run at the first available sensible opportunity post FDP approval in H1 next year. "

Are you still of this opinion ?

RQ -Could it be that JS is some sort of 'prototype bot' that requires more work on it ?

99icecream: Thank you for reminding us all of that - it is very useful as it gives us somewhere to start and some useful

'opinion points/data points' for entry into the big picture as other opinions emerge, along with occasional hard SP fact.

Surety - And around your question to DU other linked considerations e.g It would depend on exactly what SP hits following a 2nd FO being announced ( and then a temporary fall back)

If it's £5 I would be tempted to stay in, if £7 tempted to sell.

What 'milestones' match what hoped for SPs - 2nd FO announcement, FDP approval, First oil, First big dividend, etc

Thanks Dick, CHF

Rollo T - "CHF - The source of AB's comments can be found in the RNS which if read closely is, I believe, more informative than the presentation."

Thank you for that info.

DU - "CHF - the NSTA won't consider approving a FDP if the funds are not in place not only to get to production, but to meet all future licence commitments and - when production ends - leave the field in the same state it was in before any activity began. Anything else? "

You posted earlier - " " Benitz as good as told us this morning how the FO discussions are going when he said: "preparation of the Environmental Statement for the Buchan redevelopment is on-going and it is expected that this will be submitted to the regulator prior to the end of the year, along with the draft FDP."

So my question wass - where can I find this mornings statement from Benitz you have quoted as it doesn't seem to appear in today's JOG Presentation document.

I don't doubt the correctness of your statement.

Good afternoon Dick,

Just ben thru the JOG Nov 23 Presentation with care in which FPSO acquisition is announced.

It also says FDP Plan progressing and Additional Farm-Out transactions ongoing with no mention of anticipated completion dates.

What is the source of your news ? - " Benitz as good as told us this morning how the FO discussions are going when he said: "preparation of the Environmental Statement for the Buchan redevelopment is on-going and it is expected that this will be submitted to the regulator prior to the end of the year, along with the draft FDP."

I had my suspicion that was the case - thank you for confirming it MasterRSI

What does a 'treble-bottom' indicate MasterRSI ?

Thank you MasterRSI - All is clear now.

J.Simon, Keep a grip fella, keep a grip...

JS - from you " There is very few loose shares . "

Even basic grammar seems to be challenging for you.

Been at least 24 hours since JamesSimon has informed us all yet again, in that 'knowledgeable manner' of his , that JOG

is a 'tightly held stock'.

Any one impressed ?