Member Info for CUPHALFULL

My short term craving for a quick buck with JOG morphed long ago into a resigned acceptance that I should stay the long course - as unchanging as it is likely to be for sometime.

Hello Dick- I value your contributions to this board above all others - my lack of response to your postings is because there is little/or nothing to add once you have exhaustively ground the considerations and numbers down - i.e I am a grateful recipient of your efforts but not qualified myself to debate them.

I have been looking at this board I think for 3 months and have copied all your postings since that of 31/05/23 into a separate folder - as I have said previously they are like a masterclass, so please know your contributions are very much appreciated

Thanks for your view Surety.

Surety & Others " The inferred time frame looks good though.... "

While I can find news that Labour is OK with Rosebank ( Greens condemn Labour, etc) I cannot find anything positive Labour has said about Cambo, and it is not comfortable to find Buchan mentioned along with Cambo in the same spirit in an article.

Sunak will hold on as long as possible as UK PM to enhance his CV, his only interest to get on the ' World Stage' with some UN, IMF, World Bank type job - EU Foreign Minister now not available as it wasn't for Blair for other reasons - but these types though rejected/or likely to be, . nowadays refuse to go away.

But North Sea wise, this is a positive.

But, it does require the Tory Party to show the minimum professional political expertise to do this simple thing of hanging on - and there lies the risk.

But lets generously give them the benefit of the doubt - and general election is not until October 24.

What is reasonable to regard probable irrevocable ' Contractual Dates ' for :

JOG - looks like June 24 at this rate

Rosebank ?

Cambo ?

OK Surety - I am also sticking to my decision to buy and hang on to JOG, based on ST recommendation long ago, but I would have liked to have heard from him sooner - even though ' nothing had changed' - but it had - the SP had plunged.

But its water under the bridge.

So I decided to buy IC today dated 11/8 to 17/8, and read ST as mentioned on this board and relax over a pint.

Can you help me please - today I read ST pages in IC dated 11/8- 17/8 in WH Smith and can find no mention of JOG.

Could you please refer me to ST latest upbeat JOG views.

Thanks for that Dick, and I understand you don't want to post too often. However further to your comments..........

1. It'is surprising if all the wimps have not by now been shaken out long ago - I came in at about £2.70 a long time ago and its been very uncomfortable to say the least, might have 'wimped out' but I am not considering selling this side of £5.00.

2. You say " Don't forget to sell on any news (whatever it is and whenever it comes). You know it makes sense."

Surely it makes no sense to sell before FDP approval ?

By that time the scope for manipulation is diminishing, although not absent.

3. And, since it looks like the 'big boys' might be manipulating the SP, if we all just hang on, won't we be the beneficiaries

of huge dividend payments ( and SP rise when that starts), presumably in 2026 ? -.

Surely the Laws of Simple Arithmetic cannot be held at bay forever - if one accepts that the JOG directors are not

crooks - and Simon Thompson in IC way back had mentioned their good pedigree.

Courage Dick, you're the one who normally steadies my nerves.

When this boat comes in you'll be able to buy the Strawberry Fields Farm Shop Buckfastleigh, and change it back to your Happy Eater - eat as much as you want for £1.

Surety, what I said only makes no sense in the manner you have presented it i.e you are implying ST has reiterated his views as though he has consistently confirmed his view throughout the long period between when he last spoke and the announcement of the FPSO development - but throughout that time when the SP tumbled ST was silent

But then a change came with the FPSO announcement and despite the low SP, ST obviously feels more confident in now going public again on his enthusiasm for JOG despite the low SP

Better Late Than Never - but I think there is just too much gratitude ( born of relief) being shown to Simon Thompson right now

When matters had less 'certainty' we could have done with him confirming his convictions as the SP plunged, but he was absent, when it would have been easy for him to say that even the plunging SP was still consistent with his BUY recommendation.

But he didn't - he waited until things looked better before he endorsed his previous advice - while shareholders sweated.

Most news items come from other parties Cyril, including obviously links, but that doesn't detract from the usefulness of someone bringing them to wider attention.

DU - " People will vote them in (turkeys and Christmas come to mind) having been brainwashed into believing that fossil fuels are going to destroy the planet and end mankind, "

I don't think that is so as population is waking up big time to the con being perpetrated by BBC, Sky, Guardian, etc, and that hardship measures are at this stage actually unnecessary for the UK to achieve CO2 Net Zero by 2050 ( even if the UK's tiny performance was relevant to the World's outcome, which is not, as you point out).

But I agree Tories will be chucked out as people will vote on how well off they DONT feel.

That, and 13 years watching the Woke World advance into every aspect of life while Tory governments like May's even encouraged the trends, or at best just pretended they didn't notice it was happening - they just haven't earnt the right not to be chucked out- and I say that desperately not wanting to see a Labour government in power.

But the electorate worm is turning and maybe the politician worm is following :-

Following Tories holding onto to the seat at the Uxbridge bye-election due to voter back-lash against ULEZ extension on 31/8/2023, Starmer has become very concerned that Labour chances in London at the next General Election are being jeopardised.

Khan has accordingly put extreme political pressure on Mayor Khan who has fallen in line and is to introduce new concessions. It looks now as though the £2000 vehicle replacement grant will apply to everyone forced to replace their vehicle, not just those on benefits.

Although ULEZ has a very strong air-pollution justification, it has also been promoted as a CO2 Net Zero 2050 justification with a switch over to ( expensive to buy, expensive to run) electric vehicles.

This does look like the beginning of a voter backlash against UK people being asked to make huge financial sacrifices for 2050 Net-Zero CO2 emissions, when China who emit 29 times as much CO2 as UK, and India who emit 7 times as much CO2 as UK have made it plain they have no intention of trying to achieve CO2 Net Zero emissions by 2050, and the UK emissions are of miniscule relevance to the eventual outcome for the world.

Desperate Tories have sniffed a small window of opportunity to 'show they are different' - but aye, there's their difficulty.

But from small political beginnings massive changes do sometimes occur.

Extract todays Spectator

"Mark Carney’s Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) has signed up over 550 financial institutions to join their net zero asset managers’ initiative, their net zero asset owners alliance, and their net zero banking alliance.

Therefore, finding financial backing to develop those new oil and gas licences may be hard or even impossible. Unless, of course, the purchasers are already large multinational oil and gas companies able to finance themselves. If so, this makes it hard to see how new entrants can join the oil and gas industry. "

China has emitted more CO2 over the past eight years than the UK has since the start of the Industrial Revolution, figures have shown. Between 1750 and 2020, the UK emitted 78 billion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere, compared with China's emissions of 80 billion tonnes since 2013. - Telegraph 7 Nov 2022

This is important as when it is pointed out China annually produces 29 times as much CO2 as the UK, the anti-capitalist environmentalists rush to point out that, nevertheless, Britain has been emitting since we initiated the Industrial Revolution nearly 300 years ago. - but where is the UK government that should be giving these facts maximum publicity instead of just having this country vilified ?

UK government allows the same unbalanced vilification of UK without response regarding slavery.

Thanks EA - thats so helpful in showing UK is not the problem.

I dont know why UK government does not produce this chart as a gigantic billboard and put it up at somewhere like Trafalgar Square of Hyde Park corner.

JS, what with 'windfalls' and finding money down the sofa, you have been advising us for so long of your 'top-ups' that by now your JOG holding must surely have exceeded the 30% threshold obliging you to make a mandatory offer to the rest of us shareholders ?

Alibro, beam in again and bring some measured soothing to this tortured board.

Hi Dick,

" If I was i/c of JOG, I'd be looking to take the money and run at the first available sensible opportunity post FDP approval in H1 next year."

You had calculated that JOG might generate $138M before tax a year when the oil starts flowing - is there a case for hanging in for a couple of years after 2026 - might we not reasonably expect 100+P per share dividends for a few years.

What's the risk as you see it ? - JOG looks OK with Starmer now.

We'll look back on today warmly, and wonder why we didn't sell.

The market in JOG shares seems to be reacting to the Sunak announcement that new E & P licences will be granted and not to have noticed that Starmer had already indicated that companies like JOG who were already far into their project would be allowed to proceed.