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PoC a remedial work programme for KN1 was initially submitted to TPDC at the end of 2018 and they have been waiting approval ever since.... a remediation programme for KN1 is somewhat different from a work programme for the whole of the Nyuni and Kiliwani licence area.

Yes it "could come at any time" - just as it could have done at any point over the last year and more but it hasn't and even if it did, with out the ability to implement it, the approval would, by itself, have little to no impact.... except maybe that subject to the commercials may improve (marginally) the likelihood of closing a JV. Though I suspect that closing the JV might be a dependency for getting the approvals - something of a chicken and egg...?

They certainly have submitted the work programme PoC but there is absolutely no guarantee that even if they receive the approval that they would be in position to complete it.

That said, I am not worried about KN1 remediation not being imminent, the main event is CH1 - and there is no reason to believe that CH1 spud is not still on track.

Ufufuo, yes indeed I totally endorse your suggestion - "I agree that Aminex may now lack the operational capability and may not want to risk spending money on this when the main goal is probably to retain enough cash to get us through to first gas from Ntorya."

Nor indeed still retain the technical knowledge to execute such a remediation and would have to totally outsource the management of the project; they have already suggested they will need a JV partner. Not only for the capital I would suggest.

As you suggest in an earlier post Ufufuo, until they can come up with a definitive "package" including an "operating" partner and commitment to sufficient capital investment the Nyuni license issue is likely to remain unresolved. If it drags on too long I fear that AEX are at risk of losing it altogether....

Yes BG so you keep saying and as I have said I have my suspicions to the contrary. Why have they not published that commercial analysis/ assessment? What are the costs, likely COS and lifetime of KN1 resources under the perforation strategy? The previous BoD's have always been happy to articulate those details, why not now? Yet again I stress what the BoD may say and what is actually deliverable are not necessarily the same. Commercial viability for one "operator" may be very different if you are sharing that revenue between two large "shareholders". Moreover can we agree a JV arrangement for the whole of Kiliwani and Nyuni that also offer an equitable or sensible split of KN1 costs and revenues? There may not be enough in it for both parties to justify the investment for one? There may have to be trade off between AEX retaining sufficient interest in the Kiliwani / Nyuni licenses and giving up claims on future KN1 incomes perhaps?

All up in the air BG but, as Ufufuo says, only time will tell. Needless to say that I will not be holding my breath....

Yes Ufufuo I would broadly agree with that and what you have just highlighted is that Nyuni is a long term venture and KN1 is simply a very small part of a far larger, long term picture and any potential JV partner will see it as such. KN1 is not a significant part of that discussion.

So my, again, in summary, I cannot see a resolution to KN1 remediation in the short term - and maybe, I stress maybe, (dependant on commercial viability) never.

I don't keep any cash in the bank Sang...... it all goes into 4D ;0)

As I said the other day BG if they are to attract a JV partner for KN1 remediation then all these details will be required - so do they have those details? If not then the reason they have no JV partner is obvious. If they do, then why haven't we, the shareholders, seen them? Maybe, just maybe BG because they do not validate the project as a viable commercial JV venture and articulating that fact is not in anyone's best interest.

Okay it has not been around for only a year but for a BIOtech the lead time between R&D and conversion into an income is an extended one so I suggest that if "start-up" is not an appropriate epithet then surely "young" would suffice? In any event, whatever you decide to call it a Bio tech firm with no income generation and no fully developed products is surely not a "low-risk" investment...

Then you miss the point BG - I was illustrating that what a BoD states and what it can actually deliver are not necessarily the same thing... there have to be partners in the market and, so far, we have singularly failed to find one in the same way that SCIR have failed in their attempts.

As regards the JV itself , if you read closely enough BG I am not saying that we will not get a JV partner (I think we will ) but that there is no guarantee that even if we do we will choose to remediate KN1, for a number of possible reasons (ROI being prime amongst them) and that if we do not get one it is questionable that AEX have the capability or the appetite to remediate KN1 themselves. I think we will get a JV partner but the carrot will be KNS and the greater Nyuni potential BUT as these are long term plays there is no obvious urgency to get it done.

Hantsome very few sectors will be immune from such a fall unless they are in sectors considered to be "safe havens". At times of uncertainty and market volatility the default position is that of "risk off" and a flight to low risk sectors and asset classes. A start up Biopharma is far from being a low risk option.

So if you are of the belief that it is total fraud that brought the sale price down to 33p why oh why did you decide to buy in at 36p - have you just worked it out? Did the blatant fraud only begin once you bought in? "dense medical jargon cuts no ice with me, the figures speak for themselves" so why weren't they speaking to you when you bought in? Or maybe you are just one of those "gullible punters"?

You are the total fraud baker and you must be bloody stupid if you think that people cannot see through your hogwash....

No BG and SCIR is still telling shareholders that they are looking to sell their 25% and how long have they been trying to find a buyer at the right price? I am not saying that the AEX BoD have given up on the idea but that does not mean that finding a JV partner is a given - for a multitude of reasons. And it is questionable whether AEX now have the appetite or the capability of executing KN1 remediation themselves.

Lol, no Poebus use of the word "speedily" was meant to be a somewhat tongue in cheek.. ;0)

Haggis, AEX BoD have already stated a couple of things that are relevant for KN1. Firstly that they will need a JV partner to develop Kiliwani and that they no longer see themselves as an "operator"... I suppose the two things are directly linked. So I am sceptical that we will see them doing anything on KN1 without first completing a JV partnership. But as you may have read I am not sure that there is a commercial case for remediation of KN1 under a JV - yes the new perforation strategy may well make it commercially viable but we haven't seen any costings, COS, lifetime of well or anything else associated with this new strategy and nor how a JV would be structured or how any share of any future income streams would be divided; is there sufficient ROI for a JV partner whilst sharing income with AEX?

I am not saying there is no JV solution that would work for KN1 but I am not convinced. Some here have been telling us that as soon as the invoice issues had been resolved we would immediately see a JV agreement signed and KN1 remediated, however we have not yet seen that and I wonder whether there are some structural issues (such as the commercial viability of a JV) that are stopping that happening. I would agree that it in AEX and TPDC interests for this to occuir, so why hasn't it happened?

I think KN1 might be a dead duck and any JV will move speedily on to KNS.....

Because when volumes are low the only way that the MMs make any money is by using the full spread available to them- particularly for low value trades.

Yes BF and PoC has been anticipating the news for about a year now. He will be reminding us that we should expect the phase 1 seismic results soon - but then he said that we should expect them before Christmas; unfortunately that has long since passed and we are only now about to start the work......

And we might not...

Evening all, sotry been somewhat preoccupied with the day job. And yes BG if you read my last post on the subject I volunteered tha suggestion that the new "perforation" strategy may have supercede the original assumptions but we have never yet seen the costings nor the COS of this strategy nor the estimates for the volume / lifetime of gas likely to be recoverable from it To attract a JV partner for this venture thesed etails would surely be part of that JY negotiation? I think the company's inabilty or unwillingness (which is it?) to articulate that detail is potwbtially a significant reason why, to date, they have not been able to conclude a deal.

Some here were suggesting that the only thing holding ia JV up was the conclusion of the lack of resolution on the outstanding invoices but that has now long since been put to bed. Which only goes to suggest that their suggestion was a short sighted or over simplistic assumption based on a selective interpretation of the the evidence.

Goodnight all and good luck.

Morning CP. As regards Kiliwani and Nyuni, as I was suggesting a week or so ago, the commercial case for remediating KN1 is not a strong one (according to JB) and that even as the prime "shareholder" in the license; so I am not sure that the economics would work if any income was further diluted between AEX and a JV partner? Consequently I would not be surprised to see KN1 "shelved" and any JV move straight on to KNS. That would be good news but some way off in terms of income generation and of course result in a major dilution of our license; some will say that a small slice of any future income is better than the none we have today but I could not help but mourn the loss of our operator status on Nyuni. That said, if we do not hurry up and get something done we are at risk of losing the license in its entirety at some future date - the TPDC will not allow us to retain the license without seeing some progress on a future work programme....