Member Info for CrustyPete

And CP you could argue that the "approvals" might well be dependent on the M&A.....? Little point approving a work programme if the incumbent operator has no capability of executing it....? As BG himself suggested yesterday after fecking up KN1 (and NT2) originally, do the AEX BoD have any credibility with Tanz authorities? Yes the BoD has changed (for the better?) but at least we once had a COO and a technical team.

And yes quite possibly that is why it is taking so long - and maybe, just maybe, because they cannot find a compliant / suitable JV partner; one reason for that could be because the "commercials" for KN1 just do not stack up for a JV partner.

You only see what you want to see PoC.

So you don't think that being the Chief Executive Officer of ARA Petroleum LLC or Partner at Gemini Oil and Gas is likely to be a significant commitment? Moreover NED's simply have to stick to a stipulated commitment sufficient to, as you yourself have pointed out, for "oversight" of the company NOT for day to day management or for any executive function... do you think that managing the KN1 remediation would be "oversight"?! Of course you do because you can only see what suits your agenda PoC.

Nice try PoC but no banana :0)

Good night all.

Really PoC? Then it will be about the first thing you have seen through.

Have a look at this: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/non-executive-director.asp maybe

I recognise that the words might be a bit too difficult and some of the concepts rather complex for you but I am sure that you will get the jist of it.... keep trying PoC ;0)

You really do exist on another planet - wake up and have a look at the real world PoC.....

An Executive Chairman and a group of non-executive directors..... and you think they will be managing the remediation project?!

We have 4 non executive directors on our Board of Directors, all experts in their field and just as well qualified those you have detailed below, the point being, that non of them do more than 1 or 2 days a month; largely because they all have alternative "day jobs"

"Though like you I still think it more likely to get a farm down of the Nyuni/ Kilwani licence, passing of operational control to the third party, after which future sequencing and prioritisation of projects will no longer be in AEX's control."

And as previously stated and for what it is worth - much to my disappointment. I do not think a "portfolio Oil & Gas investment company" is the way forward - just look at Solo/Scir - and is certainly not something that I will want a long(er) term holding in.

Morning CP, I agree and have said pretty much the same thing - however PoC tells us all that it will all be outsourced and that AEX don't actually need to do anything...... and PoC is the font of all knowledge ;0)

So, limited cash, no expertise, no resource, a stated intention of not wishing to be "operator", a stated need for a JV partner and a risk of remediation failing.... but despite this AEX are going it alone to remediate KN1 and moreover at some point very soon.

If the above were to happen it could surely only be post CH1 and after a fund raise; without a fund raise we cannot remediate KN1 and risk it failing, because then we would have to raise further funds just to get us through to production and what would be the justification? Better to wait until CH1 and then raise funds for remediation.

Though like you I still think it more likely to get a farm down of the Nyuni/ Kilwani licence, passing of operational control to the third party, after which future sequencing and prioritisation of projects will no longer be in AEX's control.

No BG, sorry, I have previously reported back on a number of things articulated at the AGM's only to have my sincerity and honesty questioned (ironically, reporting that the approvals being necessary for KN1 remediation to be started, being one of them) - so I will leave it to others; there are several others who were there that might be willing and able to explain it but as I "don't have a clue", I suggest that, if not, you go and ask PoC, after all he/she knows everything and everything that they have predicted to date has been totally accurate ;0)

Save to say that based upon previous KN1 reports my view is that the perforation strategy is NOT nailed on and I am therefore, unlike you, not expecting to see any progress on KN1 in the immediate future; for reasons previously described. Perhaps you can tell us exactly how quickly we should expect it to happen? Before CH1 drill I presume? Just to be clear, because if not, I do not perceive post CH1 KN1 remediation "soon"....

In the meantime I will leave you to your suspicions BG and get on with "giving myself some peace".... ;0)

"My suspicion is......".

Well that'll do it then BG - it is a slam dunk. The KN1 remediation strategy and the reasons for not drilling below the impermeable layer was explained by Aaron Le Blanc at the AGM but hey, I am sure that your knowledge of the KN1 situation and experience is far superior to his ;0)

As for their reputation being damaged by the KN1 drill and outcome? I am sure it was a contributor (certainly for shareholders) but in my view it was far more damaged by their performance with NT2..... after that near disaster could the TPDC risk leaving AEX as operators of such a valuable and potentially strategic a project?

CP, were you at the Aminex AGM's of 2017 (Dublin) & 18 (London)? If so, you will remember why it was that the original drill did not perforate any lower than they did? And hence why perforation of that lower zone is not guaranteed to succeed? I remember very clearly but, as PoC self evidently knows far more than I do, I will leave it someone else to explain it to him. In the meantime I will leave him to his disdainful complacency.... ;0)

Even if they have enough cash to complete the work programme can they afford to risk spending it and it not succeeding....?

Have a great weekend all.

And do you perchance even have a clue why the original drill did not choose to perforate any lower?

If not I suggest you make an effort to find out PoC.... when you find out you might realise why this is not nailed on.

So PoC you have nothing to say about the water ingress? And so to conclude, you will categorically state that there are no risk of the perforation strategy failing then, yes?

BG you are quite right is assuming that I do not take everything that the AEX BoD (or any others) states to shareholders is "gospel" no and I suggest it would be sheer complacency to do so - you only have to look back over the past 10+ years for evidence of that. Where you are wrong BG is in that I am perfectly happy with my current AEX situation - we are in a better situation than we have been for several years, though with some way yet to go....

Yes KN1 contains 31BCF - so too did it before it failed.... but in your view nothing can possibly go wrong?

Do you actually know why the upper reservoir failed? Do you understand the history and nature of the water ingress into the reservoir? Can you guarantee that similar problems will not be encountered in the lower reservoir?

Remediation through re-perforation is NOT guaranteed to succeed.... therefore the concept of a "COS" is perfectly valid.

Of course the actual work will be outsourced just as drilling and seismics have in the past but someone at AEX has to set the parameters and scope of the project; at least all the time that AEX are the operator...

So now you are actually saying that the reperforation is guaranteed to succeed?! Totally disingenuous and, frankly, laughable....

Whatever the cost BG it is only money worth spending if it is justified by the ROI and the COS and if it is money you can afford to lose..... and to date the BoD have failed to communicate any of those variables to the shareholders and until after CH1 spud we cannot know when or how we can replace the expenditure.

Well on the "money to do it" point I am less in agreement - to Ufufuo's point earlier today, even with the invoice money that they now have; "I agree that Aminex may now lack the operational capability and may not want to risk spending money on this when the main goal is probably to retain enough cash to get us through to first gas from Ntorya."

I remain unconvinced that AEX will spend this money on KN1 and will rely on a JV partner for technical knowhow, resource and the investment capital. Either that or wait until after CH1 spud when the Market Cap will support a fund raise. and even then they will need to outsource the project to a competent partner - there is no-one left at AEX capable of implementing it.

" It was a big thing to get the money." absolutely it was but less so because AEX needed the money to be able to complete the remediation programme and more because no-one is going to invest in a joint venture if they cannot be confident of getting their invoices paid......

And with that I have to say goodbye - at least for now :0)

Which were received some months ago.... and even then only part payment. But that is of minimal value in the context of KN1 without the approval and the ability to complete the work programme. And of course granting of the "approval" was in no way contingent on payment of the invoices - that has always been in the gift of the Tanzanian authorities.

When I will get my money back...? ;0)

Anyway off for an early weekend!

gla