Member Info for CrustyPete

Tanzania, you and I have both been here a very long time so no chance in "losing belief" on my part at this late stage. That said, I remain cautious about the levels to which some are suggesting the sp will rise to over the Spud period and, of course, the timescales for us to get there. There have been some gloriously over optimitic predictions about sp's and the timing of events & news in the last 12 - 18 months and I do not need to remind you of the number of times in the past when similar predictions have been made to look totally ridiculous.

Morning Tanzania.

I would agree with you entirely; onshore much more cost effective and lower risk than offshore. For what it is worth and I am fully aware that things may well have changed recently, the cost effectiveness and speed to market for onshore gas was the justification behind the Tanzanian Authorities original view that they would ringfence onshore Gas for Domestic consumption, thereby providing very cheap energy to domestic industry to kick start growth and wealth creation. It had previosuly been antiicipated that exported gas would be sourced from the offshore fields where the increased costs and risk could be offset by selling it at a far higher price. That strategy may now have been reversed because of the global supply shortages, the fantastic price for gas on world markets and the fact that offshore gas and LPG will not be widely available for years. Who knows?!

That said Tanzania, can we assume that those circumstances will still exist by 2024+? Buggered if I know! ;0)

I am not suggesting that they are doing nothing Porky, more that they may have very few options available to them or they can exercise no control on many of those things you cited as "musts".

There is still time to do so Muck and, yes, with hindsight it might have made sense to have done so in better market conditions and when the sp was higher; that said when has there been any proice stability recently? They may still be waiting for those conditions to improve. Getting a placing away when the sp and the market sentiment for Biotechs is in freefall will not be that easy.

I have been buying on the "dips" but have been constantly disappointed that there always seems to be lower dip just a few days away! hence I am now keeping my powder dry for more news or a new bottom.

@Porky, you say - "Lets face it IF they didnt do a placing 1/4 in line with the Oxford Finance requirement, they must know that either a) a milestone, licensing or some other revenue creating event is about to land b)are extending loan finance in some otherway or c)know that a T/O is guaranteed and on the horizon."

Any one of those things MAY be true but there is certainly no "must" about it. There are an equal number of alternative possibilities not least of which may be that they have no immediate financing options or imminent developments and the reason we have heard nothing from them is because they have nothing to say.... the current market malaise would suggest that is what the market fears and just because you say otherwise does NOT make it so. To state what you have as a fact is totally disingenuous.

Well mcdoughnut what makes you think that your analysis is any better than anyone else's? As it happens I do exactly the same as you mcdoughnut, I analyse and give an opinion and I would suggest that if the evidence of the last 12 months or so is anything to go by my analysis and comments would have proven to be far closer to the mark than yours.... you must have been telling us for 12 months that we should be piling in to AEX in the expectation of seeing 1.5p but here we are still waiting; whereas I have been saying that there is no hurry, that people could wait until Q1 or Q2 of this year and buy it for about the same price as it was 12 months ago - and here we are. Thankfully I trust my own judgement and don't need yours.

I have responded to questions about such things as my opinion on the sp, in the same way as you have - I do not give a two hoots what people think of my opinion but I have as much of a right to express it as you do. As for your concern about my possible motives mcdoughnut, if you had spent bothered to read any of my posts you would know the answer but then you only look for those posts and opinions that support your own confirmation bias don't you?

How many times have I said over the last 12 months that I think the sp will rise but not until closer to the CH1 spud? More times than you could count mcdoughnut but then it is easier for you to overlook that isn't it. I am not trying to talk anything down but I certainly aim to offer a counterpoint to the hyperbolic fantasy that often gets posted here.

"but the right investment choice IMVHO is to load up now, at the bottom" yes we know that is your opinion mcdoughnut, you have been telling us the same thing for 12 months - thank goodness most people chose to ignore you and put their money to better use over that period.

"due to resource upgrade after Seismic".... there you go mcdoughnut counting chickens yet again.. it will have to be one hell of a resource upgrade to have a significant and lasting impact on the sp. So perhaps you can tell us what we should be expecting?

Compared to Wentworth? No. WEN are a producing Operator, we are neither of those two things.

Even when we start receieving and income (two years away?) we may be but even then we are not the operator and therefore not "in-charge" of the asset.

Moreover Tanzania I rather hope we are NOT compared to WEN - they are a producing operator and yet still only have a market cap of £38m - we should be looking many multiples of that by the time we are producing ;0)

Tanzania. To your first point and for the third time NO, I do not believe it will reach 10p - though I recognise anything might happen.

Apologies but I am not sure what you are asking in your second point. Could you please rephrase? What is unlikely?

No BG, they simply saw an opportunity to extort more money from AEX and AEX had no option but to capitulate. Whatever calculation the Tanzanian Govt may have made was totally specious - AEX made absolutely no gain on that transaction; they spent far more than they received - credit or not.

Oh and mcdonut why would I pay 0.85p when I can now buy it at 0.80p and, who knows maybe at 0.75p tomorrow? But I am certainly bloody glad I wasn't buying it at above 1p when you and others were telling us that it was soon going to hit 1.5p!! Lol.

Keep up the ramping haggis you might be right one day!

"its called investing Crusty"....

For goodness sake BG, yes it is called investing, I have been doing it for decades. However the original point in question BG is whether the MC is a reflection of the "carry" or the "assets" - or had you forgetten that?!?!?

Have a look at my last post - the value of ALL of AEX's exploration assets = $38m - where oh where on the balance sheet do you see a value attributed to the "carry".... the answer BG, NOWHERE.

Answer CP??
Total exploaration assets (Ntorya & Kilwani) $38m..... value of $35m "carry"? $NIL

Once the cash has been spent CP it is no longer on the balance sheet - it is replaced by the value of the asset that it has been sunk into. In AEX's case that $35m of credit never even went onto the balance sheet. What is AEX's 25% Ntorya asset valued at on the balance sheet?

But GL that was when we had 75%, were the "owner operator", plans for back to back drills, income from KN1 and plenty of money in the bank.... we were also starting from a much higher base; 6 months before the drill the sp (at its lowest) was circa 1.4p so a move to 7.8p plus represented a 550% rise over 6 months. Well we are now circa 6 months from the drill and the sp is 0.825 a similar 550% rise would take us to circa 4.5p.

You are of course right, anything can happen but I cannot see us reaching 10p in all honesty.

BG "if SCIR just happend to come by $35m then that is worth $35m, now if they dicided to invest that money in say developing a gas field then that value has not disapeared".

I totally disagree BG, that $35m is then only worth what it eventually produces and until the drill results in "income" its value has disappeared; it has been committed to a specific project and until that project pays off the cash has gone and therefore is worth nothing. It cannot be diverted to anything else.

AEX currently owns 25% of a potentially lucrative Gas Field but, if it ran out of money tomorrow, it couldn't use that 25% to pay the bills, it would have to convert it into cash (sale or farm-out)- in exactly the pickle that SCIR is currently in - and yet SCIR have singularly failed to convert that into cash in over two years..... If they has $35m in the bank they have choice to spend it where ever they decide. That is the difference - choice.

Morning all.

Tanzania, I would certainly agree that I do expect the CH1 drill to confirm that we have a large and valuable gas find, yes. Do I think that we will see 10p during the drill or on the drill results? No, honestly, I do not and not in any climate.... I hope to be wrong but I would be very (pleasantly) surprised if that were to happen.

Tanzania, you say "All very slow going right now as we all knew it was going to be..." well as some of us knew it would be ;0) Others would have us believe that we should have expected seismic results before Xmas 2021.

For what it is worth I do expect there to be validation of a prospective Oil reserve but, and it is a big "but", not necessarily a commercially viable Oil reserve.

Will it get to 10p over the CH1 spud? Not in my view and even if we do it will be very short lived.

Yes Jetty so our 25% is worth something and SCIR's 25% is worth nothing. Having the free carry means that our 25% is rsik free whereas SCIR's 25% is not. The carry has no intrinsic value but without that carry the underlying asset has no value at all.....

I would suggest that the figure for SCIR is severely affected by the risk that because they have insufficient capital to service their Ntorya obligations they may lose their 25% or be forced into a firesale at a deeply discounted price.

Jetty you say " I am sure there are plenty watching AEX and thinking they have loads of time and waiting to jump in". Well to be honest there have been plenty on this board who have been strongly advocating people jump on board for the fear of missing out on an imminent "wall of news" and the resultant multibag sp rise, LOL! But 12 months has elapsed and we are still waiting - patiently.

Those speculating on an sp rise on the back of the CH1 spud will probably be rewarded but I still think they have a few months yet before jumping in with both feet and even if the miss out on 0.20 - 0.70p they wont be worrying too much about it methinks; there will still be some good mileage in it withoiut having to tie up funds for months and months with the resultant lost opportunity cost.

HI Jetty, I totally understand your logic and, in part, agree with it, though with one or two caveats. Firstly I would suggest that the current MC does currently reflcet some value of the underlying assets but nothinjg of the "free carry" since that "free carry" is already committed and is likely to be "zero" by the time it is conversted into "income". Indeed there is no guarantee that it will ever be converted into income.... This is the principle reason taht I have always stated that $35m of carry is worth anything remotely close to $35m of cash. As you suggest the current impact of circa $500m of gas reserves is hardly reflected in the current MC; so even if that reserves figure increases markedly it is highly unlikley to have a significant impact on the MC! If $500m of reserves equates to a £35m MC an increase of 30 -50% in reserves will only increase the MC pro rata. So a 50% increase will result in teh sp moving to what 1.2p!! Wow fecking wee!

No, the thing that will cause a fundamental shift in valuation is when the P2 reserves becomes P2 resources and that requires a GSA, pipeline and imminent and obvious route to market. Something incidentally that will not happen for any Oil finds for a very long time yet. So any Oil find , even if it is a "commercial" Oil find, will not transpose into a significant and (most importantly) sustainable rerate for some time yet.

That said, we will see if significant sp rise in the run-up to spudding due to the "hot money" that will inevitably flow into AEX at that time but, bigger question, how much of any rerate will last?

Only time will tell methinks.