Member Info for CrustyPete

Not quite CT; I think you will find that it is an Appraisal well for the Cretaceous and an Exploration well for the Jurassic. It was an Appraisal well when it was NT3 but became an Exploration well once it became CH1 (Chickumbi) due to the fact that the Jurassic has never been drilled before.

@grrshaw.

Broadly I am now far more happy with the state of affairs than prior to the AGM but possibly for different reasons than you might imagine. My principal concern was with the apparent "non-operating" strategy that has been adopted over the last 2 years as I did not see that as likely to tick ARA/Eclipses boxes as a cornerstone investor of AEX and if they were no longer an investor in AEX there was (to my mind) always the risk that they may choose to "cash-in their chips" and I did not see that as likely to be in the remaining shareholders interests in the short or (if there was one) long term. For reasons explained in my summary I now have sufficient confidence that neither of those things are likely. I believe we will remain as "operators" of Kiliwani even if we have to wait until after "production" is reached on Ntorya to retsart any meaningful development. I also have comfort that ARA will stick with us for the duration of that journey.

As for the timescales, yes, I see no obvious resaon why CH1 drilling cannot be commenced in November and even if they run a few weeks late, December will do. As regards the seismics? If they start soon we should get to see full results by early Q4 at the latest but even a snall delay on those should not be too concerning.

I like the fact that they are expecting good seismics results (though remain sceptical on their likely impact on sp - but then I don't much care about that anyway), I like that they are confident about the expectation of stong shows of "liquids" (condensate) in the CH1 and subsequent drills, I am positive about the likely drilling of two more wells between CH1 and production and I am reasonably happy that there should be no drift in teh Q4 2024 date for production (subject to the below). So all good here.

If there is one area of uncertainty it is about the timing and content of any GSA negotiations. Our Kili GSA is for sale of gas at the "well head", which if applied to Ntorya is a double edged sword; easy and convenient, with the responsibility for pipeline build and costs being that of TPDC but the downside being that we are reliant on them for completion (and we have all been adversely affected by Tanzanian Authorities delay in delivery at every level) and we will not be able to sell straight to industry or to GPP hence reducing our potential margin.

On balance though I am very comfortable with the current position and will continue to buy as cash flow and "dips" allow between here and CH1 spud..

@vike1 , yes late Q3 - early Q4
@HonestTom - no I have been in email dialogue with Drewky but for personal reasosn he was unable to make it.

I have to say that it is new to me but you have obvioulsy read it from to cover to cover mcdoughnut.... why bother trusting to facts and logic when you can just make it up eh? But then of course facts and logic won't actually count for much if, like you, you don't understand the difference between volume and pressure and how they effect production, eh? Never mind mcdoughnut, you'll catch up one day ;0)

So mcdoughnut show me the "logic" that equates the rate of production to an increase in underlying resources... There is NONE!

Here we go again. Yes mcdoughnut the "high case" scenario says 250 not 140 that of course is possible but, if you read my post again I state that the "best case" scenarion - which is what they are anticipating - is NOT affected simply by increased resources..... the volume of the resources in not the factor that will determine the rate of production as you were trying to imply.

"And to add to that is the GIIP in the Jurassic, which will be targeted by the same wells. Thus gas could be produced from BOTH zones at the same time, possibly doubling production."

So to make it very simple for you mcdougnut, you cannot get more gas out of the same well unless an increase inpressure forces more of it to the top - doubling the size of the underlying resource will not increase the rate of production but the duration, unless there is also an increase in the underlying pressure - and the two things are not necessarily related.

But now that has been pointed out to you you look to deflect that by blaming the messenger. Ar53 'ole.

Anyway one and all I am off on my hols. I will leave you all to your thoughts.

BG, CH1a and CH1b are both due to be testing Jurrasic (hence the name Chickumbi (CH) as apposed Ntorya (NT) ) but are posiitoned to test Lobe 2 (CH1a) and Lobe 3 (CH1b) - as I understand it. Technicalities not my forte I am sorry to say ;0)

Oh very quickly for haggis's benefit: "140 MMcf/d" is a "best case scenario" and assumes all 8 wells will be drilled successfully and put into production. An increase in the Gas reserves will not necessarily increase poroduction without first drilling more wells.

So, "There is clearly huge scope in that to produce gas at a much higher rate." The rate of gas production would depend upon gas pressure not the volume of gas.

we will have to wait until "production" from Ntorya.
- Can we afford to wait until then? Yes we could but the TPDC will expect AEX to report of operational progress on Kiliwani annually; the ORCA seismic developments tick a box for 2022 - the question is what can we point to in 2023 and 2024? I am assured this could be covered.
- Hence and despite what it says in the presentation it is possible for AEX to remain "operator" of Kilwani
- I asked Sultan Al-Ghaithi directly if Eclipse / ARA were happy with the prospect of AEX being a non-operating "portfolio investment company" and he declared they they would prefer AEX to remain an operator (no ****3 shelock) and AEX becoming non operating was NOT consistent with their original intentions when buying into AEX.
- Despite this ARA are fully committed to supporting AEX and the other JV partners and are very focused on their reputation within the market
- The Board conceded that "Pivoting towards a non-operating strategy" was not a positive strategy decision but simply recognition that with the current cash constraints AEX cannot realistically do anything else.
- If AEX can find the money over the coming years to develope Kiliwani ourselves and remain "operator", they would prefer to do so and so would ARA/ Eclipse
- TW conceded in conversation that the AEX Board recognised that they dropped the ball post NT2 drill and did not go to the market for Capital at that point - he believes they could have raised significant sums at circa 4p post drill but that they never believed it would take so long to get NT3 (what became CH1) drilled or to get the Kiliwani invoices paid


Anyway one and all, I am officially on holiday and will soon be travelling. If there are any further questions I will attempt to answer them at some point.

And please, please no impugning my integrity (as has happened before) by suggesting that anything that I have reported here is pure make belive - this is an honest and comprehensive account of events to the best of my recollection. If anyone suggests otherwise then it will be the last comment i will make on the subject of this or any future AGM. Next time you will have turn up and hear it yourself.

Morning all,

Yes I did attend the AGM yesterday; one of only 6 shareholders to attend - what a disgrace :-(

Well, perhaps I can answer this and some other questions as part of a summary. Please look at yesterday's presentation for reference.

- The 3D seismics have not yet started but are "imminent" - (brave last words eh?!)
- The Board are extremely optimistic about the possible results and have suggested that they believe they will act as a sp catalyst
- The positive expectations for the seismics and the "pipeline" of activity over the next 2 years until Q4 2024 was what enabled the board to raise £4 at the last capital raise.
- The timescales for production in Q4 2024 are easily achievable and are likely include two new drills after CH1 and before production.
- It is expected that NT2 will be brought back on stream through re-entry, though maybe not NT1. (NT2 has considerable upside potential, NT1 not so.)
- Negotiation of GSA planned for completion by Q3 2023, though any timeframe difficult to predict with great accuracy
- The outcome of the GSA discussion will determine such things as whether the gas will be bought "at wellhead" or whether we pipe it to Mtwara and / or sell it direct to market; this discussion will determine the price and who will be buidling the "pipeline"
- If we sell gas "at wellhead" then we will be reliant on TPDC for pipeline build cost and the timing thereof
- The Board would like to be able to sell gas direct to maret (e.g. Dangote etc) but cannot dictate this - it will be GSA dependent
- Good news is that they expect to get a lot of "condensate" from existing and any future drills; this would necessitate them building facilities "in situ" to be able to capture and collect this condensate but this is extremely profitable and they would expect to be able to sell it to anyone.
- It is anticipated that all onshore gas will be used for domestic market as there are no LPG faciliaties due anytime soon - the closest option is to piggy back on the LPG facilities in Mozambique (when they are clomplete) but that would require piping the gas to Mozambique and not something that is likely to happen in the short term

All of the above very good news but here are some realities.

- There is NO CHANCE of remediating KN1 (no ****3 sherlock) - the compartment that they have drilled has little remaining gas and no pressure; this will NOT be resolved by re-perforation and compression
- Because of the above they have no chance of getting a JV partner!
- The seismics that they receive from the ORCA tie up are very valuable ($2m) and are expected to prove where they should next be drilling - i.e. a spur from KN1 or a brand new wellor perhaps both.
- Either of the above will cost more money than AEX have and which will require either a JV partner, a large capital raise or

Breakout? Maybe - but up ,or down is the question... ;0)

You need to contact whoever it is that acts as your Nominee. Platform, Broker, Bank etc In my case that is Interactive Investor and HSBC

Good morning Tanz; message received and understood.

As for your 10p claim "surely we have every chance of making such a value ?", well, yes, there is a chance but not "every" chance methinks, after all in my view there is a very good chance that it won't! 10p would equate to a market cap of over £410m. In my view, no matter what the seismic results confirm, I cannot see any likelihood of reaching that MC before we acquire P2 resources status and, more likely, production.

That said, I very much hope you are right Tanz and I am wrong.

Hello Rojo,
you would be more than welcome to join us Rojo. Particulalry if you wear that fantastic headdress ;0)

Tanzania, I have emailed Andrew so I do hope he gets it and responds.

"naive" SR, I think not, certainly not naive enough to be taken in by some of the ramptastic pollocks that gets spouted on this BB by some; but even so, there is a bloody huge difference between "leakage" and diseminating market sensitive information via a presentation for goodness sake. Besides which why oh why would it be in anyone's interest to divulge such information through a medium such as ATS rather than officially via an RNS?

Similar GL, I am due to be travelling to France that day but have chosen to defer by 24 hours to accomodate the AGM.

No you don't isas ; they are not allowed to distribute price sensitive information before releasing it to the market via an RNS.

The venue details Tanzania? For the AGM or the lunch? AGM below.

11.00 am on 26 May 2022 at The Wellington Hotel, 71 Vincent Square, London SW1P 2PA.

Incidentally one and all - who of our posters intend going to the AGM on the 26th?

Any of those reading that have my email address, let me know. In the past the AGM's have largely been in the afternoon but this year it is at 11:00. I have a table booked for lunch at a local haunt for 2.00. If you want me to add you to the party let me know?

Jetty, CP, BD, Drewky, PJ, Gaslady...?

How about you Tanzania?