Member Info for CrustyPete

Happydazes you say "The independent lab report will almost certainly have been done by now."

That presupposes that the samples and data were ever sent off in the first place and, if you trawl through the interviews since February they have never confirmed that it has, indeed the contrary they have inferred that it was still awaiting dispatch. I would be amazed if it was ever sent.

Why? Because EWT trumps anything that Itumbula drill would have provided.

Goldwater I have explained the situation as I see it twice now - if you don't have the capacity to understand what I am posting then that is your problem - there is no point my posting it yet again.

But you are NOT going to see a Lab Report from the Itumbula1 drill - end of story, so just stop bleating on about it. The only game in town is now the EWT. The Itumbula Drill is history - it is now about the next step. It's really easy to understand if you are prepared to listen; evidently not.

Ha, some reversal! As I said last night not everyone is as confident that this will "bounce". Need to see further evaluation and flow rates before we even know io this company has a future. It has just sunk a load of money in a failed drill - what is the next step? They will now have great difficulty raising further funds for another attempt at increasing production from Erfelden. So all that seems possible in the short to medium term is the company "treading water". I can't see this sp rising much on that prospect.

Https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7203328888381292545/

From Marc Howard, journalist:

"Tanzania has granted a 25-year development licence to the Ntorya JV, the country's largest onshore gas play. Operator ARA Petroleum LLC Tanzania (APT) said it was “ready to launch work immediately”, with first gas expected “in the next year”. The JV expects production to reach 40 mcf/d within the first year, increasing to 140 mcf/d, as per a gas sales agreement with parastatal Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation concluded earlier this year.

Ntorya is part of the Ruvuma PSA, directly north of Mozambique’s colossal offshore gas finds, where LNG megaprojects are being developed. APT general manager Erhan Saygi is bullish on Ntorya’s propsecting, saying he believes its licence area holds “truly enormous volumes of gas”. APT holds an operated 75% of the JV, with LSE-listed Aminex PLC the remainder."

GLA

I wouldn't argue with that Win, I probably tend to agree with most of it. But as I have said the original issue was not the necessity or the justification of the Farm-Out but whether the coming AGM was THE most important ever. I suggest not. Easy to say after 8 years of hindsight that it was the right thing to do but who knows where we might have been if the Tanzanian administration had not held up the Ruvuma development for that 8 years?

Anyway one and all off up to London today, so have a great day Aminexers.

I say again GW that a Lab report based on the Itumbula1 drill is no longer even relevant, it will be superseded by the EWT for Itumbula and a new basin model. Things have moved on, the information from Itumbula changed the thinking. It is the NEW thinking and any new information from the EWT that is now relevant. A Lab report for that drill would provide nothing that wasn't already known from the onsite analysis. That analysis suggested that to provide the information needed to progress to a JV and production the company needed an full EWT and that nothing else would be adequate.

So GW you can carry on calling for a Lab report until you are blue in the face but all it would confirm is that He1 needs to do an EWT - which, as you well know, is in the plans for early Q3. Th reality is that no-one will sign a JV until He1 have a "commercial discovery" and that they will only be a le to do AFTER an EWT. From which I think we can conclude that an "interim" Lab report would not have allowed the company to do that and hence would have been a waste of money.

Now a "Lab report" after the planned EWT might well be needed for independent corroboration of a "commercial discovery" but let's address that when we get to it. Until then it will add no value.

"Any JV partner need Detail Lab report before they will make any offer." Maybe but there is zero point in their publishing a lab report of anything that has been unearthed to date - it will all be superseded by a new Basin Model, supported by the results of the EWT (which are likely to need to be independently verified), flow rates with and without stimulation, formal annoucement of a commercial discovery, verification and validation of a new production model and then perhaps a good JV agreement.

So the "Lab report" is a total irrelevance pre EWT and harping on about it is as equally pointless.

Yes SQ we absolutely had our backs to the wall and had very little room for manoeuvre but to suggest that the coming AGM is the most important ever is just ludicrous in my view - eight years since that date and we are in a much better position than we were then it is true but that was the AGM that created today's reality. We had to do it but that was due to the poor choices and mismanagement of the time and, in my view, was at a real "fire-sale" price. There were may ways AEX could have progressed the company position without diluting the shareholders down to nothing (as mctripe would have you believe) but unfortunately that was never to be. As one of the current Directors said to me last year, they could and should have raised cash after the NT2 drill and the Farm-Out may well have been avoided - but that is now history.

"If it wanted to raise that $140,000,000, we'd have been diluted far more than via the sale to ARA, our shareholdings would have been worthless. Best thing AEX did was sell to ARA." Oversimplistic nonsense, from the person that keep telling us that Ruvuma will make us all so rich - 16TCF, Condensate and Oil to boot!! But the "best thing we ever did" was selling 50% of that huge asset for $35m of carry and some small change...?

"Reversal is expected tomorrow" - by some maybe but not by everyone.

No mention of Oil in the PSA the GSA or the Development License, however those that think Ntorya is an Oil play ought to come to the AGM and ask the BoD what they have to say about it. Self evidently they will only get satisfaction from hearing the answers themselves - and they are quite right to think so. Conversely anyone that has attended any of the recent AGM's will have heard the answers to similar questions from the Q&A sessions held during that time and so will have some understanding of the context.

Unlike Pubcrawlmctripe.

At least "gas" (and, we suppose, condensate) is provided for in the PSA and the GSA (or at least so we can expect) - not so Oil jamtart.

Far more important? Than ensuring that the company had a future?! Halt the erosion of shareholder value?

All the work is now ARA's; AEX and shareholders are just along for the ride. Kiliwani is all the company now controls. And only that for as long as the TPDC allows them to sit on their hands and do nothing.

The Aminex Pubcrawl does it again.....

Best you turn up to answer your many questions then!

Stockcheque, aka haggismctripe, is the AEX BB equivalent to Pubcrawl on He1 ;0)

"the most important AGM in the history of the company...." Really?! How many have you been aware of? I can think of a few that would easily rank alongside (Farm-Out...?).

But even if you actually believe this claim surely more reason for you to make an effort to turn up?

It'll need a bit more than a £200 trade methinks....

I am sorry to have to inform everyone that I will NOT be able to attend the post AGM lunch on the 27th ( I start a new role on the 17th and will not be in charge of my diary on that day) . Indeed there is a considerable risk that I will not be able to attend the AGM, though I hope that I will be able to do so even if it means leaving earlier than I would choose.

So one as I will not be able to attend, I will have to hand over the arrangements to a.n.other. I would be happy to make a few suggestions for suitable venues as it is an area of town that I know well having worked in the area for a few years.

It needs to stick!!

Agreed who is buying just for a bounce that may not materialise. As for the longer term prospects, it must be touch and go as to whether they can recover from this? It may happen but I, for one, would rather take my chances elsewhere.

Totally irrelevant.