Member Info for CrustyPete

McNol you will probably find that each transaction is an allocation of a higher level "bulk" transaction. So, let's assume that I am a Discretionary Fund Manager and I run accounts for a multitude of underlying clients. I am running 200 portfolio's that all look the same and I choose to change the value of a holding or choose to buy something new. I might buy 4,000,000 shares across the entire list of 200 accounts but then allocate a portion of it to each underlying client. These days every client has to be able to make the elections for corporate actions and so things can no longer be held at an "omnibus" level and so whilst only ONE order was put through the market it then gets split into 200 different "pots"...

86400 if using a 24hr clock. Maybe a lot more in Tanzanian time 😜

The Feasibility Study from 6 months ago can surely only be "validated" with the completion of a CPR and, as yet, to mine and anyone else's knowledge there isn't one as yet produced - though there now could be one in the background. I suspect that the "withholding" recommendation would similarly apply to the any CPR. Any CPR and the feasibility study that relies on it are inextricably linked to the assets under the ground, which are themselves irrefutably the property of Tanzania, its citizens and Authorities and hence considered by them to be their property and theirs to release when they see fit.... which will not be until they provide He1 with a License to extract them.

No chance? I disagree - currently a 50:50 chance. But diminishing by the week 🥺

Typically those so called short positions can only be identified if they equate to a minimum of a 0.5% position. And none of any retail shorters are going to have such a position - there could be hundreds, even thouasnds of smaller positions out there that would remain unreported.

So gogs the site preparation and the data analysis can be done in parallel with any drilling activity and so can be left out of any timeline equation, so any objective analysis of your timelines below will conclude that - as yet - H1 2025 production is still more than a realistic possibility.

You note below that State 16 well took 12 days from completion of the site preparation (15/05/2024) to TD completion (27/05/2024). So allowing more time to exit the drill and move the drill to a new (relatively nearby) location, say 3/5 days. It would take them 17 days to drill each of the subsequent 5 drills; 5 x 17 = 85 days, or certainly less than three months.

Yes weather conditions are currently interfering with activity but the "winter" weather have passed by the end of March and that will still leave the necessary three months to complete the remaining drills.

So we still have a bit of wiggle room. Though I would freely admit that the wiggle room is ever diminishing and your point is well made.

Sorry, meant to add to "I was never expecting anything before June and, thankfully, that still remains a possibility" with and to achieve that they need top start work on the pipeline at some point during the next 6 weeks or thereabouts.

So let's hope that we do!

I think it is mostly about "sequencing" and before such things as NT2 "workover" and then subsequent development of CH1 and NT1 workovers can progress the JV partners need to know if and, if so, when the Pipeline build is going to start and finish. As I suggested after the AGM (8 months ago now) ARA do not want to open up NT2 only then to have to close it down again, so need to have a completion date for the pipeline before being in a position to start work, they will want any NT2 gas to go straight into the pipeline. . And they won't even be contemplating sinking time and money into CH1 /NT1 until the pipeline is established.

Though CH1 and NT1 are even more dependent on a second piece of "sequencing" and relates to rig availability. The general consensus is that ARA are due to be sharing a Rig with M&P, who themselves have commitments to drill two new wells in Mtwara in H1 2025 and that (as now seems clear) ARA will wait for M&P to complete their drills before taking delivery of the rig. So far I have not seen any mention of M&P having even identified the relevant rig let alone started drilling, so what might the implications of that be? Any answers would be pure speculation but maybe ARA now cannot afford to wait any longer and are looking at a different solution? Or maybe they know what and when they can get hold of it but just need M&P to confirm their own timeframes before making any hard and fast announcements?

Pipeline initiation is key and all hinges on that in my view; until that first domino falls neither ARA nor AEX have much they can say. I am aggrieved that the BoD haven't updated us on the delay to the anticipated April production target but, reaslitically, until gthey can tell us what that new target date is, what value would that provide - they would simply be confirming what the market already knows and what one Tanzanian Publication has already recently suggested - production from Ntorya now "mid 2025"..... you will have to draw your own conclusions as to what "mid 2025" might mean; anything between May - August I would suggest??

Personally, based on AGM conversations, I was never expecting anything before June and, thankfully, that still remains a possibility.

Actually Zoffy I know nothing about Star Wars and so really have no idea what you are talking about. Moreover I choose to operate in the "real world". Fantasy is for fantasists.

But Zoffy, it is possible to be selective too. Most of the naysayers actually have nothing to say beyond simplistic, infantile, repetitious cliches and soundbites - there is zero value in any of those, just "noise".

More psychotic ranting from our paranoid schizophrenic 😂

Am I missing something MALBRAD? The half yearly results were issued in September 2024 were they not? Full year results next, sometime in March or early April. Are you suggesting that we will need to wait for those for the next news drop?

Crypt and PC the first thing I would point out, as I am sure you will know, is that it is impossible to strip out the Galactica affect on the share price from the influence of Rukwa, which is, of course our jewel in the crown so I suspect that we will never know the answer BUT on what we know it is likely that the proposed 15 well drill programme will provide us with what, an $8m annual income? More over the initial $3m revenue from the 6 well development well programme is due (on current forecasts) to be re-invested in the subsequent drills so, to a large extent we are unlikely to see full value from that phase 1 income reflected in our sp I think until that re-investment is seen to provide a positive ROCE. However, that aside, I will also point out that even a 3p share price would value He1 at £180m market cap or $240m. 5p £300m or $400m.

To expect that sort of valuation from an $8m annual revenue is optimistic in the extreme in my view..... so on that basis I would suggest Galactica on its own would justify no more than 2 - 2.5p at best. And even that would be on a forward looking expectation of considerably more income to come and that would require sight of an extended programme of drills in the short to medium term.

Miavoce I cannot imagine that Scancell would consider selling the platform for anything less than $1.2 bn - that is what Genmab are contracted to pay them for successful delivery of the two Genmab products; if the profile of the first solution look extremely positive it would give validation to the second product and the expectation on Scancell's part that they could look forward to receiving the full contract value. Might they discount it for the risk and time value of the contract completion? Yes maybe but, on the other hand, once sold they also kiss goodbye to all future JV potential. and why would they want to do that after two successful product developments? So, in my view Genmab would have to pay a premium for a complete buyout of Glymab

Well that is your opinion Zoffy and you are welcome to it - if it is just Galactica you are referring to then I would agree that, individually none of the consecutive wells will be sufficient to take up back to recent highs but a fully completed 6 well drill programme that takes us to production by the end of Q2 should get us some significant part of the way there. Then we have the ML approval which whilst in itself it provides nothing itself it is a keystone moment in "commercialising" Rukwa and allowing He1 to demonstrate "proof of concept and since the end of January when many were originally expecting the ML to come through that "priced-in" factor has considerably receded as that anticipation has waned.... that means that any reaction will be bigger now than it was then.

And both of the above ignores the principal catalysts whihc are the Feasibility Study and CPR, both eof which I expect to follow cloce on the heels of the ML aproval, if not actually with it.

All of the above will, in my opinion take us back above recent highs - the only question for me is the degree of that rise and that I think will depend on how long we wait for all of the above to materialise and the length of the wait between each of them.

Well for what it is worth, if it were not for the fact that I already feel terribly "overweight" with SCLP, I would now be buying more - I honestly believe we are at or very near to the "bottom". So whilst I cannot justify buying more personally I have changed my "opinion" to a BUY.

Not at all tempting to me I'm afraid to say Rob - I have more than enough and at an average price some way below the current "offer", let alone the "bid". I will only be buying more once we get some definitive news; might I pay more as a consequence? Yes, of course, but equally I could end up paying less through waiting. It is now self-evident that an chance of an April production date has long since evaporated (has anyone had the courtesy of letting us know that? 😡) and without delivery of news on that pipeline initiation we could well be waiting a while yet. Is the forthcoming Conference a harbinger of imminent Pipeline news? Maybe - indeed I hope so - but I won't be taking a punt on that.

Callum can you copy and paste the relevant piece of the article; I cannot make that URL work despite trying many permutations of **************

At least they found a market for them - more than would have been true on most days recently....

So that would be a good start to the next week! ☺️

Oh and look old slacknackers is back venting his enmity. So slacknackers tell us all, were "we" right? Did what "we" all knew was going to happen yesterday, come to pass?