Member Info for Crossley

I know where your coming from Furry, and i'm disappointed they didn't. Especially when they're 43% ahead. We shall see in a few moments..

In fact, Ill go a little further, of 20 analysts, one (the highest) had operating profits before exceptional items between 1600 and 1650. The common consensus (8 analysts) had between1400 and 1450

Way above analysts expectations on profits. Straight to auction. Open beginning with a 4 surely?

Morning Jinvestus,

Hope everything is well with yourself. I’ve posted here (for now) as this seems to be your preferred destination.

I’ve been out of the country for a while. But I did note your post while I was away. Is it still something of interest to you? Happy to discuss further if so, that question beginning ..

What are peoples thoughts on PSN through 2025/2026?

Morning giantsquid,

Hope all is well. But, what is dirt cheap? The skill really is finding the bottom, or as close to the bottom as possible isn’t it?, whichever is your preferred’piece’ in this sector. I recall waiting over 18 months, until wading in once Liz Truss had done her thing back in September’22, albeit, a lot more inexperienced and knowledgeable in the sector than I (hopefully) am now. And the prices back then, well I’ve chose these comparisons wisely I believe. Barratt’s were a different business, back then. Persimmon still had another full year to fall from their dizzy heights and over inflated SP, thanks to their previous, almost suicidal policy. Vistry unrecognisable. But, Taylor Wimpey would still have to fall over 18% to be where they sat back at the end of September 2022. And the benchmark share for the sector, Bellway would have to fall an incredible, maybe unbelievable 37% to return to where it was on that same day, that day being the 29th.

I’m not saying we will see those prices again. But I’m also not clouded enough, to see that those prices are not possible. What if the FTSE were to make a rerate from this all time high? Where might this sector, and their prices sit then?

Just some food for thought maybe?

Afternoon WW, Poker.

The first dividend of £165m is accounted for. My mistake. I still have the second div of 4.4p. That’s based on 7.5% of current net assets, reported today. That’d be 156m off that £513m.The £513m being made up of the existing net cash plus the £186m of H2 net profits. That'd be about right, £357m, net cash.

That would still leave this..

£301.7 million of the land creditors is expected to be paid within 12 months. Had a bit of a google for this bit and this was the response...

The £301 million of land creditors' debt that Taylor Wimpey is looking to refinance is likely being taken from a combination of sources, including its existing banking syndicate and private debt placements. This refinancing is part of a broader strategy to restructure the company's debt and potentially allow for future land acquisitions.

Sound about right?

I actually meant the cash generation in H2 plus the net cash would equate to £513.3m I think I came too. Then minus the £622 or £551 costs, leaving a net minus balance of £108m or £38m?

Morning WW,

Why? How have you come to £350m

Morning,

Had a deeper look.These are my thoughts. Firstly, I'm coming back to what I said in January, the land is not be replenished at the rate of build. Something to keep an eye on. Im guessing they're playing for time and hoping these exceptional 'one offs' finally f**k off?

Net cash is £326.6m. Land liabilities in the next 12 months are £301.7m. IF the dividend policy is maintained, H2 dividend should be 4.4p, making a total of 9.07p (9.07/ 101.6 (SP) =8.92%) or they go for the 250m option (7.06/101.6= 6.95%). The only other alternative will be to change the policy, or suspend the dividend. Don't see either happening unless something 'exceptional' pops up again. That's either a total cost on dividends of £321m or £250m. So costs of either £622.7m or £551.7m over the next 12 months. H2 profits after tax (assuming 29% tax) and if hit, would be a net of £186.7m. That'd give net cash at year end of around £513m

Happy to hear of other opinions/corrections?

Can’t see much good in there tbh. Margins, assets down, land prices % of asp up, even excluding exceptionals. TW hoping and expecting H2 will be better. Bit of a stinker really? Auction? But you never know…

But, look at the total returns over the last 2 & 5 years

LGen 30.3%:75.8%

PHNX 44%:51.7%

MNG 55%:156.5%

AV 90.2%: 246.7%

I think divi will be half for 2026/2027

Taylor Wimpey's dividend policy involves returning a fixed percentage of net assets to shareholders, specifically around 7.5%, with a minimum annual payout of £250 million, paid in two instalments.

They’d have to be something of seismic proportions for it to drop below 7.06p for the full year

Well,

I’ve sold once, bought once, YTD return is 76.47%, and top of my entire portfolio performance, for the year, so far. I’ll stick with my strategy thank you. I’d say that’s worth it, to me at least

That’s a compound rate return of 30.3% over the five years.

Warren Buffet’s average return is 19.8% (albeit over 40 years).

I’m guessing we better start all listening to you then! What should we be buying, and why?

Betterlife,

Your first sentence: from retirements post,

I stated (started) buying 3 years ago and scaled in. Not many Stocks return you 44% ave PA.

Your second: 98p to £3.68 (not 86) is a 275% rise. Not worth it?

Third sentence: IAG has already surpassed pre pandemic levels based on the value of the company (MCap)

It’s not so much to do with the numbers of homes sold. Even if PSN returned to the dizzy days of churning out 16000 homes per year, the profits would still be way down on previous years. Since the increase in inflation (starting in 2021) the margins just are not there, for any builders. Although, Persimmon do have the best margins in the sector, and are showing signs of slowly creeping up. As I have posted before, PSN would need to build (and sell) 30000 homes to generate the same net profits that they realised in 2021, when they ‘only’ sold 14551 homes.The added tax that builders pay (corporation and RPDT) hasn’t helped either. The tax for HB’s is now 29% against the 19% they were previously paying.

Really interested to see what happens on open today for Ryanair:

Auction, then 9.8% up, currently 5% up. Now that’s some turbulence!

Https://www.lse.co.uk/news/legal-general-announces-163500m-buyback-as-annual-profits-rise-ukpqk6uaneze84y.html

I ain’t complaining with the SP performance. Bought back in 14 weeks ago on April 9, for £2.29. That’s over 65%. It was so clear to see at the time. I suppose, you either can or you cannot see these things.

Typo. The additional costs are £75.7m and the surplus is £64.3m. I’m messy with my papers and pencils! Which is equal to the drawdown amount to finance the deal.

Hope all goes well over the next few weeks. I’m out of the country for a while, take care