Member Info for Crossley

Hello Steve,

It feels good to start to rebuild my position here.

How’s things with you mate? Work still for the better? Hope so…

Well, I've gone against what I've come to learn. "Run to Bellway first". Just prefer the look of the figures here at the moment. Probably be proved to be wrong, we shall know in a day and a bit...Bought half of the ones I let go not so long back, for £11.36. Will buy the other half tomorrow, depending on what Bellway say, along with the inflation data coming out of the States. Might be a bit early I feel, but wanted to get a toe in before that Bellway release. Got expectations for decent figures here. The remaining two thirds I let go last year, see how things go? The value of the FTSE against the state of the economy is my main worry, more than the fundamentals of the company itself. I'm not so sure it's looking like a 9126 situation out there.

Best of luck PSNers, back about 7:30 in the morning after a look at what BWY have to say

Hope you’re going to be a tad nicer moving forward Jock?

Morning Steve, Christofer and all investors here.

H1 this week. Personally, I’m expecting results to push PSN to the top of the HB’s sector. Will they buck the trend and rise on results? I think all others have dropped if memory serves me correctly

They’ll meet again in another 6 weeks, then every six weeks moving forward (if you didn’t already know) . I believe the markets are pricing in another cut in November. Here’s a little info. In fact it looks like they had to have a re vote….

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/bank-england-cuts-rates-4-after-narrow-5-4-vote-2025-08-07/

Afternoon Snudge,

It would, or should. But they were expecting 8 of the 9 members to vote for the cut. When actually, only 5 voted for a cut and 4 voted to leave rates where they were. Throwing speculation that future rate cuts may, possibly, get pushed further down the line. Although, where we are in another 6 weeks, well, that’ll be anyone’s guess. Hope this helps

Looking like they're expecting 8 of the 9, to vote for a rate cut shortly.

If my info is correct, it was a lot closer with 5 for a cut and 4 unchanged..

Morning all, hope you are well.

Thank you to those, for taking the time to object to the outburst/personal attack. Bit of an unfortunate downgrade here, I was sorry to read this.

Looking like they're expecting 8 of the 9, to vote for a rate cut shortly.

Hello Strictly,

Spent a lovely couple of days out with one of my daughters, was nice.

Well, tbh Strictly, I think there was a little history to Jock's outburst on Monday, on his part. I think that he thought I had an ulterior motive or something, last year when he was piling into Vistry. Don't know why, because the reality was the complete opposite. He was, or indicated he was, buying into VTY, all the way down from dizzy heights, to the lowly lows, if memory serves me right. He was indicating large amounts too. I'd got a bit of a bee in my bonnet about Vistry at the time, after spotting something, that to me at least, was a worrying sign. I tried to reach out to Jock, once the profit warnings got under way, to make him aware of my findings, by beginning a conversation. After a similar response to here the other day, I wished him well and left him to his plans. Unfortunately for Jock, if he had given me the chance, he may well have ended up saving himself quite a bit. Or, losing quite a bit less, depending on how you look at it. Ironically enough, I ended up reading Jock saying something similar to what I was trying to tell him, but quite some time later. Alas, they'd chucked another profit warning or two in by then. One on Christmas Eve too, lovely! I'm sure there's a moral or three in here? Take careful footsteps trying to help others at times, maybe give people a chance, they may have your interests at heart, you can always dismiss it if you don't agree, and always read everything Vistry write, rather than just that old favourite, Vistry expects..

As I have posted many times. I don't wish anyone to lose money. I gain nothing from it, so why would I?

And, if you're reading this Jock, I hope your investment into TW serves you well. Btw, I do not do advice. Only provide information, based on fact hopefully, along with the way I see those facts. Investments are people's own individual responsibilities.

Good luck TW holders (if you're still reading!), I hope things pick up for you sooner rather than later..

There was plenty of chat over the weekend about this, a bit lower down.Might be worth a read? Especially what Strictlybricks has had to say, along with the smoothed policy chat. Although, £424m pre tax profit, on a normal year for a HB that’d be about £300m after taxes (29% ish). If the 7.5% net asset policy is stuck to, that would cost about £320m. I think Wimps are burning through their short term land bank quicker (twice as fast) as Persimmon (-11650 plots over the last three years). Bellway are sustaining theirs. Theres £301m for creditors over the next 12m. Operating profit margin is down from 12% to 9.7%. They’d have to increase that by 45% to match Persimmons 14.1%. That’s a big gap. Hope those margins do not continue to keep falling. But, the choice is yours my friend. Good luck whatever you do. We all see things differently at the end of the day. I just see better run companies in my opinion than TW at the moment in this sector. Again, best of luck

Careful with that one Angeleyee, TW. It’s cheap, but for a reason. £222 remediation costs, that’s large. Just to put into comparison, TW operating profit margin is 9.7%. They’d have to find another 45% to match Persimmons 14.1%. Net profits won’t cover the dividend if the 7.5% net assets policy is stuck too. Anyways…

https://www.fool.co.uk/2025/08/04/still-at-a-bargain-basement-price-is-it-time-for-me-to-buy-more-of-this-ftse-100-banking-star/

If they lost a finger off their gloves every time they had a ‘one off’ payment, they’d have a pair of mittens by now

There you go again Betterlife. What you on about? Of course Close brothers are rising. They’ve just saved millions. Still doesn’t quite cut that their shares are down 70% over the last four years.

As for repeating the same cycle. It was a company that was doing well. Then Covid(one off, hopefully, but one off so far). Then restructured (done once) Then recovery.

What exactly do you see as IAG’s all time high? Please explain, SP, MCap, what? And, if there was to be a global crash, everything falls

Morning Christofer, hope all is well with yourself. If they don’t drop it, it ain’t going to go down to well. I see the Guardian have over 80% for a cut and Morningstar at 94%. Priced in I’d have thought.

Just one thing to keep an eye on moving forward. I’ve only just noticed this after clicking on Q1 results by mistake. The net debt payments for Q1 were €1.388b while Q2 figures come in at €0.67b. Div payments were roughly €280m giving an outflow total of €0.95b for the three months. Shares bought back in Q1 came in at 82.3m and Q2 were 77.3m. Suppose Q2 would be a higher price but can’t be bothered to do the donkey work for total expenditure. Looks about equal monies spent though. I’ll be keeping an eye on the outflows to see if there’s any clues of diminishing outflows in Q3.

Read all the news reported yesterday, Reuters etc. Lazy in my opinion. Didn’t really touch on any of the good points, that lie under the obvious. Here’s my take, for better or worse.

They’ll surely have to up their guidance in the next Q update. Way out in front of last year’s figures. Disappointed they didn’t this update. Just means it’s shoved down the line three months or so. Slightly over cautious imo. I’m sure it wasn’t stated now, only due to the uncertainties from outside influences. Not interested in dividends myself. Let’s carry on getting that net debt level down 27.3% a year and up the buybacks. If net debt can carry on being reduced at the rate of the last 12 months, they’ll be free of it in 2Y 8M. I did a bit of a run on the £10b (60% of MCap) return to shareholders over five years that one of the analysts (can’t remember which one at the moment) did, with the split being 70% buybacks and 30% dividends (as it is now) and the figure came to, (without the business growing, in any way), £5.69p. Purely based on the eventual shares in issue and the MCap remaining constant. Shares bought back over the five years with that ratio came in at 1.593 billion. Buybacks will need to average £1.4b per annum. Dividend return remaining consistent at £600m p/a, would pay out in year 5, 19.5p. 83p over the 5 years. Potential of

Buybacks/ dividend against dividends if that £10b was returned in dividends alone. Dividend alone £2.14. Then there’s 19% tax to be deducted. Total return per shareholder = £1.73. If it were to be returned 70% buyback, 30% dividend. 83p in divs, minus 19% tax = 67p. Plus the £1.94 SP appreciation = £2.61. Be careful what you wish for with those divs. The lesser the better as far as I’m concerned. Imagine where this has the potential to go to if those exceptional figures of yesterday are to carry on, and be realised? Let’s hope that analyst is on the button for a change with those returns to shareholders.

25p would cost £1.16b. You don’t want dividends anyway. You’re robbing yourself!

I'll agree with the compounding strategy. That's how this portfolio (my S&S Isa) is built upon. The target being an annual 16.6% average return. That'll turn every 100K into a million after 15 years. I personally do not see HB's moving until we see margins improving. They haven't been good of late. BTRW poor, Wimps falling. PSN the best of a bad bunch at the mo. VTY need to be careful. They cannot afford for them to drop much more than the last update imo. Good luck either way

My plan was to sell on opening with good results like i did in February. I shall now hold.

Are peoples LSE working on i phone?

Gutted with that opening. Debt down 27.4% too

I know where your coming from Furry, and i'm disappointed they didn't. Especially when they're 43% ahead. We shall see in a few moments..