Member Info for crl123

You know what?
I was stamping my foot.
You know…tantrum.
Steam. Insecurity. Previous experiences influencing me. And perhaps a bad mood..not sure.
I just read the other thread.
Happy to be educated and take back what I wrote.
Not because I feel pushed into it but because I mean it.
I blame the Pfizer booster-made me feel sh**. ( joking). I have just been taken for a mug many times…as recently as departing CEO at Ncyt. I always say I can be wrong.
Apologies for being so crappily downbeat.
Nothing wrong with me having a tantrum but it was probably uncalled for and result of me just being me.

This thread is valium.
I’m a great one for being educated.

I also feel that news is not coming. This may have been leaked as it usually is.
Renaissance Tech are 0.5% short and maybe others below 0.5%. They are not rushing to close shorts. I think we are chasing our tail here.
I always say never to expect an RNS-even if promised.
I think Ollie’s sale has given mm’s and shorters a good reason to depress the s/p .
Just like before.
Waiting for an RNS is like waiting for Xmas. Except we know when Xmas is coming.
I think we are being taken for a bit of a ride here. CEO toof us for a merry ride in Ncyt. Took a fat bonus and bu**ered off. That simple. We didn’t know he had hidden the govt. contract problem from us. Hence my ( and Porky’s) large loss. Being taken for mugs. It is common and has happened to me several times . No fault of my own. All led up garden path.
I think we are mugs to expect in a hurry here.
Why keep shorting? Why keep selling?
Just trying to see what is behind the smokescreen at the moment. I suspect we are being led a merry dance.

Mm’s have played it very cleverly. Delayed AT sells and the drop.

The short term white noise:- plenty of moderate buys.
But large sells depressing the price.
But it is just how the market is. No reason why Ollie should still be selling. He didn’t last time.

Good speculation Porky. But mind that exuberance now. Based on evidence, optimism becomes reality.
I am uplifted by directors and Merck in here.
But as we found out with the govt. and Ncyt, we just can’t know certain unknowables.
I however support your positivity.
Today did exactly what I thought. But I had it going up later in day. Not sure.
As you say..
Time will tell

Yes it is a bizarre wait.
I too am patient but it is curious.
Biome-data from China (fwiw!) and elsewhere is positive..but I take nothing for granted. But if Merck are in here at £1.35 and the Placing was at £1.10p ( directors put in 6 years salary each) then it is not without some internal support. 67p is incredible and I wish I could have entered here!!
But we have about 24 working days.

Mm’s testing the bait in the water. But retail not biting.
Lots to support the price.
Much news due. It’s not just random.

Not a one horse race though. Not like Forte.
Not gonna lose the lot .
Even they didn’t.
If I felt it was a 50/50 pure punt I would not be here. For a mile. That’s a literal roulette gamble.
I don’t gamble. I research and invest . Biomes are not a gamble.

I also don’t readily get out of the car at the gym . S’pose I ought to go in since I’m there. Just two saddo cars.

Have good eve

Yup
I don’t see £1:80
Or 55p
But the latter seems more at hand.
But I have been in a share last year which went up 500% in a day. ( SNG) . I only doubled as had a sell order.
But look at Seres Therapeutics a year ago. Same sort of business as 4D. Climbed a lot this week. Ultimately we are all only guessing and will wait and see.
I personally will just feel sh** looking at a bigger loss if it dips. My friend holds the same amount as me at a higher average. Now he believes that the selling mis likely to have stopped-like last time-and the knowledge of where the sells were from will cause an uptick.
Me? I think mm’s will try to get us to panic sell but buyers are likely to step in. News( good , bad or ugly) is a game changer and is well overdue. All guesswork right now …on a mizz November night. May have to force myself out to the gym…if I can make myself:-) Numbs the uncertainties in life!!!!
Hate Nov+ Dec anyway. Dark at 4:20

I have wondered myself. But I was never going to say anything.
Well I see it as a negative on a personal level as I hold more than enough shares-trust me- and have nothing available to buy . It would hardly dent my average anyway as I hold so many.

What you say can happen.But so can the opposite and all sorts of alternative scenarios. 69p is almost a 40% discount to Placing already. There are many other variables and potentials at play here.

The lowest Oliveira sold at was 76p.
His 16th Sep.RNS was as the share finished at that price. He has issued no RNS in the two months since that date so by law he cannot have sold any after that date.
The market at the time did not know this of course so the price kept falling. There may have been shorters or other sellers or just mm games.
Had he sold after this date then he would have had to issue an RNS . Todays sells were probably over the last few weeks at 80p’ish down to 69.4p on Friday.
There is no supportable reason why the share should plummet at all.
Of course it may. Shares can do anything.
We have no idea whether he will continue to sell at all. Nor whether there are shorters. One can imagine all sorts of dire possibilities but there is no evidence for any of them. Share can just as easily go up as buyers see a decent entry price before sequences of news. Or not. Yours is an imaginary worst case scenario .

“The updates will come. It’s just when”
I am not worried about the when. I am used to waiting.
The nature of the results is the all-important factor.
I take nothing for granted in investing. Especially in pharmas.
The directors and Merck give this the credibility that keeps me here.

Porky
Appreciate your post. I always have a moan when on a loss. Much much experience of it. Lost everything once. And you know about me and NCYT of course!!!
But it’s not all about me!!!
It’s about discussing this company.
Trials are a risk. We cannot guarantee results. To consider the price is set to multibag is misleading and delusional. It may . It may go down on poor results. I will only ever be real. I think your £1:80 is eminently more reachable than your £53 Ncyt but maybe that was a “ private investor’s metaphor”!
I have very much learned the hardest way possible never to expect. I take what comes and decide accordingly. I screw up. I sometimes do ok ( e.g. SNG last July.
I am here because of the director buys and Merck and because I know about biomes anyway from before 4D existed. I have a ridiculously varied qualificational background ..most of which is not used!! Lol . BA hons/Post grads galore/Dip.Psych and God knows what else. Life is a much better educator. As are my kids. My biggest educator has been suffering! Do le lol but no lie there. It affects my attitude to risk. I believe in intelligent risk. Life is nil( for me) without it. This is all relevant to 4D/Casino/Aim.
I also felt fund buying was going on. I agree about just holding. Next week could plummet Monday or go down then up. News could be good or bad. What the hell…we really don’t know.
I am not influenced by other posters in my decisions so I don’t get involved with the ramp stuff. I make own decisions irrespective of anyone anonymous I have never met. You have done a fair bit of homework here I notice. I had to.
My PF is in very tatty and half what I had 7 yrs ago. Scammed by Pog and the oil drop in Trin and my errors. But health is wealth and some of the richest people I personally know died this year…much younger than me. Inc the CEO of Trin in August. Overnight. So I’ll take arisk or two.
Set my kids up already.
Most of this not relevant to your post but really refers to the risk/reward don’t know factor involved in trial pharmas particularly. Ncyt is different. Govt ****ed them over.
It’s a sit sweat and hold from me :-)
With some curiosity about next week.
My betting is down then up,
But do I have a clue?
Thanks 4 response

Decent post
But in August after the 92p 5 day high snippet, it proceeded to fall sharply.
And the September sell actually led to a 57p low. I bought at such.
I agree we cannot know Oliveira’s plan.
But to be at 69p and uncertain if it’ll go down further is unkind on us after what we have been through. I feel it’ll only go down if mm’s play on it or if rtail holders panic and sell. Unnecessary and Lemming-like conclusion. Best to hold . Almost everyone will be on a loss as sub-70’s mostly sold out.
If people hold their nerve, we only have the canny marketvto compete with.
Oliveira may have finished selling. I feel so. And may want the price to rise now.
He did not need tonissue TR 1 today and is usually 10 days late!! It may be a stoppage. We’ll see.
I am at 92-94p. Below placing but large loss. Happy to wait but of course it hurts on top of the other large loss ( Ncyy) whose rise I missed out on due to a bed and Isa transfer ffs.
Oliveira has cleared the air a little I feel rather than thinking “ how much more will he sell?” It does not follow. Too many things we cannot know.
My position , as always, is hold and wait with awareness . This is now about 30% below Placing price!!! For me, if I were a new investor, it’d be a no-brainer.

Yes that’s where I am too. . Overweight at 94p I think. Hard to average down with the amount I hold.
I unfortunately lost out also on Ncyt this week as my cash holding was being transferred to my Isa. Ncyt went up so I lost out there too as it can only be transferred as cash. Poor fortune on all of my stocks this week. Even my oil stock crashed.
20% down in a week. 40% down since Ncyt crashed in Feb.
Roll with it.
Health is wealth.
Money matters but mental and physical health are far more important I have learned. Given most of my dosh to help kids have holidays , get through Uni and buy houses. So over half is gone. But put to best use. Better I lost it now than then.
I think in 6 months things will be clearer with 4D and my other holdings.
PF very low value right now. 28% loss just on 4D. 65% loss Ncyt . Big ouch
Take each day one at a time and don’t get obsessed with money( he says glibly!)
Good weekend to you

Good post. Tick up

Do you want to share your average Martyn. I first bought in at £1:20. Same price as late last year. Increased risk by increasing purchases and now stand in the mid nineties. But I hold more than I really wanted. Oliveira has really suppressed share stability.
Your privacy is paramount of course.

I will support Martyn.
I am losing shedloads. So is a friend. If you’re not keen on Porky , just filter him after your genuinely meant warning.
It’s like a witchhunt.
So he has form .Maybe.
OK
Warn people and leave the daggers out.
Like Martyn I am suffering megalosses here too and am not anxiety-free.
My choices
My responsibility
But no-one has to follow what he says nor ever did. I have been alongside him in Ncyt. His silly stuff about £53 didn’t make me buy more!!! It was seen as a joke.
This drop and uncertainty hirts most of us