Member Info for CRK22

Thanks BiB yes that’s another scenario but my smartphone typing started going awol at the size of my post so I cut short. I would take a buyout based on % of project NPV by Sino as a big win based on the combination of factors discussed. All depends on the % , the agreed NPV after review and my sp Avg. for all we know the China connection SC-Sino-State may be working in this direction anyway. Or it may not. All I know for sure is I’ve invested to ge a return. I’ve been here since Oct 2018 and my thinking towards this investment has deepened and become more open rather than less. Volumes of last 6 days are astronomically atypical vs the 2020 Daily avg cold. (Circa 61n) which preceded. I have no desire to get SSX’d

Thanks INI, agree with the list and order. Comments below

- Mining Licence
- Upgraded Feasibility study showing reduced costs and improved recovery rates.
- Gold Updates
- Off take and Finance News

ML - yes, first key but small inflexion , would have loved to see this as a swift follow up to build on 1st Sep RNS to last CL in positive sentiment and value. Obvious issue in Mali mean this delay time is not estimable yet but it would be great if it comes through before we slip to 0.07p.

- Upgraded FS - yes but with queries over assumed discount rate used (financiers are in it for the money and 8% seems out of kilter with the supply and demand for finance that global Lithium projects currently find themselves in). Is this another internal exercise? I thought this is one of Sinohydro actions to look over existing and help with its upgrade. Unknowable side of this which may be beneficial is internal confidence on how expandable the JORC night be. That’s a matter for speculation. Costs and recovery rates may see some movement but for where we sit against what I’ve seen of peers then costs may have more fat to trim than recovery rates have to add (in my opinion but it’s only an opinion)

- Gold updates are a different animal. I have honestly factored no gold upside into my investment at this point and remain open minded as to the outcome on this in light of the precious metals bull run.

Off take and finance news, again just an opinion 1st Sep RNS indicated Sino will likely help line KOD up with financiers or may even see it as an investment for themselves. This IMO would become apparent at end of 6 month exclusivity period. Sincere question for those thinking we get to production with Sinho and partners - at current FS (from memory) it’s 117m project cost to unlock circa 200m NPV project (Lithium assets only) , mcap was 12m during spike and mcap currently waning. There’s a few potential outcomes there imo

1) we get the cash, Sino get the contract and get to production but why would Sino lend us 117m to give back to them to do 117m worth of work. There’s got to be more in it for them than 8% interest on the finance.

2) Sino put KOD in touch with financiers who front the money for the project, Sino get the work with NO capital at risk and the financiers get the discount rate for the loan. I suspect it would be more than 8%, also it would have to be financiers with links to SC and Sino who have confidence that all parties will make their money

3) Sino, SC, linked financiers like the look of the project and decide to buy and run the assists through KOD or just outright. Companies don’t just exists to get to production, particularly explorers/ developers. That MAY be the end game but there’s plenty who aim to get bought out. Keeping enough cash and control is how they avoid being bought out cheap and fight off hostile acquisition. 40% of NPV for the project for Li assets in Bougouni would represent IMO a massive win for BA and cr

Of course it can drop. In absence of hard news an RNS which tweaks sentiment and massive volumes trading will see sentiment tail off. People get sick of waiting for a payoff and rot can set in.

Anyone who thinks it’s guaranteed should really read RNS’ back to two years and look at the sp in the weeks immediately following and see what they think.

For starters look leading up to Jan 29th 2020, June 5th to 8th 2020.

Sep 1st RNS was more positive than either of those so I would hope some value sticks however it was only an MOU so do we expect human nature to prevent sentiment tailing off between now and end of exclusivity period March 2021? (Beware confirmation bias).

GLA

JD it’s available to be worked out from RNS info , the FS gives an indication but the figures in there are speculative and should be treated with caution as each assumption that underlies the FS impacts the outcome of any calculation such as:

Assumed sale value of spod
Unconfirmed cost of project (project costs are prone to escalation)
Life of mine (correctly 8.5 years but included inferred resource rather than just indicated)
Discount rate (ie cost of finance) is 8% in our FS elsewhere I have seen 12% on other projects

So , while people can spin you out a number I’d advise anyone to do the work and crunch the numbers and also highlight the fixed known data in green and the beneficial assumptions in red (particularly if it seems more beneficial than standard norms) if you end up looking at a lot of red we’ll you are looking at high risks

Additional risks in juniors or developers is whether they will get to those positively impact ion share price inflexion points.

Has the management team bought shares with real
Money or is it just options? (Watch out for when management exercise options and sell when all seems to be going well)

Lots of considerations. Too easy to just take a quoted NPV divide by mcap and assume company will get there without dilution (I invested when there were 9.7bn shares now there’s 11.1bn and from 10th Sep there will by 11.3bn)

Just because an NPV can get there does not mean it will.

Question everything - the risk profile you assign to the investment should tell you how much of the farm to bet on it (hint: this is high risk with ups and downs)

Sincerely GL

Yes the warrants can be placed 10th Sep therefore two possibilities in play

1) as the warrant is exercisable at 0.048p the approx 200m shares may be dumped on or after 10th Sep and SP as a result may dip fort her

OR

2) The holder of the warrants may have s en how frenzied the volumes were and started short selling the stock against the volumes it is guaranteed to have and can use 10th September to fill the short sold orders

So,

We can’t know however with stock a couple of days ago selling significantly higher than now I would say if warrant holder had the means they would have short sold.

SP decline always likely after MOU spike. Notwithstanding the size and quality of Sinohydro and the strategic nature of its POTENTIAL partnership there are no guarantees.

Strategic partnership with SuayChin has been important at certain times however until there are firm deals in place , irreversible inflexion points ML (small inflexion) OTA (medium inflexion) Funding areal signed (large inflexion) any sp improvement may be built on sand and subject to retrace.

Be careful of people egging you on with unsubstantiated claims that 0.15, 0.2 are imminent. I’m not saying it can’t happen but you will notice the bull Sages fall gradually more silent as buying volumes drop against declining SP. The bear sages start to gradually pup up again.

For those who flirt between the two camps although they may at times talk sense it is a sign of low integrity to flip flop between the two.

GLA - hope that new players have not been spiked too deeply.

End up where Fosters? ;)

F100, no such thing as optimum strategy, buying the bottom and selling the top is a mentally draining thing to do and its not for me. I'm happy to pick a strategy stick to it and calculate what has happened vs what could have happened. GL to you.

He means because sentiment in the market has picked up and there's short term gains to be had. Like any investment this has long term risks and discussions on this BB on non spike days has chased round the pros and cons ad nauseam. I'm on the more moderate side of the debate here and imo Li as a macro story will work out but its the speculative nature in investing in a share with a (to this point) unknown funding option. Addition of Sinohydro to the game board is a big plus.

GLALTHs - its been a long slow decline and I hope this sp resurgence sticks.

Daz, your sarcasm is not being picked up it'll be thrown back at you as pump n dump talk later as you well know.

daz you naughty boy

Interesting Eyeguy, I suspect it requires abrupt cut of available supply to overlap with demand volume continuing. Will be interesting to see what today’s trading volumes tell us.

it's definitely been a bit chattier round here. Must be proportional to traded volumes and yes I expect it to quiet down somewhat in the next few days as people realise the only rocket in the vicinity belongs to a chap called Elon

Not much left to hold I'd think if they've gone from 3.97% down to 0.86%. Thats approx 360m shares they shed yesterday all at positive margin. Can't blame them for booking the win.

Yahoo finance adjusted closing price has update to 0.09. Sorry for any confusion. Roll on tomorrow

According to yahoo finance 0.0751p

Subject says it all.

I think there are a lot of people who have been worn down by this share in the las 9 months who may have limit sells in place to cut there losses. I suspect its a question of whether there is sufficient buying momentum to clear through it and start drying up liquidity.

The more blue on the board the better

Cheers SorB, your contributions are sorely missed on here. Still a long way to go on this ups and downs. Lets see what the day and week brings.

Agree with this. Its a positive RNS for sure but only indicative at this stage. We have however been starved of news here for a long time.

Fingers crossed