Member Info for CRK22

Not advice BiB, have to decide your own moves depending on circumstances. The characterisation of a question as advice isn't accurate or welcome but I apologise if you feel it came off as such.

So to be clear - I don't know what you did or did not do.

I sold a portion to reduce my overexposure and did not buy all of it back. I say this in the interest of transparency. However my posting I feel is not to the happy clapper side I hope you will agree but neither is it to the disastrous side so hopefully I can't be accused of pushing mood for investment one way or 'tother.

I merely said it was an option for you.

If you have and post spike while some residual gain over previous baseline remains post negatively i.e. to the apparent detriment of your holding then it would naturally seem unusual.

Personally its more normal that people post to the benefit of their investment agenda which is probably why investment agendas are best kept close to one's chest.

However that being said, I'm still over exposed and another event like the recent Friday spike I would see no harm in reducing capital exposure further. The investment is high risk and a position based on reasonable capital exposure and sp avg is sometimes a matter of timing and sometimes a matter of identifying a few opportunities along the way.

So there you go - some free information about me in response to what felt a snippy response from yourself which offered no information against none asked.

I sincerely ish all invested in this share good fortune - that would be fully in alignment with my good fortune.

GLA

BiB - how come on the previous spike you didn’t sell up say 50% of your holding? If you believe it’s really doomed you get a fair chunk back. On regression you could have bought back if you had a change of heart and kept the change.

It would have been a positive action within your control.

If you’re just mentally committed to all your investment being doomed and worthless it would have been like getting free money back.

If you’re just waiting for a spike to hit your sp avg to fully exit that depending on your sp avg may be quite an ask but a couple of spike events and regressions have offered you the chance to Hokey Cokey and improve your position.

Keep well fella.

Mcap 6.7m at today’s close vs sp of 0.07p for current SOI.

If SP goes up tenfold mcap goes up tenfold.

SP only goes up tenfold if underlying investment is sound or on sentiment spike.

Underlying investment and the nature of FS, Mali take, exchange rate, substitute a more realistic 10% discount rate and NPV is affected in a big way.

However this share is also very speculative,

1. SC partner may prove key for funding and OTA
2. Tier 1 vs tier 2 price structure for value chain yet to develop and may support or even positively impact IRR calc

It’s a sit and wait situation however was it FJ or fosters asking about buy or sell? Well how much and when is particular to your circumstances, shareholding SP average, capital already at risk etc etc but in the event of a spike of say 80% happening at any point each investor should IMO have an understanding of how that can adjust their position and shouldn’t be afraid to act accordingly. Sell some on spike but still at a loss and sp avg increases but exposure reduces , by an amount back on regression and the reverse happens but buying back only the amount you sold frees up some capital and the two events leave you with same holding and lower sp avg than you started with and less capital at risk.

If regression doesn’t happen you just ended up with fewer shares and a higher avg.

DYOR make own decisions GLALTH

WTF does a voluntary tender offer mean to all shareholders? Why is this offer made "together with ceske lithium"? How does Geomet fit into this? I thought EMH had already sold out 51% to Geomet? Is this an attempt to grab a further 29% of remaining shares?

This looks awful to me but I don't really know what I'm looking at.

From Krupa website

"Krupa Global Investments is a private firm with a focus on investment opportunistic growth. We implement impactful projects with a so-called activist approach to fix companies that are being mismanaged due to actions of management or majority shareholders. Our goal with this strategy is to achieve significant positive changes in strategy, financial structure or management in a short period of time thus allowing significant stock price increases and thus giving us a strong return on investment. Our vision is to fight for the rights of ordinary shareholders at publicly traded companies. We only select investment opportunities with the potential to appreciate in the tens of percent annually due to their quality and dynamic growth"

$158m NPV / 11bn shares = 1.4 cents per share. Yes Arahim theres really been some hard yard put in on that one.

Don't be disingenuous.

Muel, there's lots of IFs which = lots of risk (IMO).

IRR Calc based on very generous 7% discounted rate,
Life of mine 8,5 years is currently low (unless investor is speculating on JORC expansion later)
OTA not yet formalised (trust in Chinese partner required but no guarantees - mentioned by BA in interviews re: guarantees)
Uncertainty over product value ( investor is speculating on development of tier 1 vs tier 2 pricing structure and supply / demand pinch which I happen to believe will be the base but that is just my opinion)

I could go on - but the in depth work done by other posters when indicating a more conservative restraint than the equation with which I began this post never gets any clapping from Arahim - you will have to decide for yourself why that might be and I offer no comment to that.

Beware confirmation bias and be careful of blindly believing feedback from a preachers, it is in a preacher's interest to maintain as large a congregation as possible.

All these things can be looked up in RNS's, so strictly speaking 1.4cent per share project value with all the attendant downside risks attached as described.

DYOR GLALTH

I’m hoping not to regress further but I don’t expect an increase

You are fortunate to have invested a small amount at an absolute low in a very high risk share.

I'm not sure how much research you've done into this investment. At 350 quid invested it doesn't much matter.

I'm not into these pump and dump pronouncements as they are unhelpful however your statement that good news pushed up the price is not connected to the underlying value of the company ie it could only be sentiment driven.

I've been in since October 2018.

The company issued a statement indicating Mondays rise had no company specific value driver to it which means sentiment. It was a hangover from Fridays rises which was the day the company should have spoken as there were no company specific reasons for those rises.

I'm sure you're quite happy with your average SP and exposure but its a cautionary note that sentiment driven spurious spikes are to be treated with caution. It may be better to post in different tone Danny, comes off a little preachy and maybe overly knowledgeable when its not apparent how much you've looked into the company before making your investment. Maybe worth thinking about.

GLALTH

Buyer beware for sure.

GLALTH

He must have jumped in Sep 2018 and impaled himself on a huge spike. Perhaps he could have picked a better spot or considered averaging down...

Jus be careful Danny, the macro and the fundamentals need to be understood or its just gambling and following the pack. When the pack shifts its investment direction of travel you can find yourself in a sticky spot.

Being in profit in a volatile share may be fleeting or it may stick but in itself it may have little to do with the fundamental valuation of KOD at this point.

Just be careful and don't invest what you cant afford to lose 50% on.

GL

I'm still thinking 2020 for spade in the ground, H2 2021 for limited production but certainly feasible to slip later. The proof in the pudding in that respect will be the 3 year OTA which will give the initial NPV overview.

Anyone who says "game over" with an absolutely fatalistic view causes me to express surprise that they are still invested. Friday spike offered a high of 0.112p at one stage which anyone with such a view could have limited losses vs their previous position within any reasonable sp avg of that spike.

Unless of course the money they have on the table is of no consequence or indeed a contrary view is held at the back of one's mind.

Anyone still holding after Friday has a reason for doing so and I can't believe the reason is simply to watch the remaining value they have evaporate.

Geme over?

Not quite IMO. Some challenges ahead and lets see where we go from here.

I'm holding 92% of the shares I started Friday with. Still a hold for me.

That's to the good BiB we can't push for a faster start and moan about spod value pre demand growth in the same breath.

Still a long way to go and I personally hop Friday's SP movements allowed you to adjust your position in terms of capital exposed per share owned.

GLALTH

funding agreement from riverfort re: monthly payments is predicated on SP, higher SP eans more money for KOD to keep lights on. BA may well have been disincentivised to issue a speeding ticket due to self preservation. Watch for such being issued closer to 5pm.....

wolfie at 440% further to break even you are in a tight spot. I hope you are only exposed for pocket money.

but the next cash is finance not free money so balance sheet will not result in a massive shift. Any shift will be based on sentiment and underlying asset value. I don't know how one makes the leap of ascribing funding to spend on th project into full value of a functioning plant at the flick of a switch.

Remain cautiously optimistic. Today has been a good day but lets not get carried away

Do you mean high nought point sixties? Still a most welcome boost today and I hope it sticks

Damn,

I feel your pain REM. That's painful.

I agree Daz, and feel its been the case for a while. Its no bad thing as IMO is keeps day traders at bay which again IMO is a good thing for any other than those looking to exit on spike and wash their hands of it.

GLALTH

I agree that's what he said therefore my comments in the thread above indicate why this is less than desirable.

My original post does not contradict this or our understanding of KOD current situation and strategy. The fallout of an SC decision to not fund (about which we have no current concrete information beyond BA anecdotal indication to various interviewers that SC have an appetite to fund us) would be significant to the cash burn position required to attract alternative funding.

In the meantime our position remains MLA>>OTA>>Funding

GLALTH

ARahim, I'm sure at recent BA interview that BA intimated that traditional funding would still be an option so I'm going to answer your question with - "according to BA"

Me using your "The strategy here" thread to collate some of my thoughts which if you actually read my post actually reinforces your point in this thread should cause you no great concern unless you feel it is negative of me in some wider sense.

To mix my metaphors it seems by collating my thoughts to "put a stake in the ground" I've somehow managed to "shoot myself in the foot".....

Have a great day.