Member Info for CRK22

Big Auto JV's will imo be less about sharing in profitability and more about recognising the need for speculative investment and partnership with upstream in order to secure lithium chemicals supply through the projected period of deficit in order to avoid losing market share of EV sales to competitors.

GM have made the first significant move and I'm sure others will have to follow suit

The energy contained in a barrel of oil is approximately 5.8 million British thermal units (MBtus) or 1,700 kilowatt-hours (kWh) of energy. This is an approximate measure because different grades of oil have slightly different energy equivalents.

Renault Zoe 40kwh battery circa 2017 cost £6k at the time. 42.5 such batteries required to store and release the energy contained in a single barrel of oil. That's circa £250K hidden infrastructure cost (at least)

0.4kw solar panel dimensions are approximately 1.69m x 1.05m and cost circa £170 each so thats 4250 solar panels needed to do 1 barrel of oil energy an hour so lets say 708 panels for an average generous assumption of 6 peak hrs generation , that's circa another £123k in panels at 1.2 km by 0.74km solar farm dimension.

lets say £373k outlay so far to do 1 barrel of oil per day of 6 hr peak generation and storage

Energy cost of say 34p/kwh doing 1700kwh per day = £578/day sale value of energy which means 645 days of peak generation and storage to reach payback. BTW efficiency really tails off in winter so I reckon easily double that to lets say 4 years to get breakeven on a system designed to move 1 barrel worth of oil energy via sunshine harvest, store and release that's 1.2km wide by 0.7 km long.

Green and clean will never be cheap

CBs share purchases in reverse order

today circa 1.2m at 1.78p
aug 2021 2m at 3.5p
apr 2021 1m at 5.7p
feb 2021 1m at 5.8p

that's 200k invested from pocket

previous to maiden RC hole there were 3 tranches of 0.5m each at circa 1.04p 26,27, 28 Nov 2019

He's a believer, never seen him sell yet.

Chasing all the way down would be the other view

GLA

Seems their gain is our loss? Market seeming to retreat a little from us. Plenty of space in the KCB mind

Section 10 Risks and opportunities

(a) geological prospectivity and the possibility that further exploration may fail to demonstrate
economic mineralisation (in the case of projects without defined Ore Reserves),
(b) geology of the mineral deposits,
(c) estimation of Mineral Resources or Ore Reserves,
(d) operational aspects including the mining/extraction method, dilution and mining
losses, equipment sizing and efficiencies, use of selective mining assumptions, waste
management, meeting regulatory requirements and mine closure,
(e) mineral processing and the variability of metallurgical parameters and wellfield extraction
such as recovery rates, process plant availability and the ability of new processes to be
financed and perform as forecast,
(f) construction, including unforeseen physical conditions or weather or industrial disputes,
which may affect both capital costs and completion date,
(g) provision and adequacy of infrastructure,
(h) commodity price, inflation and exchange rate forecasts,
(i) production of marketable commodities in terms of quality, price and cost of production,
(j) sovereign risk involving social, political, environmental, cultural and security factors that
cannot be controlled by project operators, and
(k) project funding.
A Practitioner should report upon the likelihood of de

Available here for interested parties

https://www.valmin.org/docs/VALMIN_Code_2015_final.pdf

Section 8 is valuation. A few snippets below.

8.1 Basis of Value

"Technical Value is an assessment of a Mineral Asset’s future net economic benefit at the Valuation Date under a set of assumptions
deemed most appropriate by a Practitioner, excluding any premium or discount to account for market considerations. "

"Market Value is the estimated amount (or the cash equivalent of some other consideration) for which the Mineral Asset should
exchange on the date of Valuation between a willing buyer and a willing seller in an arm’s length transaction after appropriate
marketing where the parties had each acted knowledgeably, prudently and without compulsion."

"Market Value may be higher or lower than Technical Value. A Public Report should take such factors into account, stating the results
of the principal Valuation Method(s) used and disclosing the amount of and reasons for the difference between the Market Value and
Technical Value."

8.2 Common Valuation Approaches

(a) Market-based, which is based primarily on the notion of substitution. In this Valuation Approach the Mineral Asset
being valued is compared with the transaction value of similar Mineral Assets under similar time and circumstance
on an open market.

(c) Cost-based, which is based on the notion of cost contribution to Value. In this Valuation Approach the costs incurred
on the Mineral Asset are the basis of analysis.

Income based clearly will not apply so I didn't snip that

"A Practitioner must make use of Valuation Methods that are suitable for the Mineral Assets under consideration. Selection of an
appropriate Valuation Method will depend on such factors as the:
(a) nature of the Valuation;
(b) development status of the Mineral Assets; and
(c) extent and reliability of available information."

.4. In Situ Values
"Consistent with the JORC Code, in ground (in situ) values must not be reported in a Public Report."

IMPORTANT - it's useless for us to be assuming a POC and multiplying by an in situ tonnage and factoring down. That won't fly and won't be used and any alignment with a final price is likely to be coincidental

WRT Parkey post

"They are actually hitting gold where they expected there to be none"

why are they drilling in places where they expect to find no gold - that seems wasteful

wrt the recent RNS imo (FWIW) the grades look nothing to write home about.

Needs better comms and better grades to pick the sp up I think

I’m filing this under “threads that aged poorly and rapidly”

BHP CEO when appointed said he'd move BHP away from O&G which when I looked in Jan indicated a future revenue gap of 40% that needs filling. Only high volume metals fill the bill and as I recall BHP are already nuts deep in iron ore so Iron and Copper look good fit for M&A for them. I also recall an article they'd shifted HQ (or have decided too shift) to Aus so imo a close eye on Lachlan fold high volume potentials I expect will be in their strategy.

Looks like an opportunistic bite at large existing volume which if rebuffed may mean accumulation of more prospective future plays at the cheaper end but even if they end up buying big existing volume producers then the remaining majors have to compete elsewhere.

Copper price low and set to rise.

This imo is good for the macro thesis and whether or not CB can flash BHP some leg its good news for lachlan fold explorers/developers who have high volume prospects

GLA

Also agree with Steve and Joeman, prison rules dictate the big guy gets the top bunk.

2 potential triggers, one party with the option to react to said triggers within a timeframe and some horse trading to be had.

The only muddying of the waters I could think of is if "decision to mine" becomes the trigger and we subsequently sell to a third party evidently having had no intention to mine whatsoever which would mean JV partnerships and whatever that would look like.

All imho of course and wtfdik?

Need RNS on model and contained copper hopefully including company assumption on likely copper price to be used in any economic calculation for future sale then the market will buzz around and sp improvement will be seen as market prices the company and gap to market assumed sp value on final sale reduces. This will provide initial improvement and then only CB negotiation will determine reality. Just gotta wait and see.

Question - what's the risk the majors don't want to add to their land bank at this point? They may just want to sit on their hands

My largest concern is a BCN type situation, the lower this mCap goes the tastier a morsel it begins to look for predators.

This shareholding has been an awful experience

Hot swap requires even more lithium as it requires a store of batteries not in use to also be available hence lithium shortage would be even shorter.

Hot swap is a non starter imo

A bird in the hand vs a CB in the Bush(ranger)

you've stated that in two threads so far. Third time will no doubt be the charm

However I'll engage

Generally agree its not amazing but neither is it disaster its just continuing to define the picture of what we have. Some may sell some shares and some may buy a dip. Personally I'm in hold mode and waiting for lots more news.

GLA

needs to put his big boy pants on and suck it up. Stick,twist or fold its up to him

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;

If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:

If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;

If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with wornout tools:

If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;

If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: 'Hold on!'

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings - nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;

If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run -
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man my son!

exactly that jwoz, big opportunity.

future rerate will be based on market anticipation of future valuation of a deal (either with AA or A.N Other - see what I did there?)

The entire investment thesis at this point is based on the premise that a target will be declared as reached which will trigger discussions then folks calculating final value will see initial rerate based on speculation of what that valuation may settle out at.

Valuation potential has been discussed ad naseum on this BB so not going into that and folks should trawl through previous threads and do some DD

However suffice to say easy mega conservative deal valuation at circa 25p sp vs todays price at 5p can double this sp in 2 days trading no problem at all

This RNS was clearly not what the masses were hoping for but I think they've missed its context in the development of this exploration

Also topped up though not on that scale.

Investment is like riding a rollercoaster, one needs a strong stomach and plenty of 20 pound note to mop up the puke of the folk around you

GLAH and up yours to the uninvested popcorn eaters who need to make comment from the sidelines to get that weird feeling they miss from climbing rope in gym class at high school...

Great discussion wrt Josemaria comparatives here. Very thankful this BB has such knowledgable and detailed contributors.

I had also googled the purchase announcement in which Lundin made mention of the “exploration upside” inherent in the acquisition. This phrase I believe is where the horse trading (pun intended) around Racecourse and Ascot will occur.

Sitting tight and holding tighter GLAH