Member Info for Couerdelion

Doesn't do any harm getting the story out but the "gating" developments that will move the share price are the three pillars (CEOL, PFS, ASX) each of which are required for the price to shift from levels that have no connection to fair value. ASX may be the last in the sequence largely because it's generally not done to raise cash when key news is due.

We are approaching last chance to buy territory and I added a few more in my 2025/26 ISA.

I don't think he's ever picked up on the institutional selling. Full text here-

an Aim-traded mining company that makes money by extracting platinum group metals (PGMs), copper and chrome from mine tailings in South Africa and Zambia, has entered into a lucrative agreement with a South African producer to process its growing chrome tailings (PGM surface stockpiles).

For minimal cost, the company will boost processing capacity by 11,500 PGM ounces (oz), a significant amount in relation to Jubilee’s raised current-year production guidance of 38,000 oz (upgraded from 36,000 oz). Half the earnings from the additional production will be attributable to the company. The agreement is for an initial 12-month term with the option to extend if both parties agree.

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Analysts at brokerage Zeus Capital note that “since commissioning two new chrome processing modules at the Thutse processing centre in South Africa, Jubilee has been processing chrome feedstocks at record rates”. In the nine months to 31 March 2025, chrome concentrate production increased by 11 per cent to 1.43mn tonnes, prompting Jubilee to upgrade full-year chrome production guidance by 12 per cent to 1.85mn tonnes in a third-quarter trading update.

The ramp-up in chrome output has contributed to an increasing PGM surface stock as a byproduct of the chrome operations, which Jubilee recovers profitably at its Inyoni facility. Jubilee’s preference, as indicated previously, is to partner with existing PGM producers to process this excess stock rather than investing further capital to expand the company’s own PGM capacity. In the absence of the agreement, the chrome tailings would continue to accumulate.

Although PGM prices are well down on the highs reached in recent years, Jubilee’s operation is still profitable, and it clearly makes sense to enhance revenue and earnings when the capital cost to the company is minimal. It also highlights that, despite the well documented issues at the company’s Zambia facility, which I detailed in my analysis of the interim results, Jubilee’s South African businesses will make a material contribution to the group result.

Priced on a mid-single-digit multiple of likely annual cash profits to enterprise valuation, and with production guidance on an upward trajectory, I am upgrading my recommendation to buy.

I was wondering whether there might be something brewing. There do seem to be a lot more trades today though not particularly large ones.

Https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/content/78d3f595-0bb8-4685-b342-2f08a67aa776

New agreement to process PGM stockpiles....Upgraded chrome production...

"Priced on a mid-single-digit multiple of likely annual cash profits to enterprise valuation, and with production guidance on an upward trajectory, I am upgrading my recommendation to buy."

Regrettably I let go of a few of these at £10.50. More a case of managing exposures than anything and despite showing a capital loss, I've got all the cheaper shares in the ISA thanks to Trump's perfect timing of tariffs ahead of the new tax year.

ST has moved to a buy recommendation.

If we can assume cash is valued at face value, the SP is applying a discount to the rest of the assets. Think of the discount as reflecting running costs and liquidity. Whereas a dividend simply reduces cash so the SP reduces by the same amount, here they are paying more than current SP so the post-tender SP would be expected to reduce.

I've applied a very simple formula for MV' = MV - 19m and Shares' = Shares - 110m.

Can't say it's a surprise to see the NAV drop. SP looks to have followed it down so we're still trading on a discount of over 25% to NAV. My spidey sense tells me these are looking rather cheap.

Much to like here, particularly management's view of the impact of tariffs. We've taken a bit of a battering in the last few months so about time the markets took this at face value and rerated these shares.

Full disclosure, I'm a little overweight on HTG now.

A positive RNS with a modest upgrade which JLP should beat. Do we know if there are still major sellers about?

If the wisdom of crowd is looking at close to 250p with a drop of marginally above dividend.

Not really conclusive so I will watch and see how this plays out over the week and a bit. If it hovers close to 250p, I might just sell down 20% of my holding to replenish a little ammunition for the next few months.

Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow...

...It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.

Rather fortunately for me, the price was dropping just at the end of the tax year so I opted to include OTB in my ISA this year which means these obscene gains of 30% are all tax free. Felt it was time to trim a little from my non-ISA holdings and no-doubt will find an opportunity to buy back in on some or other shock.

I had to take another slide of profits at these prices. Somewhat regrettably but I am now very light on BAE but it bolsters up the war chest for the next geopolitical shock.

I don't have the in-depth business insight to know the answer to that. Trade reduce so shipping rates are cut, but that's clear for all to see, as would be the hit to asset values. On the other hand, it could make an opportunity to pick up assets at bargain prices given than US trade is not the only game in town.

For me, I'll just stick with the dividend for now at let more knowledgeable investors spot the bargains among the shipping companies.

Not sure I agree with the first part. At least theoretically, the current SP should reflect the tender price and post-tender SP so the SP should fall once the tender offer closes. Something similar happened in SHIP last year and they only purchased 7% of their shares but the price dropped after the record date.

Estimates for when they will receive the initial response from the CEOL can't be included in an RNS because they are not under the control of the company. CTL can only commit to statements that it can be held accountable for.

Yes, it is possible that the Chilean government might take longer but anyone can read between the lines and come up with totally different words to put there. Holders will be less pessimistic (we have ownership bias, after all) while buyers will not like the uncertainty (neither do holders, but our bias comforts us). All I can judge here - being the totally impartial judge - is that the price is lower because of the delay and uncertain timeline but it can turn on a dime when that goes away.

There looks to be good demand now for the shares so if they can come out with the upgraded production estimates for chrome/PGM, all the signs point upwards (albeit with some patience while sellers offload).

I put 150k in my ISA this year, though sold 50k in the GIA largely to manage exposures but also to maintain ammunition for the next Trump pronouncement. I'll say one thing for Trump, I don't think I would have had any chance of buying these at 2.9p on Monday in a tax-exempt vehicle while selling some outside for a capital gains "credit". Allowing for the tax credit, I effectively sold those shares at around 3.15p

Fair enough. For my part, I squirrelled away a few of these in my 2025/26 ISA though recouped around 60% of the costs through selling the ones I bought around two weeks ago in my GIA. Took a bit of time to get the right prices and I was overweight for around 24 hours but target thresholds are only rules of thumb and I have the long term confidence in the company that I don't have any problem being stuck with a few extra shares if Trump were to come out with another brainfart.

I would perhaps consider the target audience of Naked Wines. These are quality wines that WINE will be selling to the comfortably-affluent American rather than the bud-drinking core Trump base. For a comparison, maybe look at MKS and how their shares reacted this week, and you'll perhaps see why WINE will have some level of protection from the trade winds unleashed these last few weeks. The biggest threat may even be from a potential oversupply of better wines if the US finds it has too much but those tend to operate in a very different market and I suspect the high-quality wines from California et.al. would react here by holding back supply rather than flooding the market.

Don't forget to respond to the offer. I've tendered 100% of my holding so will be picking up any spare capacity that isn't taken up. The share price should drop after the closing date for tenders.