Member Info for Couerdelion

I still don't know how many shares of mine will be repurchased. I've only been told I will get paid tomorrow - but not how much.

I should perhaps have done a little research into M&G before my last post. I don't think they are a like-for-like switch with L&G or PHNX as they don't appear to have any serious DC pensions offer which is the area likely to see the most growth over the next decade. I think the different growth prospects is not fully reflecting in the DY-differential.

Maybe my loss. As they say, "a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing"

Armani,

I think you could say the same about many other stocks. My point is that AV has quite different characteristics- certainly less exposed to movement in gilt yields - so doesn't fit quite as neatly as a comparator stock. In contrast, if I were to shift funds from PHNX to MNG or vice versa, I'm not fundamentally changing anything in my portfolio.

AV is the outlier here with a dividend yield of less than 7%. It is also more exposed to the general insurance market which has different business cycles and has reserving requirements which I do not fully understand so cannot properly assess the store of value held in the business. If I were to switch from one of the life insurers here, it would be a bit of a jump in the dark for me and would come at a cost of 2.5% annual income so I would need a more compelling reason than a simple comparison of recent price moves.

M&G is certainly one I will put on my watchlist. I'd be getting nearly 0.6% higher dividend anyway so will have a little compensation for any switch. But right now, I'm happy just switching from cash to equity when the yield is higher or lower. As it is, I have a sizeable enough PHNX holding through historic employee share plans held in a separate account so might consider using some of that to fund a modest M&G holding, particularly if that yield differential were to widen to, say 1%.

I see from the Times yesterday that Sarah J Maas suddenly shot to No.1 in the paperback charts. Also occupied 3rd thru 6th

Strictly, I imagine it might be possible to trade between the three dividend payers profitably though I would be wary of making wholesale shifts from one stock to the others for fear of missing some of the individual company moves - for example the 17/03/25 jump in PHNX. Also worth recognising the M&G and L&G both have sizeable asset management arms suggesting there may be other factors clouding the comparison of their respective dividend yields.

There is room for the shares to drift higher if the market were to view these differently but as an income stock it will always tend to be held back by interest rates to some extent. While it does we can treat it as a premium rate interest stock and collect our 9% dividend with perhaps a few more % of capital gains each year. Ideal too for holding in an ISA or SIPP where the dividends aren't taxable so you can fairly reliably double your money every eight years.

Relative to yields, this is probably as high a valuation as I can recall for PHNX.

Investor meet next Tuesday at 5pm. Any concerned investors would be well advised to watch this.

Correct, the tax impacts were discussed about a page back so nothing gained by repeating this here. Outside a tax wrapper it gets a little more interesting since there are different rates of tax for CGT and Dividends with the simple rule that those on basic rate prefer dividends while those on higher or additional rate favouring CGT - the numbers changed since that conversation in September.

Perhaps more important is not the drop on dividend day - safest to assume it will be c£490p as this will be a simple cashflow amount from company to shareholder. More relevant perhaps is the post-div SP and I made some estimate back in September that 364p was not overly optimistic.

The calculations for the different returns for dividends and CGT are relatively simple and each investor will need to work out for themselves if they believe they would be better off taking in as CGT given the different tax rates. There will be a lot of additional rate tax payers who I imagine will be looking to take capital gains before buying back at the ex-div price.

Plenty of room for optimism now that we appear to have broken the 270 resistance level. A lot will depend on the interim results in just over a week but if these are strong there is no reason why the shares can't step up yet another level. We might even speculate from the price movements that this will be the case.

GLA

There seems to be some dissent here on how profit is made on shares and I think it opens a fairly big divide on how different SH's operate here. Price is the primary feature for traders but is almost irrelevant for those seeking dividend income- not that you will find many here. For the value- or growth-investor the SP is only relevant as the price to invest and can be patient and hold through temporary SP dips.

If you are ambivalent about the share price, it not entirely clear why you would worry about where it might be this week or next. But claiming that value only materialises when you buy or sell is a nonsensical claim - I bought my flat over 30 years ago and no-one on this board is going to convince me it is still worth around £55k. Share prices will fluctuate and we will be left with a combination of unrealised gains and losses but to believe that they are the same is bad economics and will more than likely encourage you to hold onto poor assets in the vain hope that they will suddenly recover their past heights.

Full disclosure - I am sitting on a number of holdings with sizeable capital losses (collectively in excess of my holdings with gains)

Fforest, I picked a re-entry point more than anything and was fortunate with the SP movements today to bring my weighting to neutral at a price that allowed me to pick up a few bonus shares. I came with a small bonus that I could also defer nearly all of the CGT on my earlier sale (through B&B tax rules) so my average PP is still just 300.

Decided to buy back in today - more nervous about being underweight in the run up to results than the cyberattack. The price move since I sold represents around £300m of market value which can cover a lot of damage.

The moment of truth has arrived....

I'm still waiting to find out from AJ Bell and fired off a request yesterday. Would like to buy back in a bit before but prefer to know beforehand what my current net position is.

Hopefully this was all part of the business plan. I'm all for product development and improvement so I won't talk that down but I had rather hoped that they would focus first on achieving "cash positive" trading after which it becomes a reinvestment decision rather than running down capital.

We are clearly in a strong position but the real break out news will be that the business has become breakeven.

I can let you know my vote on that now if it helps.

I'm considering doing similar - just replace "shorting" with "holding underweight position".

Not sure what's driving the price here. 10% increase on a fairly modest volume of trades.

Alas, you've picked a bargain price IMV