Member Info for Couerdelion

No idea what's happening here. Just picked up another few shares for £11.40

Expectation for EPS to be in the 90-95p range. Give that a very modest PE multiple of 16, and this is worth 1440-1520p.

Personally I think this should be trading at multiples of 20+.

Pondering putting a few funds this way but wanted to check what the expected annual dividend will be here. Given the reduction in the last dividend, does this mean we should expect an annual dividend of 4.5c rather than the 6.75c showing here

It was a bit of a promotion but it wasn't 100% positive - eg the health benefits. I thought they went a bit too heavy on the "orfentic working clarss" tag which only takes you so far here.

One of these days I might even try buying something from Greggs just to test it. But McDonald's is still on my embargo list so no danger of me going their instead.

The investment side has two strands - infrastructure and venture-capital type investments. The first will be used primarily on the DB business (BPAs and annuities) and will flow through the results as higher margins on that business - although some of this will feed into lower prices for customers. The second would fit more naturally with the master trust business (DC in industry terminology) which may flow through margins - costs will be higher.

Not really enough to move the dial here I think until we see higher margins.

As for £8 per share, this is a pipe-dream. With a dividend yield of less than 7% it is far too close to gilt yields and would need yields to fall substantially before it becomes even remotely possible.

I'd prepare here for a slow-burn of 9% dividend yield to make your return here.

I don't trade this stock. If I did I would have fired myself for poor performance this last year.

Interesting after hours trading going on here...

I've got a response but whether it clarifies things is something else. A lot of the detail is in the accounts but these are on a consolidated basis so perhaps not all that useful for shareholders looking at movements and company performance. p27 of the form 10-Q provides a consolidated movement in Level 3 assets (we can assume these are the capital provision assets) but these are not Burford Only.

As for what belongs to the shareholders or what has been generated over the quarter, this is the answer I received.

"In our investor presentation on slide 13, in the table at the top we are showing the mix of realized and unrealized capital provision income on a Burford-only basis, including the breakout of the YPF-related assets within that. At the bottom of the slide, again on a Burford-only basis the bridge is showing the composition of the evolution of fair value during 1Q25. As to the progression of ongoing capital provision assets, it was a slow quarter with only $1m of net unrealized gains coming from legal case milestones and other model impacts."

That last sentence appears to conflict with other statements in the presentation (ie one case settled early for a 40%+ IRR) so I am more inclined to suspect that the $1m is just a balancing item rather being attributable to any performance or actions. It's more likely that the unwind and "change in discount rate" elements of the waterfall which are slightly artificial and unrelated to what the business has actually achieved. FWIW, my guess is that the $1m is a variance over expected item.

Happy to be educated if I am wrong.

If it is a £700m hit to profit, we are talking 35p per share. The SP hit to date covers something like twice that.

As much as we can perhaps be cheered at the reduced selling, the sustained SP levels at around 3p will leave some overhang from other investors, including me, who have stretched their exposures at these lower rates and will look to pare these back as the SP recovers. You still need buyers to keep the price rising but with this SP trajectory, I am among the sellers. I took around £300 profit today to offset the ISA investment I made at the bargain basement price of 2.9p in early April and plan to fully recoup that investment before the SP reaches 4p. Today's sale earned me a c20% return over 5 weeks which is a return that you can't get from a long-term holding.

I don't think I would be alone in seeking to sell some of my holding as the stock rises and with 3bn shares in circulation, even a small percentage of that will create plenty of profit-taking opportunity that will put some sort of ceiling on where the SP can move without some tangible results or production figures.

"Long term investment" is just another way of saying "jam tomorrow". If investments are realised to cover costs, the investors are out of the equation and this is why the shares trade at such a large discount to the underlying NAV. Short of any company specific news accounting for the rise in SP of the underlying investment, I would speculate that a lot of these are rising simply because their funding position is improved when their primary investor is likely to generate some significant income which may, in turn, be reinvested in those companies - and therefore less chance that they might need to raise capital.

MCap of SALT increased by around £5m; that of TEK rose c£1m. There's something illogical in that but I'll leave you to imagine why that is.

I took some profits at 617.5p but I'm not claiming any responsibility for the subsequent drop. The SP will see-saw from time to time and I have every intention of buying back when, and if, the price reaches the right level. My guess is that, some time before the next dividend, this will have approached 560-570 and I will get the chance to back.

"If you ask me we were on the wrong side during WW1 and WW2 "

There was no-one asking. And now they know your answer, I can't see any sane person doing it now. As a comment relating to sensible negotiations that would bring UK manufacturing into the EU-wide procurement process, I struggle to see how you can react so offensively.

But the reference to the two world wars does at least raise the subject of growing threats of major conflict for which we should be prepared. You just let yourself down with the rest of the message.

Deutsche Bank Research cuts Playtech price target to 417 (903) pence - 'buy'

Good time for a little top-up methinks.

Having invested here first in March 2024 (SP at 182.5) , I thought I would run the rule over performance. Initially it was only intended for ISA investment but I now hold shares both in the ISA and in my GIA. Over the period of 14 months in which the SP has fallen nearly 25%, my IRR is 9.8%.

Obviously this is more favourable point to make the measurement but there's minimal trading activity. Beyond dividend reinvestment I purchased shares in my GIA (destined for the ISA) around two weeks earlier than the new tax year made a small gain between buying in ISA and selling outside (shares which I subsequently repurchased in the GIA).

I could probably work out the returns from trading activities from a more passive approach but I hope this illustrates that the high dividend yield goes a long way to cover capital losses.

Spitfire, can you show your workings for the £5.15 target price?

Nick Dashwood Brown is taking part in an AJ Bell organised event near Tower Bridge on 20 May.

The deadline for the offer is 5pm on 20 May.

This could be interesteing

A merger with ENQ?!!! Would those be new discussions less than a week after ENQ announced that they were not going to make an offer?

I'm astounded at the price move today. It would make sense if there were investors rushing in who were less keen on dividends and who had sold prior to the ex-div date but how would we then account for the 30-day run prior to the ex-div date that saw the SP rise over £1