Member Info for Couerdelion

But I think we need a box where people can go to rant and rave about trivial matters. This has to be one of the most argumentative boards out there and it doesn't matter what direction the SP is moving.

Sometimes it's OK just to be happy.

The good news here is that the market is finally taking note.

The difference is in the $13m Adjusting items - can't see what is here but I imagine there are some acquisition costs and other acquisition related effects. Something perhaps for the investor presentation.

I think we knew that the sales order book would decline as the Kuwait projects were due to be completed.

Nearly half of the share buyback in one day. Now 85% complete.

Lots of positives here. I can't see how the markets won't love these results.

I'm guessing a lot of this is already in the current price but interested to see how other shares performed after the announcement. The 4 exits in June were THG, MCG, FXPO and BBH but there was little I could draw from this sample and no doubt there were matters specific to each company that led to the SP progression over the subsequent 3 months.

First the good news: over the subsequent 3 month period, 3 of these companies outperformed the FTSE100 (5.3%) comfortably with THG, FXPO and MCG gaining 22.2%, 21.9% and 14.6% while BBH suffered a further drop of 4.5%. If anything the impending relegation is not only priced-in but it is overpriced-in.

The timing of the rises differed. THG suffered an early dip in the week after the announcement but was up strongly (8.6%) before it took effect on 23 June and after 3 weeks was up over a third - it has since shed some of that.

Mobico spent a further month in the doldrums before recovering strongly in mid-July while Ferrexpo had to wait for two month before it saw any rebound. BBH was the one share that saw no effect from the news of relegation but they have since slowly drifted down.

Caveats as always this is a trivial sample and there weren't any obvious conclusions to be drawn other than the news is probably not going to have much short term impact on the price beyond a week or so.

I've signed up for around a third of my current holding.

Yes, softly softly catchy monkey. There's a good chance we'll be in three figures by the middle of next month.

There's still plenty of upside left after that but I wouldn't blame people for taking a bit of profit before.

Solid set of results with a 17% increase in EPS over previous HY1, what's not to like?

For illustrative purposes. Even a fairly modest valuation of $50m on Guident would push the TEK SP up to 10p if it were to maintain the current 65% discount to NAV.

As to the likelihood based on the history, well I'd presume TEK has never been in a situation where it has been awash with cash and few investment opportunities - in fact it has quite frequently had to raise funds for all sorts of sundry costs - so the circumstances in which distributions would be appropriate have never arisen. So yes history would suggest this would happen again only I think the history will be different this time (no need to point out how frequently this phrase has been used before)

Xhita,

Do you mean BAE or IAG? The latter is an airline, the former is a defence manufacturer.

It would be interesting to find out but I think the main catalyst now will be news of new contracts. Not that it won't be good to see continued momentum in the SP from trading but it would be a lot more secure if it were backed up by evidence of continued improvements in revenue generation.

I think it safe to assume that TEK will gain a significant amount of cash at IPO and still see a sizeable NAV increase from the revaluation of the holding. Hypothetically, if it were to release funds equal to its original investment (including loan notes) and used just half of this in a share buyback, that's worth nearly 50% of current MCap so you'd see a huge uptick in the SP from the original NAV increase, the additional cash, and the increased NAV/share generated from the share buyback. Conservatively, we might see the SP at double current levels.

All very hypothetical of course and just one of many plausible scenarios. It illustrates, I hope, that we need some triggers before the SP can really move. The IPO itself should contribute a fair bit but the distributions are what are needed to allow the SP to fly.

By my calculations (at cop Thursday), we've completed 36% of the buyback and bought back 1.2% of the issued share capital. SP rose around 9p over that period.

We've had this discussion before. That statement from the website has been there a long time yet to date all proceeds have gone towards costs. The point being that it is merely a statement of intent rather than a specific plan and so it might be optimistic to assume that a huge pile of money will suddenly appear and get distributed to investors.

Of course there is the possibility that Guident will IPO to a valuation in excess of $100m and that TEK will sell enough to largely recoup it's original investment while retaining a sizeable stake. If this were to be the case, the next question is what it wants to do with the cash (invest, working capital, distibuted), all of which would be in line with the stated strategy.

By all means make assumptions but don't think of them as anything better than a guess at this stage. Until we get details of the resources and what they plan to do with them, this is still a stock you can only value as a % of NAV in the anticipation that a decent share of the returns on NAV will flow back to investors.

Well I certainly missed that but it's clear the market didn't - always important that at least one of us is awake.

For me the shares are trading in a bit of a no-man's land and about time they started moving up again.

It is still a legitimate challenge. TEK typically trades at an MCap lower than the MCap of its share of SALT.

Maybe present the scenarios in terms of NAV or NAV per share. and maybe the implied discount to NAV using the current TEK SP. Investors can then make their own view what sort of discount they think is "fair value".

Do we have any background on Harwood Capital LLP? Would be interesting to find out a little bit more, even if they currently only own 4.5% of the business.

Is anyone else planning on going to the EGM?

...and a decent sized one too.