Member Info for Confounded

This is the budget report, some may have seen it, but page 35 is of interest to us. https://www.finance.gov.tt/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/revised-BUDGET-STATEMENT-2018-BOOKLET-faw1.pdf

Just looking at the trades on the day the sale was announced on the 11th Aug and the previous close price was a midpoint of 11.625 (ignoring a 10.75 bizzare 9 UT at the end of the 10th Aug) and on the day of the announcement we closed down at 10.75p. So depending if you want to take the UT into account the sale resulted in a 10% drop, or flat. So the market (if you trust it and I don�t with the Aug 10th UT illustrating why not) then it did not like the sale.

Hi GO , totally agree with that analysis and sentiment. For long term holders this is a blip. From a chart point of view having dropped to the 16p range it did look like 15p was a possibility, today�s news simply gave the excuse for that move. Who knows the next move it may be lower it could be just an intra day low with T&T making an announcement about the new tax reigime this afternoon. That is the thing it could come at any time and although it may not be the bloackbust we hope for (someone was speculating on ADVFN the new tax reigime may only apply to new wells) it will still be better than now and will give the market certainty.

There will be plenty at the presentations that will have been hoping for a day like today.

Hardly. 16.5p to buy, as I expected more people looking for an entry than those looking for an exit. The West Coast will be profitable at $58, we may even be able to sell it for more now... also 3000 bopd will be hit much sooner if not already. So people will have different views on the news but as a LTH is is not significant either way.

I was just playing with the oil numbers and given in the presentation Bruce said the current demand for oil means there is no discount being applied to WTI and the fact most of our oil is onshore with a SPT of 18% the current equivalent oil price is much better than I was thinking and puts us in a very profitable territory. Has anyone else tried to estimate our current equivalent oil price with SPT in place? As GO was pushing last week always best to factor in worse case scenario regarding SPT. However like you CRL, with the announcement in the budget politically it is very hard for them not to push ahead with reform, they would lose a huge amount of face amongst the oil operators and would send the industry into further decline. As we have discussed a good reform could be win win win, makes so much sense to get it through. Hopefully any day now.

Mhow, yes a favourable tax reform should see us in the 20�s if not the 30�s. I can�t see any institutions buying in until things are clearer on that front. I would hope T&T don�t drag this out until the end of the year. Does anyone know if it would have to be voted on by parliament to bring it into effect?

We are pretty much flat on yesterday, we just had a strange 1 share uncrossing trade last night to close at 18p. Just MM mucking around while we wait on the tax reform.

Great Spreadsheet GO and good to see such a succinct sumarry, and that it confirms my view that we are still offering tremdous value at these level with the SPT in place, ideally oil in the 60�s in the coming weeks. Howerever if we do get the overhaul promised the spreadsheet will come in handy to verify the new reigime. It may make TRIN look substantially undervalued. Few shares can offer such limited downside with such huge upside.

If you have not listened to it yet I think you will find this presentation interesting. http://www.valuethemarkets.com/index.php/2017/10/19/exclusive-touchstone-exploration-ceo-paul-baay-presents-shareholders-txp/ Starting at 23:30 there is a question about the tax, later in his answer I think he was about to say we are hearing for sure, but he pulled back. May be just me reading too much into it. Either way he has a good perspective on it.

Don�t take anyone�s advice on here as to when to sell. You have seen how twitchy GO is regarding the SPT, they are sensible concerns as it is a terrible tax and one I failed to understand when first investing in TRIN in 2014... but equally the reform to the SPT could be announced any day as it is promised before the end of the year. I posted this to GO on a ADVFN and again don�t take it as advice in terms of valuations, just my view and why I am holding. Wingspan, you seem very twitchy about SPT, we take your point. My view is TRIN is still undervalued with the current tax reigime in place. Should the reform be announced and be favourable, I see valuations multiple from here going into next year. You saw Bruce in the presentation, he is very cautious and not one to hype things. I take a lot of comfort in his statement below, it seem to be more about a what not an if. We have a menmber of our board sitting on the consultation panel. We also had TXPs CEO seeming to let it slip that they are being told for sure it will happen this time. I continue to hold regardless of the outcome. �Bruce A. I. Dingwall CBE, Executive Chairman of Trinity, commented: "This could prove to be an extremely important change for the Company in terms of bottom line economics and Company valuation. The Government is aligned with Trinity in seeking to increase oil production and once the terms of the changes to SPT are clear we will then be in a position to quantify what the effect on the Company will be.�

Weisy, do you have any examples of where a share just beat an earlier recent high but then did not go on to make a significantly higher high? Chart still seems poised to make a decent move into the 20�s to me and I can�t think of any chart set up like TRIN that failed to deliver. 0.2% of stock traded and we drop 8%, the volatility in TRINS chart/trading is actually beneficial for generating a larger move up when it comes.

Could just be TRIN volatility, that is our friend as if we can move 10% on no news then 100% is possible with the right news. Pretty awful deramping on ADVFN, nice and civilised here.

Could be WTI has dropped to $55, it could be another short term raid to help facilitate buying interest after the presentations, it could be insider information regarding the TAX reforms but I am a holder after yesterday update.

An Army of derampers on ADVFN trying to scare out the recent buyers and less informed. Pretending no one knows about the convertible loans and how it is an elephant in the room. Some posters/derampers were using the same arguments when we were at 10p.....

$13.5 million in renegotiated government tax, two payments of $1.35m each already done.

Good to see below. It is where I was hoping we would be by this stage. Hopefully 3000bopd by December but will need to strip out West Coast which keep us flat for the QRT but should able to build cash balance to somwhere around $17m. �Further profitable production growth achieved since the quarter end, with an average production rate of 2,754 bopd recorded in October 2017�

httP://newsday.co.tt/2017/11/05/new-tenders-for-oil-and-gas-drilling-acreage-soon/ Will be interesting to see if anything takes TRINS fancy, it is one of the bonus possible news I am hoping for for TRIN.

Yes Weissy, still looks very good to me and is why I can�t trade Trin at this level, potential for the next step up is always potentially days away.

Yet they paint the picture we are down 7%, could be news very imminent.