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Natural gas in the US has had the biggest drawdown in US history. I think next weeks Oil report is going to be an interesting one.

On the bright side a more interesting chart to look at, much better than the normal flat line.

On the move again this strength does make me feel news can�t be far off. Never seen TRIN so volatile intra day. Much higher volume than we have been having.

I am still optimistic about reform and think there will be more to it than a simple SPT adjustment, so I believe it will be worth the wait. I am wondering if the pick up in TRIN is due to some of the recent meeting in T&T. See below an article regalrding Petrotrin. http://www.guardian.co.tt/news/2018-01-03/govt-gets-report-petrotrin�s-future �A decision has not yet been made on what form that restructuring will take but Rowley is expected give some details when he addresses the nation on Sunday evening. The board�s report was handed over during a meeting at the Office of the Prime Minister which was attended by Energy Minister Franklin Khan, Minister in the Ministry of Finance Allyson West, Public Utilities Minister Robert Le Hunte and Planning Minister Camille Robinson-Regis. Discussions focused on options available for restructuring the wholly state-owned company.�

I am not a subscriber but this article looks to be highlighting the issue of low production. http://www.guardian.co.tt/business-guardian/2018-01-04/2018-different This is the google preview �We are still heavily dependent on oil and gas, we are still not diversifying the economy. Nothing is happening. I do not envision that any significant changes in terms of the basic economic scenario.� She said even if oil prices rebound, T&T still has the challenges of production being low. She also hopes that ...�

First snow in Florida for 28 years and the models predict worse to come. Models are now showing warming in 10 days so there are signs of a thaw.

$61 taken, should move on to $62-63, from a technical point of view it could consolidate around there, however oil is volatile (excuse pun) and with any disruption $70-80 would soon be hit. Also a big draw due to cold weather could really shake things up.

Yes and colder weather by Thursday next week with fost in Florida, models looking very cold in the coming weeks for US, inventories going to take a hit with US exporting increasing atm also.

About the general administration but pretty much sums it up after their second missed self imposed deadline of the year.... http://newsday.co.tt/2017/12/30/charles-govt-fails-in-foreign-affairs/ “Finance Minister Colm Imbert, AG Faris Al-Rawi, and Foreign and Caricom Affairs Minister Dennis Moses should hold their heads in collective shame,” Charles said. “This lethargy, lack of political will, sheer laziness, shamelessness, ineptitude, and massive incompetence have disturbingly come to characterise this Keith Rowley administration with no discernible plan to take us forward.”

Simple answer yes. If the sector rotation occurs as it looks to be and oil becomes in fasion from this low base 45p could arrive a lot soooner than people think. We need oil in the 70’s, we need SPT overhaul and possible drilling incentives, but all of those thing are not long shots. If nothing happens other than strengthening oil the we should easily get in the 30’s this year as debt is paid off. I personally have been in oil shares that went up 4 times in 4 weeks where I sold out. They went up 7 times in 10 weeks in the end. Prospects where not as good as here. Just for fun look at these non oil stock that had a good Santa rally. VRS 15p to 80p in 3 weeks, PYC 1p to 30p in 1 week (intra day spike to 30p). They are blue sky stocks with hot money chasing them but hot money may end up here if we get a few oil scare stories. To have a 14p base and the prospects here we have, there is huge opportunities and a MCAP of £150m with a share price of 60p is not fanciful. When it happens it could even be just fair value and not frothy as shares get when you make the best gains. That is what I am holding for and quite happy if nothing spectacular happens, imho that is the beauty of TRIN, small downside large upside.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcollins/2017/12/29/oil-is-the-new-nasdaq-for-2018/#40cc822660ae Sector rotation will change the outlook here as it ripples through the market. It has been slow coming and many are still missing the bigger picture and focusing on the US but there should be many more articles like this in 2018.

Page 11 of the September investment presentation has onshore as $16. I believe TRINs average is $30 including G&A so plenty of profit at current oil prices and SPT. CERPS investors are only interested in the share price in pence, they don't seem very interested in details such as MCAPs and financials....

CRL, I will be here when people will not believe you when you tell them you bought some at 1.8p! Have a great holiday.

Thanks GO for yet another excellent post. I agree things will be clearer in early spring. One of our hedges expires and hopefully we will have paid off the remainder of the debt. I also agree that change will come, why import oil to fulfill your underutilized refinary/petrochemicals industry when you have such vast and accessible local reserves? Have a great remainder of the holidays.

We have about $200m of tax loss shielding. The last update we only had $7m of debt end Oct and we have another qrt gone, with the management accelerating the payback we may be under/around $5m now.

I know you sing off the same hyme sheet so not claiming glory as I know you targeted it also, just pleased it hit my end of the year target which was very tight. Let’s hope the rest of the pieces fall in place early next year. Things are looking much more bullish for oil going forward than in my belief it was negative in 2015/2016.

WTI has taken $60, so at least one prediction of mine was right, on the last possible day though..... with tax reform and $60 WTI I think my other prediction of 25p by Feb would have been hit also by now. Shame Imbert has proven to be a typical politician, despite having a background that suggested he could see the bigger picture and think beyond 3 months. Anyway reform may come early next year and as TXP ceo has said next possible time is 22nd of Jan during the big oil and gas convention, I still remain hopeful they will deliver what overall will benefit them as much as the oil and gas companies.

I think the beauty of TRIN as a genuine investment rather than the normal AIM punt is we are no longer beholden to anyone. We are sufficiently hedged to pay down the last of the debt. We can drill if the economics make sense, we can focus on cheaply extracting more from exisitng wells. I am sure we did not propose drilling new wells in 2017 as the guidance was the new tax regime was coming and would be in place by the end of the year. Hence 1st qrt 2018 plans. If this guidance proves to be wrong I have no problem with management reassessing things, however onshore and current oil price even with SPT in place the payback is excellent.

Sadly not, I have to wait for the new year banking system to clear funds... just hope Imbert continues his current woeful performance.

If things continue as they have been for the company overpaying debt and and growing production (2850 bopd now ?), and if oil does what I think it will do this year (seriously surprise to the upside, I read something yesterday that stated the oil industry only discovered 11% of new oil reserves to replace what we consumed this year......) there will not be another chance like this for them to do it.