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@ekxoc, the government have already hinted the vaccine will be tracked using statistical analysis rather than widespread antibody testing, the market for a yes/no antibody test for professional use is very much limited

@mafioso, imv the company’s antibody portfolio is next to worthless, ELISA has been £1m white elephant that we should put behind us as soon as possible and stop flogging the dead horse, Visitect antibody test has all but disappeared in favor of the AbC test, which without home use approval has limited market value, CD4 wont go anywhere until covid is under control, food intolerance market in china is expected to increase but unknown when and if. Antigen testing is key for the company now.

We need to remember the diagnostics industry has exploded in the last 18month, no longer can ODX sit back and wait for customers to come to them, unfortunately the sales arm of the company seems to be lacking at the moment, and with the number of competitors in the market at present they need to address this straight away.

@sensetalka, the thread is about uncertainty into H2, and the apparent lack of urgency with ODX, if Roche can’t predict demand in H2 what chance anyone else, all we know is lft is in demand whilst we are in lockdown, with the vaccine rollout and gradual unlocking nothing is known for certain, we can all look to make educated guesses, but they are only guesses, Roche are not confident enough for the outlook in H2 in order to include any figures in their market outlook

Well they are only the third largest pharma in the world, what would they know?

I think @1965Kevin’s point was that Roche have assumed limited sales in the second half of 2021, means not even they know the likely market associated with covid in that period, whilst they expect large demand in h1, and emphasis on getting our product into the market asap, to take advantage of the known demand in H1

Like other companies involved in COVID-19 testing, Roche expects its diagnostics division to make a strong start to 2021. The picture could change in the second half of the year as vaccines reduce the need for testing and Roche’s quarterly results are compared to its COVID-19-enhanced performance from late in 2020.

https://www.medtechdive.com/news/roche-q4-revenue-jump-fueled-by-covid-19-demand/594541/

“I think the first half year is very clear. This is where we have most of our ... COVID sales for 2021. And then in the second half year, we'll see how certain things develop,” Schinecker said. Schinecker said Roche’s decision to assume limited COVID-19 sales in the second half of the year creates the potential for upside if demand continues.

@TakingIteasy, Don't get me wrong I don't like the fact we are forced to use Innova tests at the moment, but what option do they have, I am sure they are reluctant to spend more on the Innova supply but dont have an option at present, ODX have given a time line of early in the year, What does that mean, no one knows apart from Colin, The government cant plan on that basis. The innova test is being purchased "ex works" which basically means the factory a churning out as many as they can and its the customers responsibility to get them from the factory gates, but without a firm alternative supply chain then thats what governments across the world are forced to do. We hope this will change but without the test available for sales we aren't a viable alternative at the moment, that should change, as soon as we have a test to sell i will be the first to query any further foreign sales contracts.

Before we continue with the berating of the Westminster or Scottish governments for continuing to roll out the innova test, lets remember they don't have the option to by from us at the moment, are you suggesting they do nothing until ODX have a test, whenever that be ?

@velastic, no its not our test, we dont have one to sell at the moment, This highlights the issue with being behind the curve, its not just the tests that need to be produced in order to facilitate the rollout, there is communication, instructions, reporting, The slightest difference between our test and the look, or operation of the innova test, means there is a major blocker to dislodging them in the market.

@SimonShares, I have always said that Antigen sales should push us back to £1, after holding since May, supporting them in the placing and more since I think i'll hold on and see what unfolds when the antigen test is available.

Lets not deny that ODX have missed some golden opportunities in the last year though, The issue as I see it is they can manufacture but don't have the sales team to back it up, hopefully the demand for Antigen tests will wash over that shortcomming but we wait to find out

@lovejoy22

What we do know is there are no orders that the company have deemed to have a share price impact, they are committed and obliged to update the market if they are received.

@Ton1C

Elisa No
AbC maybe a few thousand a month going forward
Visitect Antibody = No (basically all but withdrawn already)
CD4 yes but not until Covid is resolved
Food Intolerance yes but no major increase in revenue impact

Mologic Antigen, Should be massive, but the longer we take with Tech transfer the more diminished that opportunity.

Covid really should have been the making of ODX, it should have set us up for the next decade, i cant see that happening in any big way.

"These things take time. ODX are following through with their plan. Bit more patience and you will be rewarded I feel"

I truly hope so, lets remember they raised £11M in July last year in order to "exploit opportunities the Company currently has with COVID-19 testing", currently we don't see much exploitation, just one open goal missed after another, £3M allocated for Scale up of LFT capacity by April we expect to have the capacity, will we have any orders?

Frustration unfortunately sums up ODX at the moment, as i have said before so much promise but so little delivery.

I think Colin is in danger of becoming the VW Man (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wBUYG6_YMI&ab_channel=RadekWiglasz), but i'm not sure he even drives a VW.

"I find that odd... given that ODX won't be selling the AbC19 test directly and CIGA has been taking pre-orders for the test, on behalf of the UK-RTC since October"

I quote: (26th January)

"Apologies for the slight delay in responding to you regarding the enquiry for antibody lateral flow tests, though there is a very valid reason for doing so as I will explain below.
We are in the process of setting up a sales channel for the AbC-19 test (RTC test) which I think would be a better option. If it is ok, please give me a short time to get this set up with Abingdon and I can then revert."

"Possibly something to do with DHSC having control over sales to third parties", They had first refusal control, but are you really saying that if the UK-RTC has secured a sales contract elsewhere the DHSC would have denied them the opportunity to supply even when they didn't want them, as we have now discovered, Who in their right mind would agree to a contract like that, Can you see that as supporting UK manufacturing ?

"Taking professional pre-orders for months", well the feedback i had from Jag Grewal just over a week ago, was they were still working on a sales process for professionals to purchase the AbC Test with ABDX, I assume this is the result of that work.

Makes you wonder why these tests weren't offered to professionals before (considering the fundamentals of the UK-RTC contract haven't changed until the 14th). Clearly up until the recent confirmation of no more contracts being issued they were still expecting to secure orders through that route.

Unfortunately doesn't look like this will be a major revenue stream for us.

The £912M tender is a framework tender under which multiple supply contracts will be issued, so not having a test to sell at the moment does not mean we cant secure sales under this tender, but as with anything its never easy to dislodge existing suppliers so the sooner we get the test available the better.

@Lovejoy22

It is clearly stated the government want to grow the country's diagnostics industry (The have already invested in GAD and Surescreen by way of reimbursement of manufacturing costs). Again we have uncertainty with ODX, have we seen no link to government because there isn't one, or is it because we have not taken government support in the production ramp up in the expectation of selling at a higher premium?

The problem with lack of confirmed news from ODX, is that we are in the middle of a pandemic, wherever we look is news of testing testing testing, you simply cant get away from it, its not like other sectors that you need to actively go out of your way to get updates. The frustration is therefore multiplied as the question always comes back to is, why aren't we selling our product into such a demanding market, for me ODX should now (and should have previously) included an expected timeline for TT completing, in terms of Q4-2020, Q1-2021 etc, not the earlier in the year statement that is open to interpretation depending what your views are, is 10 weeks longer than the company expected or inline with expectation, we can only speculate without confirmed timeframes we are working to.

Early to market is key in any business, not sure it is Colin's approach, he surely has a plan (we hope) that he is sticking to, I just would like him to shares some timelines he is working to, so we can judge on reality rather than speculation.
Don't get me wrong , no one wants daily updates as to what spanner the engineer is using, but we should be able to understand whether we are on track or not.