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I never said the price has been walked down by the BOD... small cap, horrendous trading environment, think it will have been easy enough for it to be manipulated down by others.

Only qn to my mind is who, and at what price.

My guess is buyout, but at a price that's going to leave many people at a significant loss. 50% premium from here only gets you to 25p. Price may have been walked down to screw PIs over, we'll find out next week presumably...

Pros: science looks good, meeting significant clinical need, BOD remain heavily invested.

Cons: funding needs to be addressed, probably at a low SP, wider market sentiment, still nothing at P3 and it could be a long time before anything reaches commercialization, lack of IIs etc.

I derisked a while ago following the BOD gifting a load of options, but I still retain a fairly significant holding on which I've no plans to sell up.

The day to day and week to week sentiment is just noise really, I've stopped following it.

Do I think the science looks good and we could see a SP many times this level? Yes. Is there risk? Yes. Could it go lower? Yes. Could it go higher? Yes. Will they get bought out at some point? Probably. How long will that take? Who knows.

That's a really helpful post RPStock, thanks.

I find that reassuring in some ways, as future funding does not have to be contingent on Blautix progressing to P3 then (that had been my principal concern), and the MRX0518 targets seem conservative based on data so far.

Maybe Sangi is right that the delay releasing any update until now is due to delays with a third party, or Oxford Finance's Collateral Agent then...

I have crl repeatedly and got nothing beyond a stock response. Their IR is shambolic.

I was confident in this, given their investment at £1.10, before the BOD gifted themselves a load of options at 53p, exercisable over a 10 year period, with no investment upfront.

What if the share price continues to implode, what's to stop the BOD thinking 53p is now too ambitious, and they'll offer a load more options at 25p instead?

I've de-risked considerably in light of all the above, although I still retain a significant holding.

Crl the loan is not interest free.

If certain milestones are not met, an interest rate in excess of 8% will be applied from September 2023 - and the Board have given ZERO clarity on what those milestones are, and what is required to get tranches 2 and 3 of the financing through. Interest only payments are required until then. Even if these unspecified milestones are met, >8% interest will be applied from September 2024.

The lack of any transparency around the Oxford milestones, alongside the continued failure to give any Keytruda update, the failure to bring on board any institutional investors, the failure to find any P3 partner for Blautix, the dishing out of share options unrelated to any performance of the company, and the apparent apathy to a persistent share price erosion, as well as long term investors, are increasingly red flags for me.

Not sure I entirely agree with that, we have been promised a MRX0518 keytruda update this quarter which, theoretically, could land any time, and potentially P3 news from the FDA on Blautix (which I'm more doubtful of).

There's also the possibility of a major institutional investor buying in at a low price and a TR-1 being issued.

I'm not saying any of those are the most likely scenarios, share price could drop further as you say, but I don't think it's fair to say there will definitely not be positive news anytime soon.

It's a fair comment Boonco, and I still retain large holding here, despite the glass half empty comments. However, I'd counter:

A) why repeatedly delay an update on an open Part B trial if the news is good?
B) why no explanation for the delays?
C) if there's positive data, why not share it with Oliveira now to keep him on board?
D) why not commit funds now, if they're so confident in something progressing to phase 3? (I'd have been more comfortable if the Board had actually exercised options now, even if they'd been at a lower price than 53p).
E) if MRX0518 and keytruda Part B data is looking promising, shouldn't they be worried about a hostile takeover with such a lowly share price? They've done nothing to bolster it.

The way I see it, either:
1. MRX0518 is progressing well, they've held off on an update, and given themselves and employees 8% more of the company on the cheap ahead of an update late Q1; or
2. Part B MRX0518 isn't going as well as hoped and, fearful of a negative market reaction (as happened with Blautix), they're holding off on an update until they can hopefully conclude a partnership on Blautix, to strengthen their negotiating position; or
3. MRX 0518 Part B data is good, but they're witholding releasing it or looking to make it as strong as possible, ahead of a placing to fund a P3 Blautix trial directly, so the SP is then at the highest level when they happens.

All scenarios increasingly sit uncomfortably with me given where the share price now is, and I cannot think of any other reasonable explanation (if the delays are due to a third party, why not just say?) Time will tell. I completely accept falling into negativity bias on the basis of what's not been said though.

Feels like a long way back to £1 from here.

I'm increasingly concerned at the lack of any news on their cancer trials, Keytruda & MRX 0518 in particular.

Their complete failure to give a clinical update on an open trial, or explain what's causing the delays, makes me worry they are deliberately withholding disappointing Part B data, until after they (hopefully) confirm a P3 Blautix partner. Just my own theory, who knows.

If they are in advanced negotiations on a P3 blautix partner, the pathetic share price won't be helping. Do they really want to do a placing at this level to fund it? And obviously taking that into account, it's hardly a position of negotiating strength with any potential partners to bring in upfront payments etc.

Taking all that into consideration, maybe 30p even isn't a floor? Who knows.

Needs positive news on clinical trials, or a positive TR-1 on an institutional investment, to lead to any reversal in fortune here.

The good news is the Board & the new CFO obviously thought 53p would be a bargain at 'mates rates' (although they also thought the same at £1.10).

I agree the fundamentals of the science haven't changed - but also think it could be a good few months before we hear anything on Mrx0518, & without new data I don't see the share price reversing.

I've sold off 25% to de-risk but haven't offloaded any more. Will see what comes out of Monday's conference, and investor relations also over the next week, before making any more decisions - but its entirely possible we'll be another 10-15% down by then! Hopefully not.

Issue I have is there's a catch 22 now though?

Only strong data can reverse this down trend, but how can the Board release anything now having just gifted themselves a load of cheap options?

Sorry Dave, but I think I'm right on this - we'll have to agree to disagree at least.

"On 17 December 2021, options were granted to such employees to acquire a total of 7,520,152 Ordinary Shares with an exercise price of 52.35 pence, being equal to the closing mid-price on the date of grant. Together with the 7,278,958 Options granted TODAY, a total of 14,799,110 Options have been granted, representing 8.21 per cent. of the Company's issued share capital.

The Options awarded TODAY vest in equal parts annually over a period of four years, beginning on 1 June 2022, save for John Doyle where vesting starts from 3 January 2023, and are exercisable over a period of 10 years from the date of grant."

When you look at the table, the shares total 7,278,958 also; i.e. the share options given on 4th January.

They're different share options, at different prices, with different vesting periods, in my view.

Can't say I blame you Alicante Dave.

Dave McManus the RNS reads as follows:

"On 17 December 2021, options were granted to such employees to acquire a total of 7,520,152 Ordinary Shares with an exercise price of 52.35 pence, being equal to the closing mid-price on the date of grant. Together with the 7,278,958 Options granted today, a total of 14,799,110 Options have been granted, representing 8.21 per cent. of the Company's issued share capital.

The Options awarded today vest in equal parts annually over a period of four years, beginning on 1 June 2022, save for John Doyle where vesting starts from 3 January 2023, and are exercisable over a period of 10 years from the date of grant."

So my reading of that is the 7.5m options could be exercised from 17th November, the second tranche of 7.2m options have a date from 1st June 2022 as you say.

Keep pumping Porky, I admire your enthusiasm.

Ask yourself this though. If the Board are so confident of the news flow to come, that it will be both timely this Q1 and exceptional, and if they're so confident that the share price won't implode further, why didn't or why haven't they exercised a single one of the 7,520,152 share options that were apparently granted to them on 17th December, at 52p? They're not subject to any kind of qualifying period, they were good to go immediately - at least by my reading of the RNS - and the share price briefly drifted higher than that.

Whilst we wait for news, and whilst Oliveira (& potentially other PIs) dump stock, and shorts potentially increase, I would say there is scope for this stock to go lower over the coming months. I thought 50p was a rock solid floor, we've touched 49p today, maybe it isn't?

We also have zero clarity on the Oxford Financing milestones, what's required, and (if they're not met) whether an additional placing will be necessary. Maybe that's also why the Board are reluctant to stump up any of their own cash now. If the second and third tranches of that don't come through, are we fully funded to Q4?

I was comfortable with the level of risk - increasing it even - before the RNS of a couple of days ago, confident I was in the same position as Duncan and Alex (better even, as far fewer shares and at a significantly lower average).

However, the more I think it about it now, the less comfortable I become. These share options have changed the dynamic, we're no longer all in the same boat.

As such, I've offloaded 25% today - and the further we drift without news or explanation, the more I'll likely offload. Yes that may be foolish long-term, but it's all about risk management.

The Board's complete lack of ambition in these share options, and their failure to explain anything on the Keytruda delays, rings alarm bells. They're seemingly happy to de-risk, at the expense of existing shareholders, and that concerns me.

I've no issue with them granting options, accept there have been a lot of external factors beyond their control, and understand the need to incentivise the new CFO. 8% options is nothing in the grand scheme of things.

However, I do have an issue with them failing to invest anything now, whilst simultaneously allowing themselves to buy back in at 53p over a period of 4 to 10 years, if things work out. It doesn't scream confidence to me.

If they don't deliver on Keytruda this Q1, I'll almost certainly be out entirely, there comes a point where one has to draw a line in the sand and move on.

Who knows, but 6.89% of shares is a heck of a lot to offload still and even offloading 2 to 4% more could significantly erode the share price, if 50p isn't Oliveira's floor?

It's utter madness to me for anyone to suggest the Board should hold fire on releasing good news until Oliveira's done, and unless the Board get on the front foot soon they risk this share imploding further with loyal PIs selling up also.

If the delay releasing keytruda data is due to delays with a third party, then the Board need to come out and explain that. It's not good enough to repeatedly change target dates (June 21 became Autumn which became Q4 which became Q4/Q1), still miss them, and simply sit there in silence whilst doing nothing to bolster the share price beyond pitching to institutions.

I'd thought 80, 70p, 60p etc would be solid floors, but if 50p breaks then who knows how low this could go?

Tensions are running high at the moment, understandably, as a lot of investors are sitting on considerable long term losses here (including myself, minus £ tens of thousands).

Some of the delays, e.g. Blautix, I think it's reasonable to assume Covid has thrown a major spanner in the works with the FDA.

Keytruda is a little different, it continues to perplex me why we've heard NOTHING on their most promising programme, when it's an open label trial, and Dave's right that a number of investors (including myself) received comms from 4D directly in November confirming the timescales on their website outlining updates before year end remained the most up to date.

OK, they did revise keytruda to Q4/Q1, but I can completely see why a lot investors are hacked off at the awarding of share options before this update has been given. I was investing more pre-Christmas, when the BOD were working on an 8% share giveaway to employees.

My biggest gripe remains the fact they've not asked employees to invest anything now, before news lands. If or when news lands, it's a completely risk free investment; they can simply buy in at 53p and sell for X immediately, assuming it's good. Hence, I'd like to see senior personnel buy in now, to get some upwards SP momentum going finally.

They've done absolutely nothing to bolster the SP over the last 9 months, and that's hugely frustrating. Throughout this period, I've been calling for Directors to invest more as a show of confidence to stop the decline, they've seemingly waited until the lowest possible level to award a load of options. Some had speculated the BOD had not bought in at all to stop the previous SP decline, as we were in a closed period when they had inside info. Clearly, that was not the case.

Having done this, they need to offer a lot more than they're doing; investors including myself are losing patience, and another investor conference is frankly a ****e and laughable RNS; we need data NOW.

All of that said, I do have sympathy and confidence in the BOD still, in that this is a very challenging climate to run a business, they've had a nightmare with Woodford, Covid and the death of a CFO, they do need to remunerate staff in inflationary times, so shares Vs salary is a reasonable offer. I don't know how close they were to losing key people, or what they needed to offer the new CFO to get him on board, but to a degree I'll trust Duncan and Alex's judgement still. They're hurting also, having invested $1m each 9 months ago at $1.10.

It's a final warning from me though, if there's any more of this, and of there's no Keytruda update Q1, I'm out.

I've absolutely no issue with the awarding of shares and options, agree it's far preferable to inflated salaries. Alex and Duncan as CEO and CSO are on modest salaries at £102k for the work involved, it's expected in small high risk, high potential stocks, and I also think it's a high inflationary environment and 4D need to offer long term incentives to retain personnel.

My only frustration is the employees haven't actually invested anything here, they've simply been given a 4 year period in which they can choose to do so at 53p. I hope senior management in particular step up therefore, and exercise their share options now, as a show of confidence in expected news flow.

Yes it would have been nice if the share price offer increased annually from 53p to 70p to 90p to £1.10 or whatever, as an incentive to get the SP up, but presumably the BOD felt they needed to offer personnel a much stronger incentive than that to stay on, and fair enough if so.

End of the day, Duncan and Alex have worked hard and invested significant cash to get the company to this point, and however much it hurts us as shareholders to see pieces of the company given away, it'll hurt them more, and they obviously won't want to do so more than they feel is absolutely necessary.

They've not actually put any more skin in the game though? They've just given all employees the option to buy in at about 53p over a 4 year period. That will undoubtedly act as a drag on the share price any time there's some material news flow.

I'd have been far happier if employees were actually exercising those options now, as a sign of confidence of things to come this year, hopefully a portion will whilst the SP is at this level.

I agree this should signify the bottom though, but it's no guarantee of that.

The new CFO looks like a good hire on the basis of the RNS, I'm sure Beck's passing hindered their ability to an extent to bring in US institutional investors following the NASDAQ listing.

Theoretically we're funded until Q4 next year, but there is a question around the Oxford Finance arrangement, and what Milestones the BOD will need to hit in order to get the next tranches of funding through ($7.5m and $10m). I've not seen them clarify anywhere what those milestones are, but without those tranches of funding the cash runway won't extend to Q4.

It's either a millstone and a placing will need to happen Q1 (I think), if the milestones are linked to Blautix / Keytruda progression, and this is delayed for too long with the FDA distracted with Covid-19.

Or, more optimistically, the BOD know the milestones, will hit then with X & X newsflow Q1, and that combined with the next tranches of funding, and potentially X partner(s) with X upfront payments, will see the share price rocket.

I'm taking the optimistic view, hence I've topped up considerably in the low 50s, but I do get why the share price is bleeding at the mo with every month that goes by, for that reason. No milestones, no Oxford funding, no Oxford funding & no confirmed partnership funding, there'll need to be a significant share placing at a low price.

2 studies today confirming Omicron is at least 40% weaker than Delta, and economic growth in the US is faster than previously forecast. Definitely expecting a blue day here. Hopefully it's onwards and upwards now, and low 50s will be a distant memory...