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I've taken the opportunity to accumulate more today in the low 50s, bringing my average down overall by 10p. If it goes significantly lower I'll top up more, but that's me done for now. Ultimately, when it's better than BOGOF, I couldn't really say no.

Hopefully come Feb, most concerns about Omicron will have eased, oliveira may have stopped offloading, and we can look forward to a strong flow of news on the oncology front from 4D. All the updates we've had to date have been highly promising, the fact that both the BOD and Merck topped up significantly at £1.10 continues to give me confidence, and whilst I've a few concerns about Oliveira dumping more, the Oxford Financing arrangement and whatever milestones 4D need to hit, and further share dilution, I've faith in the BOD in navigating all those issues.

Only time will tell if I've been stupid though...

I agree with that, question is whether it's serious top up time or not... I've taken a few already

@Mumbo_Jumbo the sector may be 'unproven' in the sense there isn't yet an approved microbiome medicine on the market, but the clinical trials have been incredibly promising to date. How do you explain a 70% tumour reduction in a cancer patient that's exhausted all lines of treatment? Why would the Directors each invest $1m of their own cash at £1.10, if they didn't think they were on to something? Why would major pharma have bothered to partner and invest in 4D? I'm far more confident of seeing £s than single digits here.

Interested in views on what the milestones are to get the next tranche of Oxford Financing? The BOD must have been confident in delivering them to have signed up to their Ts & Cs.

My guess would be (at min) further validation of MRX0518 + keytruda in part B data, which I'm confident we'll get Q1.

A concern, however, is if it's also contingent on Blautix progressing; I'm not convinced with the wider pandemic 4D will get anything from the FDA in Q1, and I'm not convinced they'll bring in a partner without that.

I largely agree with those comments Michael. I guess the only mitigation I'd offer is they did provide an update in September on 0518 and the use of biomarkers to better target patients, and in the interview yesterday Duncan did at least refer to highly promising results to date in oncology.

I'll offer a slightly more optimistic view to you Sangi, which is (a) oliveira may not look to exit in full (a 3 to 5% holding may be his target for all we know), and (b) he probably has a minimum price he doesn't really want to sell below, my guess is that's around 50p but who knows.

I've nibbled a few more now, brought my average down. News coming out from South Africa is that hospitalizations aren't as severe as feared, so my guess is the wave of panic gripping markets may subside quite quickly come Jan/Feb, and even if it drops lower now the overall rebound might be strong.

Equally, we need news to drive the SP onwards and upwards, so I've certainly not bought more with the intention of selling up or trading anytime soon, as I remain unconvinced we'll get anything substantial in Q1.

I continue to find it a bit odd that they've not invested anything further. Appreciating they're heavily under water each on a $1m investment at £1.10, buying another £100k each or whatever would definitely help to reassure the market I think, show confidence, and perhaps bring in new investors to replace Oliveira.

The Pandion buyout is interesting Dave, but in fairness I never said a buyout would happen at £1 a share. I only said that - without further data leading to P3 - £1 ish would seem the maximum the BOD could leverage or negotiate right now, which Duncan and Alex obviously wouldn't accept.

In other words, I don't buy the argument that they're negotiating an exit now, that's why there's largely been radio silence, that's why they're seemingly relaxed about the share price, and that there'll suddenly be a £3 a share offer from Merck. It doesn't seem realistic.

The only option is to progress clinical trials, and that's clearly taking longer than they'd hoped - although they're obviously confident in the science they're developing.

A Merck buyout definutely seems like the most likely end game here, but I'm surprised people seem to want that at these levels? And I'm genuinely interested in what price people realistically think the BOD could negotiate on that front?

Clinigen got bought out last week at a 50% premium only - yet people seem to think a Merck buyout would be £3+ a share.

That seems completely unrealistic to me. A buyout around £1 a share - at this stage, without further data or P3 developments etc - seems the maximum the BOD could leverage. Hence, I'd much rather see trials actually progress to P3, and then negotiations start.

The only thing that will generate any serious interest in this share is a P3 trial, so an update on Blautix or Keytruda. The BOD have confirmed there won't be an update on either of those until Q1 - and that's if you believe their latest revised timescales (I'm not sure I do, but also accept it's exceptionally challenging times).

I agree that once Oliveira is done, & IF we have positive news on either of those, and a healthier stock market, there could be a quick turnaround. However, it could also be a rebound from a very low level.

For me, the SP will be going to low 50s at least, possibly lower, in light of (a) Omicron and investors fleeing risky shares, (b) oliveira selling up, probably even more aggressively alongside PIs to minimise risk, and (c) all the above creating perfect conditions for shorts to open, knowing there's nothing on the horizon to reverse the down trend.

The Sp is down as:

1. The BoD have basically confirmed there'll be no updates this Q4 as promised, certainly no significant ones (Blautix & Keytruda were the only programmes likely to generate significant interest, and Keytruda was already booted to Q1); and
2. Capital is fleeing from "risky" shares in light of Omicron

Yes Oliveira selling up has driven the price down, maybe he's accelerated that, but I suspect in light of both the above there'll be many other sellers also.

You can either sell up also, perhaps hoping to buy in lower; cut your losses, with the BOD failing to hit any of their own deadlines; or lump it for now, in the expectation the SP will rebound.

My own view is the reaction to Omicron is over done, and come Spring/Summer anyone buying in now could be making a very healthy return with key programme updates finally delivered, the stock market hopefully in healthier form, and Oliveira done and dusted in 6 months' time (based on him selling 1% roughly every 3 weeks). It's anyone's guess though.

I'm certainly not putting in any more - not at these prices anyway - but if it hits low 50s I might. My guess is this time it will go lower pre-Christmas, in light of all the above, but I still haven't (& won't) sell a bean. The Blautix update was the best the BOD could offer to reassure the market though, and it's had the opposite effect for now.

The only consolation is they're fully funded, I doubt there'll be a placing at these levels, the science continues to look very promising, and the BOD have haemorrhaged money the last 9 months also. If you can take a long term view, all the above makes me think it will come good next year.

Yes I think IF oliveira were to exit in full, at a rate of 1% every 6 weeks or so, it could take around a year. I don't think he'll want to exit in full though.

Re P3 Blautix, I agree that's a game changer, on which I'd expect a significant SP uplift. However, we've only been promised an update on their Blautix strategy, which to me means "we're partnering with X, or funding in house, or putting it on hold etc".

There's clearly no confirmed partner, as yet, and if there is serious interest, the weak SP puts 4D in a poor negotiating position as it (to me) rules out 4D running it in house via a placing. Also think the uncertain covid/economic outlook may also delay any Pharma committing funds now, they might just want to preserve cash until the Nu variant is understood.

All things considered then, I just think, if they were nearing a deal, it could push things back beyond Q4, and Blautix or Keytruda or the main things that could generate interest in the stock short term.

I'm not pessimistic, in that I think the promised q4 news flow will eventually happen, but I am increasingly pessimistic that anything significant will land over the next month - and the SP will continue to be manipulated lower whilst that's the case.

Flip side is, if there is no news Q4 now, I'll almost be more forgiving for it.

The crash today below 60p is down to the Nu covid variant, & people either investing elsewhere (Ncyt) or holding cash. Either way, can easily see this going to low 50s now.

As for Oliveira selling, the BOD releasing good data could make him think twice, I wouldn't wait until he's out as that could take a year.

Concern for me is, if the stock market's going to be wobbly for the next few months with Covid surging, why release anything now? Any bounce from Q4 updates will be minimal, the BOD missed their window a couple of weeks ago.

No Q4 updates, further SP erosion, further shorts opening etc, spiral down will continue.

Immaterial I guess if you're holding long term and have faith in the science, agree there'll be a topping up opportunity, but there's no hiding from the fact that 4D's IR has been utterly shambolic this H2.

I'm of a similar view Phil - though maybe slightly less patient/polite than you.

Would add that we need to see further action from the BOD to show confidence in the company, if they miss their own Q4 deadlines though. e.g. Directors buy more shares.

It'll be ridiculous if we basically hear nothing in 9 months following the Nasdaq listing, and if they keep missing their own deadlines, some loyal investors - including myself - will start to sell up for a return elsewhere, or out of concern that things at 4D are taking a turn for the worse.

I'm not there yet, but if we get nothing by year end by way of update/explanation/show of confidence, I quite possibly will be.

Yes well the line their IR gave me a few days ago was "The timelines detailed in our Corporate Presentation available on our website remain our current guidance", which is pretty meaningless really.

Increasingly, I'm very doubtful 4 of the promised updates will land in Q4, but Keytruda remains the key one for me in any case. Given they've said Q4/Q1 for that, we know that's not going to land over the next month.

Even so, if they get nothing out the next couple of weeks, low 50s definitely feels back on the cards. This H2 has been a complete **** show, I just hope there has been significant progress behind the scenes...

The main disappointment here is that Oliveira still has about 9% to offload, if he wants to, and aside from driving the SP down it could weaken any rise. However, it also looks like he has a floor as well, I think low to mid 60s, based on previous SP action.

Doesn't really change the big picture though. SP will live or die off data, strong trial readouts Oliveira may stop selling, institutions may buy in etc, weak data we're stuffed.

Just begs the question though, why is it late November and we've had NOTHING from the BOD? Duncan/Alex better give something quick, to reassure the market.

4d has always been a risky investment for me, which would either be worth nothing, or multiples in £s. I've zero interest in trading for 10% here or there.

The fact the Directors have invested serious cash gives me a lot of reassurance that at least some of the catalysts to come will be good, whenever they land, and they can't be far off now - although I'm as frustrated as anyone else by the delays.

Probably like others, I'd hoped the 25% rise last week would be met by a decent RNS this morning, and this afternoon's sell off was presumably driven by the lack of any news hitting the US markets.

Either way, I'm relaxed though. News can't be far off, whether it's a few days, weeks or months, and if it rises 30-50% off essentially nothing but rumour, then imagine how it will fly on further validation with keytruda, a P3 Blautix trial, or confirmation of a major institutional fund buying in.

Interesting note from JP Morgan today saying how much of a bargain UK stocks are Vs their US and European counterparts, and that now's the time to buy them at 'record cheap' levels. 4D's just another case in point.

If I didn't already hold tens of thousands of shares, I'd be buying shed loads at these levels. As it stands, I'll only top up if it hits low 50s, but it increasingly looks like those days are long gone.

I don't think Sang has said anything unreasonable here.

The Board have said they'll give an update on their Blautix strategy by year end. I read that as a "we're trying to find a partner to finance / Co finance it with". If they don't, then a fundraise next year seems entirely possible to finance it themselves.

What I don't see happening - or at least I hope not - is a fundraising at these levels.

So presumably, if there isn't positive news on a Blautix partner, there'll be positive news on one of the multiple other fronts.

Question is why we haven't had any of that to date, and we've had constant slippage with timescales, but I'll keep the faith...

Silence ON this Board isn't a bad sign at all, silence FROM the Board is difficult to read. My own view is the delay could be down to:

A) inconclusive data on some trials needing more analysis, possibly at insistence of partners;
B) disappointing data on some initial trials, and them wanting to release bad with good in quick succession so as not to tank the SP further;
C) doing the rounds with institutional investors, hoping to entice them on the cheap before releasing good news
D) delays in trials due to Covid
E) internal bandwidth, searching for a new CFO unexpectedly
F) advanced FDA discussions around a pivotal P3 nearing conclusion
G) all the above

I sort of think (G), except I'm skeptical on (F).

Think Michael made a lot of sensible comments, but I do increasingly think we've bottomed out around 60p now, until news lands, and that will either make or break the SP from here.

I'm still of an optimistic view the Directors would not have invested at these levels if they weren't convinced of the newsflow to come, and at 60p, it's priced to the conservative side of risk.

I still think the microbiome will have huge clinical significance in future, still think 4D will come good sooner or later, but I'm not topping up any further unless the SP really tanks pre any news to low 50s, which it doesn't look like it will do.