Member Info for ColdBrew

18th August Oliveria owned 10.98% of the company, there's been pretty much a relentless decline in the SP since 26th August. He'd have been legally required to issue a TR-1 within 2 days of crossing the 10% threshold if offloading, that's less than 1.8m shares, so if he was dumping in the firesale manner you suggest Sangi surely he'd have had to have given an update by now - even allowing for him being tardy? 1.8m is nothing given the volume of trades we've had this month.

I can't make sense of the share price action at all, it looks like it's being heavily manipulated to me given the volume of trades, but the BOD need to get some proper updates out to shift the balance.

A lot has been promised H2, we're now mid-September without any meaningful update, and today's RNS was nothing but a mash up of what's already been communicated. I was disappointed by it.

They've promised updates by year end for Keytruda, Asthma, pancreatic cancer, IBS etc, effectively now over the next 3 months, so the time has come for Duncan and Alex to deliver on this.

Biggest threat to me is the constant erosion of the share price and a takeover for nothing, given the pipeline. The lower this SP goes, the more of a reality that becomes.

Wider sector has been hit by Seres' failure no doubt, but others (e.g. Opti up 10% this month) have been fine, so I'm not sure that alone can explain the decline either.

Down in the UK, yet 3% up in the US. There'll be some monster trades showing later, me thinks.

I don't buy there being a larger seller (no TR-1s), and even the arguments around shorts manipulating the price carry less sway with me now; there are no disclosed short positions.

So I can only think it's games by the MMs to shake out weak holders, but who knows.

I'm on a similar page to Michael; i think if a meaningful data update is not out by the end of September, he's offered an entirely plausible explanation, and we need to ask what's going on.

Only areas I disagree are the Oxford Financing was a very positive thing for me, I wouldn't be surprised if they were privy to info which we aren't.

And for me, the Board should have a laser focus in the SP for multiple reasons. Constant erosion risks (1) hostile takeover for no value if they really are sitting on a goldmine, (2) limits ability to raise finance through future placings if their plan is to fund P3 trials in house, and (3) risks a complete collapse in shareholder value if investors lose faith & sharks begin to circle (as per last year's 100p to 25p collapse in a little over a month). Confidence is a fragile thing.

My hope, however, is 80p is a solid base, Q4 (& next year) will be exceptional, starting next week, and the Board are relaxed about a 6 month drift in the SP knowing what news is to come.

I remain bullish on 4D, and have made this my largest holding. There are a couple of things I am confused by though:

1. 6 months since the SPAC listing with basically no news is a long time, why is this? Surely a constant stream of positive news to build the SP up immediately following the Nasdaq listing would have been better, and they could/should have timed the Spac launch around that? Instead we're in a vicous cycle downwards.
2. Why arent the Board doing more to get the SP up now (e.g. buying in again, at a 30% discount?)

It may well be Duncan and Alex have significant sums invested already, and are relaxed about the low SP right now, as they know what's to come in Q4. I hope so.

I'm increasingly frustrated at the lack of any meaningful news though, and the Board's apparent apathy to the constant erosion of the SP.

Won't be selling up any, it'd a long term hold for me, but I've stopped topping up also.

Seems like great news to me - extends cash runway into Q4 2022, with multiple trial readouts due before then, and gives 4D more time to find a new CFO. Hopefully that settles any concerns about a further share placing, and the share price can finally start re-rating.

Giving away $250k of shares in return for a $12.5m loan isn't a bad deal either; I've seen far worse on AIM.

I'll be disappointed if the share price has only doubled in 2 years' time... the upside from any products moving to a P3 trial is far, far higher than that for me (oncology in particular).

Duncan and Alex each got paid a salary of £102k according to the most recent documents on Companies House. Duncan alone has invested £1.5m in 4D shares since December 2018. No idea what that means as a % of his net worth, he's obviously had a successful track record growing small pharma previously at Aquarius, but there's no way they would each be investing these sorts of sums if they were not extremely confident in the products they are developing.

Share price action makes no sense to me, short positions are down about 30% since June and not a single major shareholder has declared any offloading, yet our share price is down around 20% in roughly the same period. Same trading pattern pretty much every day, can only assume it's still being manipulated on low trading volumes, all compounded by the SPAC, and people selling up now in expectation they can buy back in for a lower price, or chasing quick gains elsewhere, and maybe wider concerns about the overall health of the stock market.

Think Michael is right to ask why data has not been released yet, but given forthcoming conferences, updated pipeline, Alex and Duncan's major and recent investment (as well as Merck etc), and a pretty good >$30m funding position, I remain very bullish and am using this as an opportunity to top up still - added more at 88.8p today.

The risk of being out when the oncology or Blautix news lands far outweighs the risk of trading for a small gain, for me at least. A £2.50 share price seems entirely realistic - even if further funding is sought for P3 trials through share dilution.

The microbiome continues to get more and more attention, the valuation of 4D remains ridiculously low compared to peers, and the H2 newsflow looks exceptional. I'm also completely unconvinced by suggestions that pharma isn't as 'hot' as other sectors, if anything it's never been of more value, we're seeing a raft of buyouts of UK-listed pharma firms, so for me this is a long-term hold for life-changing sums. I've nearly 50,000 shares now, and counting.

This doesn't look like a general market bump up to me, looks very much like it's specific to 4D - but weather it's another false dawn, shorts closing, a big buyer, or a sign that an oncology update is coming, I guess we'll find out over the next few days...

Either way, I remain relaxed. If I can top up below £1 I'll continue do so as much as I can, if it's finally starting to re-rate as I expect, then happy days.

The only thing I won't be doing is trading.

Sangi is probably right about Autumn for news on oncology, but I don't see that being as late as November. The cash runway extends to Q2, you have the Christmas period, and they'll want to get news out well before then to strengthen their negotiating position, as well as the share price. There's also a multitude of other updates to land this H2.

So the way I see it, news could land at any point to shift the share price, on any front, and 4D will be working to make that as fast as possible (balanced against updates actually being worthwhile).

Any opportunity to top up below the placing 1.10 price is a good one. You can trade, but doing so obviously risks you being locked out for if or when news lands, resulting in any major re-rate. Seres rocketed 600% at one point overnight, on positive P3 data.

I'm very bullish on the oncology front in particular, also Blautix, and would far rather wait patiently for news to land. I'm confident Duncan and Alex know what they're doing, and comforted significantly by the fact they have some serious skin in the game.

So far from selling up or trading, I'm continuing to use this as an opportunity to top up. Each to their own though.

Interesting news today, re: GSK acquiring this immuno-oncology company for $625m upfront, and a further $1.5bn in milestone payments. Goldman Sachs saying GSK have a further $10 billion to spend on deals, with many of their current drugs coming off patent this decade. Really do think 4D 's oncology platform looks incredibly exciting, and they're in prime position for a similar sort of deal, but more likely with Merck. Big pharma companies are cash rich, looking for assets, and 4D (because of Woodford, Brexit, Covid-19 etc) are grossly undervalued. Surely with a decent oncology readout, some serious offers will start coming through...

If nothing else, Worldquant will need to start rapidly closing their short ahead of the expected H2 newsflow. That's about £1.3m, and rising...

Agreed. Definitely don't agree with this perception that shorters 'know what they're doing'. Worldquant made about 17% of their staff redundant, and closed 5 offices last year - and that was all pre covid.

https://nypost.com/2020/01/09/greenwich-hedge-fund-worldquant-axes-130-staffers-as-quants-struggle/amp/&ved=2ahUKEwjbvs6miYrxAhUJDmMBHTo3AfAQFnoECCUQAQ&usg=AOvVaw0BA-oeUinJpWv-zmpHbLt2&cf=1

I really can't see this going much lower, the risk/reward of shorting this starts to look far too great (to me). Has its own unique circumstances, but Clover Health (another SPAC listing), debuted on NASDAQ around $10, was gradually shorted down to just under $7 over several months, and then exploded this week to $22 (& rising). That might have been driven by Reddit, but I think we'll have a similar story here, driven by Oncology. Time will tell.

It's a **** show of too many SPACs hitting the market in March this year to great fan fare, when there was not the liquidity in the US markets to absorb them. Add to that some wider stock market concerns around inflation, possibly crypto absorbing some investment, and the lack of any major bio sector investors in the UK following the collapse of Woodford, and that just creates the ideal conditions for an Algorithmic fund to completely manipulate the stock price on low trading volumes.

Frustrating as all this is, the flip side is, when news lands - assuming it's positive - there should be a decent re-rating, and most of these headwinds I personally think are temporary. I really don't see the SP going much lower. If the expected oncology update this month is mega, it's possible World Quant get seriously burnt (I really hope so) - although granted, I never expected this would go sub 90p.

So if you're prepared to sit and hold, continue investing even at such low levels, this stock represents ridiculous value long-term - assuming we move into P3 trials on Blautix and oncology.

I'm not sure I agree with concerns raised on this board about an additional fundraise, we've major partners on board, are fully funded into q2 next year and there's an awful lot of news to land in H2. Merck had over $14 billion revenue from Keytruda last year, and our P2 oncology results so far look incredible. Frankly, at this sort of level, I'm almost surprised they haven't tried to buy us out already, so a strong oncology update and we should really start building momentum. I'd have thought Merck alone would be chomping at the bit to invest.

All good from my POV. I'd always thought Covid looked a bit odd in 4D's programme of activity, and I'd never expected any positive news there. The confirmation that enrollment for Asthma has been completed just adds to the strong new flow we can all expect in H2, great news that's progressing well. Agree re: a steady rise, but if there's a strong update on oncology or a P3 partner on Blautix, there'll be something rapid & significant. Really can't understand why World Quant have been upping their short, but I'll trust the judgement of Alex, Duncan, Merck, Longevity, Ladenburg, Chardan etc - all of whom are probably far better informed on the status of the ongoing trials - Vs some computer algorithm. Remains a strong buy for me, longer it's at these levels, the more I'll continue to top up.

I'm very chilled about this investment, and I'm happy to keep adding at these prices. Once there's any news of a phase 3 trial (whether that's IBS or Oncology), I'd expect a fairly significant re-rating - and that's discounting any other news on phase 1 and pre-clinical trials (Parkinson's etc). Ultimately, I suspect this will end with a Merck buyout. Only frustration is with the share price languishing at stupidly low levels (a combination of Woodford, Brexit, Covid-19 & now wider stock market concerns), any buyout may not be anywhere near at what I would say is fair value. I've faith in Duncan and Alex though, they're experienced operators, have significant skin in the game, and I'm sure will be working night and day to drive the share price up. Just wish World Quant would bugger off!

Each to their own Enteleon, but I’d argue that far from being unfocused the company has made remarkable progress in a short time. It’s only in its 7th year of operation in a completely new field of medicine, yet has got to the point where it has 4 phase 2 trials in play, 4 phase 1, a range of pre-clinical programmes in place, 1000 patents, and partnerships with two of the world’s largest pharma companies in Merck and Pfizer. As for funding, the runway extends to Q2 next year and assuming positive trial data in any of these programmes in H2 this year, immuno-oncology in particular, partnership funding is a certainty. Their investor relations and PR could maybe be a bit better, covid trials were maybe surprising, but Duncan and Alex know what they’re doing. They’ve a successful track record at Aquarius Life Sciences funding start up pharma companies which got bought out by larger players, and that’s ultimately what will happen here. Only question is when, at what price will it represent fair value to shareholders, and who the larger player will be. It most certainly does not represent fair value at present, Duncan and Alex know that, and that’s why they both invested a further $1 million each at £1.10 just a few weeks ago. My guess is this ends with a Merck buyout on the basis of the immuno-oncology keytruda trials. The phase 2 data is phenomenal so far, -64% tumour reductions in patients that had exhausted other treatment options, 42% of patients showed clinically meaningful results, so I have a lot of confidence in going to a larger cohort as there’s a huge margin for error. Our Market Cap is a pathetic £170m, Merck had $14 billion revenue from keytruda last year alone. With positive results in a larger cohort of patients, a Merck buyout seems an absolute no brainer to me, at many multiples of the current price, my guess within a 3 year period.

Honestly, anyone selling up now through fear or whatever else frankly deserves to lose their money. Directors buy £700k shares each at a £1.10 average on a £102k salary. News due June on immuno-oncology trials, which to date have seen tumour reductions of up to -64% in some cancer patients, with no side effects. If people want to keep selling here, I'll keep buying. The H2 news flow here will be exceptional.

This is no "lifestyle" company - the CEO & CSO get paid £100k a year, yet they've just invested a further £700k EACH at £1.10, to add to their significant shareholding. We've had an initial Phase II oncology readout showing clinically meaningful results in 5 out of 12 patients - some of the tumour reductions are frankly incredible, given the late stage disease progression they were at - and this trial has been expanded to sites across the US, with a US listing in place. Merck have just increased their shareholding, a partnership with Pfizer has been set up, and then they have trials progressing for asthma, IBS, arthritis etc. Why anyone would sell up now is completely beyond me. There is no way Alex and Duncan would have invested these sorts of sums if they were not absolutely convinced of the news flow to come.