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Agree a Merck buyout is the likely direction of travel here, assuming there's something worth buying. I still think there must be, given the sizeable investment the Directors have made, and the initial 0518 data.

I am slightly laughing at your (StayLong) flip flop though. Less than two days ago I was a desperate "deramper who's gone short". You're now publicly declaring selling up, in the hope/expectation of buying back in cheaper, low 50s.

That's exactly the level I've consistently said I'll buy more, IF it goes there. I hope it doesn't.

I think if anyone looks at my posting history here, it's pretty clear I've consistently said the same thing for months; I've no short position. And the fact we're over -5% today I think shows the market's reaction to, yet again, delayed Keytruda data.

As for the massive trades earlier, it's clearly something to do with short positions; question is whether they're closing or opening further. My guess is the latter, on the basis of the SP action.

I’ll happily be wrong, but I’d expect a negative SP reaction next week as:

1. Keytruda is the most important programme, with the most promising results date, and biggest rewards;
2. There is a persistent pattern of the BOD failing to hit deadlines;
3. Further delay raises questions about why, on an open trial
4. A new short has opened

All that needs to be balanced though with the fact Q4 keytruda data still could happen, and even stripping that out, the news flow looks impressive if it’s good, and the BOD deliver most it. Who knows, we could have a Monday morning RNS.

My position remains unchanged. If I was new to 4D I’d probably throw a lot at it in the 60s, but with significant skin in the game already, I won’t be topping up further unless it hits low 50s. I’d much rather see this move onwards and upwards though, and I hope we’ve established 60s as a floor…

Yes you're right Phil.

13th September presentation, they said 2H 2021 for phase I / II keytruda data.

They're now saying Q4 2021 / Q1 2022.

So what was June became later Summer / Autumn, became Q4, and is now seemingly Q1 next year.

They're being far too lax with timescales IMV, and I'd expect the SP to react as such next week. We'll see.

Fingers crossed...

Maybe... I would love that to be the case.

Let's not forget their placing in July 2020 more than quadrupled by September though, on the back of strong newsflow, so I'm not entirely convinced the Directors are that scrupulous.

Agree you don't drop $2m into a company, unless you're confident you're on to something though.

Good weekends all, hopefully something big lands next week!

It looks to me like Oliveira is selling up through a series of auto trades, to control the exit SP as much as he can. He obviously can't dump 10% of the company in one trade, and just has to tightly manage the SP decline to whatever his exit point is as much as possible.

It doesn't look like there's an institutional buyer to take them, we've had no notification of that so far, but I may be wrong.

With potentially 10% to dump, the big concern is the SP bleeds to a point where PIs sell up en mass through fear, or the share gets shorted heavily again & manipulated further down, as there's no buying volume and a big seller.

The counter to all that is the Q4 newsflow looks exceptional, and I think we'll be hitting Oliveira's base price soon after which he'd be selling at a loss which I hope he won't do. There are no shorts declared above the 0.5% threshold. The cheaper the SP gets, the higher the buying volume should be also. So with all of that in mind, I'm hoping 50p is a very firm floor.

Each to their own though, 4D isn't for the faint hearted, and I'd thought the same at 80p, 70p, 60p.

At literally no point have I said I intend to sell up. What I have said is I wish I'd waited and invested at this price. Hadn't we all?

If heavily invested already, then it's a risky play to average down, and for me it's not worth it unless the SP hits 50-55p. Maybe then it is. I've sold nothing, I've bought nothing further.

3 things the Board could do to boost the SP:
1. Buy in now as a show of confidence
2. Be clear on timescales and deliver to them. What was H2 became Q4, and 2022 was implied in one of their most recent presentations
3. Give a 0518 clinical update now. That may give Oliveira pause for thought in selling up, and/or bring new investors in. I dont see the rationale in waiting until the selling is done, if they have data to hand.

On the one hand Sang, you're telling people to top up around 62p. On the other, you're saying it'll tank to sub 40p. On the one hand I'm filtered, on the other hand I've convinced you to sell up. Which is it?!

Far from whining, I'd say I'm asking legitimate questions of 4D's management, on which I'm always open to a counter view - including yours. You were right about Oliveira selling up.

At least my view is consistent though, and I'm not trying to sucker investors in or out.

I'm hoping 50-55p will be a floor based on a guesstimate of Oliveira's selling price, it could be lower. That's a positive, at least we're nearing a floor, I think. I'm prepared to top up then, if it drops there.

I'm hoping all that newsflow promised for H2, now lands in Q4. That's a positive. I do think most, though not all, of it will land & 4D must be on to something.

I believe there is a strong future in the microbiome, and I don't see how 4D could have had the results they've had on oncology so far, by chance. That's a positive.

But it's entirely fair to question, when the SP is imploding, why the Board aren't doing more to reassure the market.

And I am slightly concerned that by the time they release anything of significance, the whole stock market may be tanking & it'll have minimum impact short to medium term.

And with the SP languishing as it is, if the science is that strong, I'm concerned we'll be bought out on the cheap. I didn't invest in a risky share to sell out for £1. I've invested - for the long term - to make many multiples of that.

That's all a bit "shooting for the moon" for me, what if it doesn't come off? What if it takes 2 years to negotiate?

SP has halved since the placing now, yet we've had no meaningful 0518 update, and shareholders deserve to be better kept informed on the progression of clinical trials which they're ultimately funding.

If 4D are sitting on something great, tell us. Enough conferences, enough warm words, enough promises like "we're poised to deliver".

If they really think they're sitting on dynamite, then they should be concerned about a lowly SP and a hostile takeover, and doing everything they can to drive the SP up.

Why aren't the Board buying in at these levels? Why arent they releasing clinical data to reassure the market? Why are they constantly extending timescales?

I keep giving them the benefit of the doubt, but the longer this constant bleed goes on, the more concerned I get - and if the Board arent careful they risk a total capitulation in the SP here.

It may calm some PIs, but I dont think it'll stop the share price decline.

Oliveira has a lot to offload, the SPAC listing has only exposed the fact that there are still no institutional investors to replace Woodford, and only major clinical news I think will get them on board.

I'm relaxed either way though. If it hits 50-55p I'll top up, if it doesn't I'm comfortable with my risk exposure.

This was the main takeout for me, but the proof will be in the pudding - which I'm getting tired of waiting for!

"The first half of 2021 has been a significant period for 4D pharma. Our dual listing on NASDAQ raised our international profile and, using this as a platform along with new funds at our disposal, we look ahead to a period rich in clinical catalysts across our pipeline of Live Biotherapeutic Products taking the microbiome beyond the gut, including clinical readouts and the commencement of new studies across multiple programs. Highs and lows in the broader microbiome space have created mixed feelings towards microbiome therapeutic approaches - we are confident 4D pharma's differentiated, mechanism-driven approach is poised to deliver."

I'm not sure whether to feel more optimistic now we're suddenly being trolled with ridiculous posts.

Someone somewhere said something about the placebo effect being very strong. That may be the case in small trials, but scans of advanced cancer tumours showing a 70% reduction are rather tangible don't you think? They've not just been imagined. Question is, what's happened there, why haven't we had a further update on an open trial?

The only reason I think low 50s is likely is based on Oliveira's buying (& therefore exit) price, and the % holding he still has to offload. Maybe it's higher, maybe it's lower. 30s seems ridiculous to me, unless a large number of 4D's trials fail. 3 weeks ago we thought shorts and Quant funds were manipulating the price; Oliveira offloading at pace significantly changes that dynamic, in my view.

I'm not panicking, I've not sold a bean, and I still believe we'll have a long term re-rate. But for me, based on Oliveira's selling, topping up further is not worth the risk, as I think it'll go lower short term. IF it hits low to mid 50s, it probably is, that for me is the floor.

55p is half the placing level at which directors bought in, and they must think they're on to something big to invest £700k each of their own savings, when they're earning £102k.

Time, and results, will tell - and I'm increasingly hacked off at the Board's reluctance to show their hand.

Agree 100% Phil.

For the simple fact game changing news could land, I still believe in the potential of the company, and think we'll get a significant re-rate on moving to a P3 trial.

Then again, I thought that at 90p, 80p, 70p, and in hindsight I wish I had sold up and bought back in - as a recall you saying you'd done for at least a portion of your holding.

Now we know Oliveira's selling up, I don't see 60p holding as a floor. 50p may do, as below that my guess is he could begin to start selling at a loss. I hope I'm wrong, but believe we'll keep bleeding until there's a meaningful update, or we hit Oliveira's base price.

And with each day that passes without a meaningful update, it's entirely reasonable for one's scepticism to grow on how the open trials are progressing.

I won't be buying any more unless or until this hits mid 50s, possibly even lower, which looks increasingly likely. Oliveira has a lot to offload, I'm increasingly nervous at the Board's failure to give a decent 0518 update (is the data not that good?), and the fact they're now implying 2022 for some other programme updates which - just a few weeks ago, were promised by YE - is a further kick in the teeth.

Haven't sold any, I never expected it would decline to this point, and I do think medicine on the Microbiome will be significant in future. Who knows about 4D though.

We can keep saying it's a bargain Vs competitors etc, but ultimately no one's buying - including the Directors - so maybe the market isn't wrong here.

50-55p I may top up, anything above that the risk / reward ratio doesn't feel worth it. My guess is we'll be at that point within a week, we'll see.

The 'good' news is the science, on the basis of results so far, looks great and we're fully funded through to the end of next year, if milestones are met. We've been promised key updates this quarter.

The 'bad' news is we've not had a key oncology update yet, why?? And Oliveira's selling up could drove the SP a lot lower, easily into the 50s, when there's no sign of any institution jumping in to replace him.

Agree with Sangi that if you're confident in the science, and happy to work to a 3 year timescale, this could do very well; potentially very well on a shorter timescale even.

But with every day that passes, without an update, this feels riskier and riskier to me.

I said yesterday I'd consider topping up if this hit mid 60s, on balance I think it needs to hit mid 50s before I'll top up further - but that's because my portfolio is overweight on 4D as it is.

Each to their own though.

We're roughly £130m market cap now, and I think if the SP goes much lower (say £100m) we're vulnerable to a takeover.

Merck have a $16bn blockbuster drug in Keytruda, we have highly promising PII trials with it. Early stages of MRX0518 have had a positive response in 40% of end of line patients, one seeing a tumour reduction of >70%. The potential value there is enormous.

Add to that the thousands of patents & wider pipeline in development, including Blautix whjch is knocking in the door of a P3 trial hopefully, and that IP alone must be of interest to 4D's US competitors.

The biggest concern for me is takeover by private equity, who could act fast, and then seek to carve us up to big pharma or competitors, or fund the more promising pipelines in partnership with big pharma themselves. I know it's risky and drugs can take years to develop, but UK stocks are cheap (4D seems ludicrously cheap), and there's been an increasing trend in recent years of Private Equity making more and more investments in early stage pharma, despite the obvious risks, and it's a record year for Private Equity investment in the UK stockmarket which is generally unloved.

Some may think it far fetched, but prior to the Oliveira TR1, I'd had concerns some city collusion might have been driving down the share price to that end.

Hence, for me, 4D Directors need to focus much more on the SP than they're doing and give us better updates on the open trials. All well and good chatting to the FDA about accelerated approval, but forget the current SP at your peril.

Who knows, if they gave a positive Keytruda update now, Oliveira may decide to keep his remaining stake?

I'm very open to a contrary view on this though, some reassurance would be music to my ears!

I've sold nothing, arguably that is holding my nerve.

Reality is, however, we've had confirmation through the TR1 that there's a distressed seller, who still owns 10% of the company, and thus could offload a heck of a lot more and drive the SP a heck of a lot lower.

The only thing that could really change the dynamic, short term, is an update on keytruda or announcement on Blautix partnering into P3. Other trials would of course help though.

I'd hoped 90p would be a floor, then 80p, now 70p, but we've had a constant erosion in the SP since the Nasdaq listing, and the BOD (whilst shooting for the moon with accelerated FDA approvals etc) haven't done enough to shore the SP up short term.

Where is the Keytruda update promised in June, then late Summer/August?

If they're so confident in the science and the open label trials, why arent they topping up more themselves as a show of confidence?

The newsflow the next few months looks great, the science great, but anyone selling up now has completely valid reasons to be skeptical.

I've not sold a bean, if it drops to the 60s I may top up more, but let's not pretend all is rosy here either.

As it stands, if Duncan and Alex are so convinced in the products they're developing, then they risk giving it away for peanuts if the SP collapses.

You called it Sangijuelas. Agree with all the below, but I guess two reasons to be negative are:

1. Oliveira probably won't be happy just selling 1.8m shares, he's probably offloading more and that may see the SP drift lower; and

2. We've still not had the promised oncology update, & with each day that passes I get a little bit more nervous as to why that might be.

Open to being challenged on either point.

I've not sold any, I've not bought any more. It remains a long term hold for me. If it does drift significantly lower (mid 60s) I probably will be tempted to top up significantly.