Member Info for Cliostock

PGlancy, do you mean the discussion about the market dynamics around the recent SP? If so I have read that and yes enjoyed it very much. If not, I can’t see anything else, but Substack is awful for going back to a thread when you have already read part of it and want to check for new comments.

And yes Oleric, Josh is clearly a very bright chap. Unless he is on there trolling a Nordic guy called Hojs.

Agreed, seeing their current offering and the costs and side affects I can see why Superdrug wanted the exclusivity as it would be a huge USP for them. Also, I was first concerned about going into only 25% of the store portfolio initially, as I was thinking that Superdrug would not do any kind of national advertising if the product wasn’t available in most stores to start with, however if it’s available online that satisfies me that it would be beneficial for them to do an awareness campaign.

A very appropriate article Aquae.

“ Superdrug has trained hundreds of pharmacists who can offer free consultations on skin conditions such as acne – the kind of service it may be difficult to access via a GP.”

Just had another listen to the recent interview.

Definitely sounds as though we should get the Croda revenues received in an RNS on Monday as it’s the last day of June.

We have had our invites for the IMC on Thursday 3rd July to cover the Superdrug deal.

The interview was pretty clear the broker note was imminent, and then SA went to say it should be out in the next week or so (said on 19th June, a week and a day ago). He said the broker note would contain the Croda forecasts and the Superdrug forecasts.

If the Croda numbers are in line or better, and the broker note is released Tuesday or Wednesday, plus the IMC, next week could be the best ever week in the history of SBTX. Fingers crossed.

I was surprised to see an RNS this morning, as I was sure the Croda numbers would be waiting until the very last minute. Sure enough it looks like Monday. I didn’t want the numbers to come today, only for the news to peter out over the weekend. I’d rather Monday when there is a whole week of trading sessions for the numbers to percolate in the market on top of the break even EBITDA we have achieved. The boost of additional Superdrug discussion mid week will only help that.

Net, it’s a bit premature to be disappointed, we know how Croda have been with this NDA it’s hardly a surprise that the numbers would come at the very last minute. It was always going to be Monday! Be disappointed if they haven’t come by Tuesday, and be disappointed all over Ashman’s inbox!

Filtered

The investor base.

Dustbin, nobody is suggesting that SA will put out the sales to the end of June next week, what we are expecting is an RNS stating what royalty income has been received so far. We are expecting not a jot more than what SA has said himself that we will receive.

Shychap, how do I arrive at my break even conclusions; it’s easy for me to understand my own thought process but sorry if I didn’t explain it well enough. Manprit Randhawa said in an IMC that we would be running cash flow positively after the 30th June 25 year end. The year leading up to the quoted year end should contain revenue of 5.3m, and the full year forecast if we would have had DT and BTS for a full year is 6.3m, which makes us cash flow positive from YE as we obviously continue to have DT and BTS from 30th June 25 onwards. So you can easily deduce that at current margins the revenue required to break even is between 5.3m and 6.3m. At that time we were told Croda revenues were not incorporated, so we know Croda and Superdrug profits add straight to the positive bottom line. Your comment “which to me indicates we won’t break even next year either”, I would recommend going through the last few IMC’s and particularly the short segments where Manprit is talking. So you haven’t said anything to change my mind about my thoughts on our position in 18-24 months although I am open to that and understand there is a bear case based around stuff not happening as expected/implied.

Regarding your superb list of queries - I could answer 4 or 5 of those just by being generally switched on recently to the company announcements and Elrics interview. The rest you would have to either email SA, who may answer an email asking one or two but will quite rightly not sink a day into such a request; you can ask each question individually at the IMC, you will probably get a few answers and the others may or may not be answered after the presentation. Or alternatively to that, an independent journalist that follows the company may be able to help get those answers, which is a more efficient use of our CEO’s time as he could answer the same question for 100 people that may otherwise ask individually, and furthermore is actually likely to get a much more detailed answer than SA is legally obliged to give you otherwise.

“soft, fawning and lacking in cojones.” Allow me to feed back to you that this is unnecessarily rude. Elric has said post interview that he was nervous because he knew what was riding on the interview for investors, and if you listen to it a few times over you will hear that some of the questions he is accused of not asking he does ask, and quite directly. Elric may be no Emily Maitlis, but he extracts a thousand times more information than a Proactive interview. Plus he still agrees to conduct the interviews even though they have to be open source as per SA’s instructions. You wouldn’t find FT dropping their paywall on the request of a CEO simply for the good of

Toyin, totally agree on the order of service as you have set out, and I have emailed SA to a.) thank him for the time to do the podcast, b.) point out that he has said we will have Croda revenues received before the end of June and it is essential these are provided, c.) make clear that the broker forecasts won’t be trusted if the Croda numbers are not in, d.) the IMC to discuss all the above should come last. I think we’re pretty much on the same page there and I’m sure you have emailed him also.

If I may move the topic along from the recent unpleasantness in abundance below, I too have now listened to the latest EL/SA podcast several times and also found more information every time. I think as someone else has pointed out, the answers are mostly in there, just not necessarily immediately after the question was asked, SA obviously had a lot to cover.

Where my thoughts have been since are thinking about the aftermath of the broker note dropping. I’m going to throw out some napkin mathematics, and see if you agree.

We were previously told that the company should effectively be break even from the end of June 25 onwards. This tells us that at current margins, the income for this financial year (5.3m) is not enough to B/E, but with a full year of BTS, Dermatonics and Axis web sales (6.3m) we would have broken even without Croda revenues. So we know any profit from Croda (100% margin) and Superdrug (unknown margins, but £4m to prepare tells us we are not expecting the sales to be peanuts) all drops onto the bottom line. Note Ashman’s clarity on Croda not being ‘a flop’. We know the market looks 18 months ahead, when it has the figures and is not in a false market, of course. I am going to hazard an educated guess that when Croda and Superdrug are in full flow in 18-24 months, that those analysts are going to be forecasting £5m net profit, given that the foundations have been laid this year for B/E plus, and Croda and Superdrug profits are on top.

Applying a PE of 30, which I think is fair given the potential growth rate, that puts the SP at approximately 60p. The variables are the profit forecast and the PE achieved, but both could be higher or lower. Other reasoned opinions welcome.

And there is the reassurance we needed. Broker note out within the next week or so. Stuart categorically saying Zenakine is not a flop, which was my main fear after the timing of the placing. He is right in saying there is green ticks in two pillars now; plus two great acquired businesses. Fun month incoming!

Think 90% of PI’s want some reassurance Nick!

Mad, agree with most of your post. It’s good that David Brierwood has built his position to over 8% and it’s awesome to have another revenue stream in Superdrug to sit alongside Croda and the acquired companies. 4 revenue streams, two of them being bohemoths, one being a growing brand with global reach and one being a manufacturer which by proxy now manufactures for global brands and bohemoths, well that’s really something to be applauded.

We need the numbers now though. The foundations are laid for a real rerate, the expectations have been laid for this month, we get to find out if Stuart has been walking the walk or just talking the talk…

Bel I’m sceptical until we’ve heard more from Ashman but I think that’s a bit of an extreme viewpoint to take.

I’m afraid they won’t net. It’s the fat cats that get the free money, not us. We are providing the money, incase you hadn’t figured that out!

I think we need the exclusive that SA promised Elric. I’m prepared to hold judgement until we have heard what he has got to say. The Superdrug listing and the NPF listings are both individually fantastic bits of news, however the placing seems pretty big. I thought we already had the capability to make products in capsule form through BTS, so that raised an eyebrow. If the products are in Superdrug stores by September and generating revenue and along with Croda that does make us profitable I could be happy with that, but I want to know if that will be the case now, not results 2026. So please speak up Mr.Ashman!

On another note the RNS seemed to be of an improved standard, another positive.

With all due respect Olds lots of holders here have patiently held for 5/7 years or more, it’s not about how long or short the wait is until x, y or z happens. It’s about the fair production of value for shareholders in reasonable timescales, the timescales which have been previously indicated. Lots of holders are not willing to be held off another year whilst our board take hundreds of thousands in salaries. It’s working for them even when it is not working for us. Good or bad it’s at least time for us to be given the respect of being able to ascertain the true value of our investments. Again a simple and fair request.

You can call me simple, but an experienced PLC CEO shouldn’t need to be warned of landmines, nor need to complain of having feet held to the fire. What’s wrong with communicating a fair expectation of what’s to come and then working to achieve it? Anything more or less than the above is damaging to shareholders.

Toyin, thanks for the post with the timing on there, I’ve been to have a look and you are of course correct. The reason for my intrigue is; why would Stuart commit to releasing numbers before financial year end, when he could just wait a few weeks and release them with the results? They have already said they have the capabilities to get the results together pretty quickly. I realise the market and investors need this ridiculous, forecast free, false market period to end asap, but I really hope he’s not setting himself up for another fall, i.e not releasing the numbers and then acting like we were crazy for expecting it when the results are only weeks away.